Will the Padres' Gamble on Giving Adrian Morejon the Qualifying Offer Pay Off?

[Steve Drumwright]

When taking a look at Adrian Morejon’s free-agent picture recently, I made a statement about San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller having a “nuclear option” to not allow the prized left-handed reliever leave town: to use the qualifying offer.

Well, Preller turned the key—with new owners Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones doing the same with the other key—on that nuclear option. They put the ball in Morejon’s hands.

Does Morejon want to stick around in 2027 for $23.15 million or hit the open market and get a career payday? He has until Nov. 17 to figure that out.

While Morejon would love to remain with the only franchise he has known since signing for a record $11 million bonus in 2016 as an international free agent as a 17-year-old, he is currently at his most marketable position in his career.

The 27-year-old is coming off his best season as he is eligible for free agency for the first time. His velocity was up from 97.6 mph in 2025 to 99.4 mph this year. He blew away his previous career high for strikeouts, punching out 107 this year after fanning 71 in 2024. He also made a career-high 76 appearances, fourth in MLB, and had 86 innings, easily beating his previous best of 73⅔ last year. His return would also bring back all but one member of the Padres' postseason bullpen: free-agent right-hander Jason Adam. That bullpen is the backbone of a franchise-record three consecutive trips to the postseason.

There are more numbers that put him among the elite of MLB relievers. But the decision for Morejon isn’t about numbers at the moment. Well, at least not those types of numbers.

No, the choice right now is what is the best move financially for Morejon.

Why Adrian Morejon Should Accept The Qualifying Offer

The biggest reason Morejon has to stay in San Diego is comfort. He knows what to expect from the Padres and the coaching staff. Yes, the $23.15 million is nice, too. That figure would make him the highest-paid reliever in MLB history, surpassing the $23,010,520 due Los Angeles Dodgers right-handed closer Edwin Diaz each of the next two years. Former Padres left-handed closer Josh Hader, now with the Houston Astros, is next at $19 million. The New York Yankees also gave their closer, right-hander David Bednar, the qualifying offer Monday.

Morejon, unlike Diaz and Hader, is a true set-up man, and he can help elevate the market for non-closers by taking the qualifying offer. He then could benefit from that in a number of ways. He can pitch like he has the last three seasons, the only ones he has been a full-season member of the Padres’ bullpen and hit free agency again this time next year, without the burden of a qualifying offer (and without the time crunch that he faces this year with the lockout).

Which is another reason for him to take the qualifying offer. The date of the lockout beginning is now less than a month away. Spending 10 or more days of that mulling whether to accept is wasting precious time, giving him about two weeks to get a lucrative deal from another contender, certainly making for a rushed process.

Of course, those 10 days can be used to work out a contract with the Padres. Surely Preller and Morejon’s agency, Evolv Sports Management, have already discussed a three- or four-year deal. Morejon has been projected to receive a contract with an average annual value anywhere from between $14 million and $20 million. Evolv also represents two other Padres players, Manny Machado and Jeremiah Estrada, for what it's worth.

One other—and not insignificant—reason to take the qualifying offer is Morejon’s health. The last we saw of Morejon, he was sitting in the Padres’ bullpen hoping for extra innings in Game 4 of the NL Division Series against the eventual World Series champion Milwaukee Brewers. He was warmed up and ready to come in had the Friars tied the game.

But before that, Morejon’s last action was the two innings he pitched in Game 1 of that series in which he gave up the go-ahead homer to William Contreras. Manager Craig Stammen would later reveal that Morejon couldn’t get his shoulder loose for either Games 2 or 3. The fact that he didn’t pitch in Game 4 calls into question whether he truly would have come in. That will be a question he will have to answer to each team that wants to sign him, prompting more medical scrutiny. Of course, the Padres know full well the status of Morejon’s shoulder, removing that part of the equation if he opts to re-sign or take the QO.

Lastly, the types of teams that will come after Morejon will be contenders that will be spending on other big-name free agents, some of whom will have received the qualifying offer like Morejon. The Philadelphia Phillies are one that comes to mind. The Phillies may also be pursuing outfielder Randy Arozarena, left-handed starter Trevor Rogers or right fielder Seiya Suzuki.

Signing teams will have to give up draft-pick compensation based on whether they are a luxury-tax payor. Signing one player can strip a team of two valuable draft picks. Doing that for two players ore more players is extremely rate, the draft capital often being too steep.

Why Adrian Morejon Should Reject The Qualifying Offer

MLB players typically get one good payday throughout their careers. A reliever of Morejon’s quality could get a second considering he will turn 28 a month before the scheduled Opening Day for 2027. The competition to sign him will be fierce, especially in a reduced window due to the lockout. Some team will offer Morejon four or even five years for a good price, which would allow for him to hit free agency for a second time following his age-31 or age-32 season. That's plenty of time for another good contract.

If, say, Morejon gets an AAV of between $15 million and $18 million, it could be as a closer, a role he would not fulfill with the Padres for at least two if not three years, depending on how the new collective-bargaining agreement treats the arbitration process in years to come, which would affect current closer Mason Miller. Miller is projected to make $8.1 million in 2027, per MLB Trade Rumors, and will increase significantly in the next two years of arbitration. That is quite a chunk of change for two relievers.

Morejon may also have the desire to start again, which he could do with the Padres as well. Eight of his first 16 career games were as a starter. But he had Tommy John surgery in April 2021, coming back in June 2022. He has been a reliever ever since, and his success in the role might make any talk of a transition back to starting a moot point.

What Will Adrian Morejon Do?

Bringing back Morejon was always the top priority of the Preller and the Padres. It would, at least in a small way, back up the claim of Feliciano and Jones of being all-in and giving the Friar Faithful something to latch onto before the dark days of the lockout hit.

If no new deal is reached, there's a very good chance Morejon will return for 2027 on the $23.15 million qualifying offer, giving him and the Padres another year to figure out their future together.

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