Can Luis Campusano (Finally) Break the Padres' Catching Curse?

The year is 2020. Olivia Rodrigo is working on a new album. The Trump administration is trying to figure out what to do with Iran. And San Diego Padres catcher Luis Campusano is primed for a breakout.

It seems the more things change, the more they stay the same.

It was that Covid year when Padres fans became aware of Campusano. After slashing .325/.396/.509 with Single-A Lake Elsinore in 2019, he became a top-100 prospect in every ranking that mattered, and in a Padres system stocked with talent, he was the catcher of the future. (Remember when MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, and Luis Patiño were going to change the trajectory of the franchise?) Campusano got a cup of coffee in 2020, hitting a home run in his lone game in the bigs, and the Padres would end up winning their first playoff series in 22 years. The future looked bright. 

We’re still waiting for that future.

Now 27 years old, Campusano is in his seventh season with the Padres, yet he has accrued -0.7 bWAR. Fangraphs is kinder to him, with 0.1 wins above replacement, but in any case, the numbers tell the same story: Campusano hasn’t really excelled at anything.

The power he displays in the minors—79 homers with an .882 OPS in 504 games—disappears in the bigs. He owns a .668 OPS in San Diego, and has just 18 home runs to his name. His career on-base percentage is below .300. Per Statcast, he’s never hit the ball particularly hard or run particularly fast or fielded particularly well. That makes his start to the 2026 season encouraging, if a little confusing.

Heading into their weekend series against the Colorado Rockies, Campusano was sporting a 103 OPS+, making him one of the more productive catchers in baseball, but he had neither walked nor hit a home run. His performance on April 5 against the Red Sox is illustrative: A single, a run, and two strikeouts, and he was lifted late in the game for a pinch hitter and replaced defensively by Freddy Fermin. Is that what the Padres had in mind for their top catching prospect back in 2020?

But in a world in which Austin Hedges and his lifetime 53 OPS+ can have a 12-year MLB career, being a league-average hitter at the catcher position is incredibly valuable. Catchers are OPS-ing .673 this season, a number Campusano comfortably exceeds, and his underlying stats point to sustainability. His hard-hit percentage is up from last season, and so are his launch angle and barrel rate. He’s swinging more overall—and his chase rate remains abysmal—but at least he’s swinging more at good pitches and less at bad pitches. This means his strikeout rate is down (albeit marginally and from a lofty 41%). There’s potential there! And that’s always been the book on Campusano.

He played in only one game in 2020 because of a wrist injury. He had an elite campaign in the minors in 2021, and got some more MLB experience, but he couldn’t get regular time with the 2022 squad, which was the most talented Padres team ever. On a rate basis, 2023 was Campusano’s best major-league season. An OPS+ of 131 is nothing to sneeze at, but he played in only 49 games because of a shoulder injury. He split time in 2024 with a resurgent Kyle Higashioka, and in 2025, Campusano had an obscene 1.036 OPS… in Triple-A.

The Padres have long had one of the best farm systems in baseball, but it’s curious that the Mount Rushmore of Padres catchers would feature only three faces: Benito Santiago, Terry Kennedy, and Gene Tenace. The most recent that any of them have played for the Padres is 1992. Since the 1998 World Series year, there have been 18 different Opening Day starters at catcher, and in the current era, there’s a curious cycle of fading veterans becoming fan favorites—Jorge Alfaro, Gary Sanchez, et al.—only to quickly disappear amid more roster shuffling. In one way or another, the catcher position has been a black hole for the Padres for almost three decades. (Shoutout to Hedges, who did come up through the Padres system, but couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.)

As always, it’s tempting to get excited about the next catcher of the future. Ethan Salas is the Friars' highest-ranked position player in the minors, but he’s only nineteen years old. Campusano is the Padres’ best option behind the dish right now, at least in a world where Fermin has forgotten how to hit a baseball. No other catcher in the organization and no unsigned veteran have his hit tool. No other catcher in the organization and no unsigned veteran are in their prime age-27 season. This opportunity is something Campusano and the club have aspired to for years, and he finally has a chance to be a homegrown success story.

But first, he might want to stop swinging at everything.