What Will The Padres Rotation Look Like When It's Healthy? And Is That A Possibility?

The San Diego Padres have struggled to find a sense of security in their starting rotation in the early months of the 2025 season. Injuries to key starters have prevented San Diego from working with a full-strength rotation.

Currently, San Diego is fielding a starting rotation of Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vasquez, Stephen Kolek, and Ryan Bergert. This rotation is nothing to shake a stick at, but lacks the necessary experience to make a deep playoff run. 

The solidifying of the rotation will depend on the returns of Michael King and Yu Darvish, who are both currently on the injured list. 

Darvish, who is yet to pitch this season, has been a standout on the mound during his time with the Padres. He is coming off a 2024 campaign in which he pitched a 3.31 ERA and a 4.08 FIP. Darvish also shone in the 2024 postseason, putting up a 1.98 ERA throughout two games in a hard-fought series against the eventual champion Dodgers. 

The hope is that Darvish will return to the rotation in late June or early July. Despite it being unlikely that he will make it deep into games right out of the gate, a mid-season return allows enough time for him to return to form for a stretch run.

Darvish isn’t the only injured pitcher whose return will make a serious impact. King was arguably the Padres' best pitcher before going down with a pinched nerve in his right shoulder in May. He was dealing on the mound, continuing from the success of last season. In ten starts, King posted an impressive 2.59 ERA to go with a 1.4 FanGraphs WAR, the second-best amongst the club’s starters. 

A recent report does not present excellent news for King’s timeline to return, with a later expected return than expected. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported that “a return before the All-Star break has become increasingly unlikely.” 

Whenever it is, the return of King is consequential to the overall stability of the Padres’ rotation. His elite numbers thus far offer a glimpse into what could take the Padres to the next level, as they close out the regular season and head into the postseason. 

With the upcoming returns of two elite pitchers, it means that some of the club’s current starters will lose their spots in the rotation. 

Although Bergert has impressed in his first few outings, it would be highly out of the ordinary for a team chasing a pennant to lean on an inexperienced pitcher to start 20% of their games down the stretch. His 1.26 ERA, along with an exceptional first two starts, shows high promise for the future, but relying on him now is sub-optimal. 

After Bergert, it comes down to Vasquez or Kolek leaving the rotation. The two share eerily similar numbers this season, highlighting why it's a toss-up to decide which one to leave in the lineup. Kolek has a 3.50 ERA compared to Vasquez’s 3.57 and a 1.317 WHIP compared to Vasquez’s 1.397. 

The club’s decision between the two should hinge on how they perform during the next month, when Darvish and King remain sidelined. Should one considerably outperform the other, there is a clear choice to make, but it looks to remain a tough decision as it stands. 

What Kolek has in his favor is that he is a young, homegrown talent, which makes him a valuable asset to the Padres organization. It would not be surprising for San Diego to favor its talent when choosing between the two. 

Another option for this spot in the rotation is to acquire a starter at the trade deadline, preferably a southpaw. Every pitcher in the rotation is right-handed, so adding a lefty would better equip the rotation for a wider array of matchups. 

One spot in the rotation that is growing increasingly questionable is that of Cease. The Padres' ace is having a down year, posting a 4.69 ERA, though his FIP is a stellar 2.94 in 14 starts. Cease has struggled to make it far in games, averaging just 5.2 innings per outing. 

A team is nothing without its ace, so the best option for the club is to stand pat with Cease and hope he finds his stuff come October. 

Amongst the club’s healthy starters, there is one who leaves no question marks: Pivetta. He has risen to the occasion while his peers have been sidelined. The free agency acquisition has settled in nicely during his first season in San Diego, boasting a 3.48 ERA and 1.5 WAR, which is the best amongst Padres starters. In a season where pitching has been uncertain, Pivetta provides a sense of security on the mound. 

If all goes according to plan (which is a rarity in baseball), a healthy starting rotation can help lead a deep postseason run for the Padres. A rotation consisting of Cease, Pivetta, King, Darvish, and one of Kolek, Vasquez, or a deadline acquisition gives the Friars a chance to win night in and night out.