Padres System Analysis: Trades Have Depleted Majority of San Diego's Prospect Capital

Editor's note: Padres Mission spoke with two industry experts about the state of the San Diego Padres' minor-league system, what they have done right, what they have done wrong and how they got to this state. This is the first of four articles on the subject.

There is no question about it. The San Diego Padres enter this weekend’s draft with the worst minor-league system in baseball. So says Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic and ESPN.

That is the price the Padres have paid, and more specifically president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, to keep the major-league roster in contender status. The churn of acquiring prospects either through the draft or international free agency, developing said prospects, then shipping out those prospects to add talent to the major-league roster has taken a significant toll on the organization.

No trade deadline took a bigger bite out of the system than 2025, when Preller made five deals on deadline day that reaped seven players, but shipped 14 to other franchises. Basically, they traded half a full minor-league affiliate, including one of the top prospects in all of baseball, for those seven players, all but one added to the major-league roster.

The exiting talent originally came to the organization from all avenues. Six were their own draft picks (one from 2021, five from 2024), three were international free agents (2017, 2019, 2024), two were undrafted free agents (2022, 2024), one was a minor-league free agent (2024), one was a Rule 5 pick (2023), and another arrived in a trade (2024). The headliner in that exit party, of course, was shortstop Leo De Vries, who was a top-five prospect in all of baseball at the time the Padres shipped him to the A’s for all-world closer Mason Miller and left-handed starter JP Sears. The cost for outfielder Ramon Laureano and first baseman Ryan O’Hearn was five draft picks from 2024, including second-round left-hander Boston Bateman, third-round shortstop Cobb Hightower and fourth-round right-hander Tyson Neighbors.

But it really left the cupboard pretty bare. And as we approach the 2026 trade deadline of Aug. 3, the Friars are on the outside of the playoff picture and need a roster boost. So the big question is: What do the Padres have left to deal and is it enough to acquire anything of consequence?

The biggest assets the Friars have are Padres Mission’s No. 1 and No. 2 prospects, catcher Ethan Salas and left-handed starter Kash Mayfield. Right-hander Miguel Mendez, our No. 3 prospect, and center fielder Ryan Wideman, No. 4 in our rankings, are also certain to be hot names bandied about in front-office discussions.

Any deals the Padres make this year in order to contend will make an already-barren system more so.

“It's the thinnest it's been probably since after A.J. Preller's first year, when he traded Trea Turner and a bunch of other prospects to try to build a win-now roster and that didn't work,” said Keith Law, senior baseball writer at The Athletic who analyzes prospects across the sport. “And then he went about it kind of his way after that, I think, in terms of trying to really lean heavily into scouting, player development, building a huge stable of prospects and then using those guys later on to build a roster and to trade to try to supplement that roster.

“But I think we sort of now have reached the other end of that cycle, right? He's gone all the way sort of up the mountain and now we've come back down the other side, where it's Ethan Salas, and maybe an interesting pitcher or two. And I do like Ty Harvey, so I don't want to be too dismissive, but it's kind of Ethan Salas and not a lot else.”

No one ever wants to admit they are the worst at anything from a professional point of view, but sometimes simple analysis tells the story.

“Anybody with the Padres will tell you they don't view it that way (as the worst system),” said Sam Dykstra, a senior reporter at MLB Pipeline. “They always think that the next crop of good Padres players or good next trade pieces are in the organization, people just haven't seen it yet. We're starting to see a little bit of that spring through this year, but it's still something that, I mean, you trade away a Leo De Vries, you trade away as many other just depth pieces that they have in recent years and I would struggle to say it's a deep system in any way. Now, again, there are still some interesting pieces here, there have been some nice breakouts this year, some nice development stories. But as far as overall health of the farm system, it's still pretty tough.”

That will make Preller's job more difficult as the trade deadline approaches if the Padres are buyers.

Interested in learning more about the San Diego Padres' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!