Can Jake Cronenworth Be The Padres' Secret Playoff Weapon?

The San Diego Padres have not been a particularly strong offensive team in 2025. They rank only 19th in runs scored (678), 28th in isolated power (.136), and 16th in their collective wOBA (.310). Where they have succeeded, however, infielder Jake Cronenworth has very much been a fixture. 

There are a handful of components working against Cronenworth from a narrative perspective. From a chronological standpoint, the first is his breakout 2021 campaign. Therein, he posted an ISO figure of .194 while hitting 24 home runs. He's failed to replicate that power output in subsequent seasons. What that season did do, though, is earn him a contract that counts over $12 million in payroll beginning next year and running through 2030. While hardly a prohibitive amount in today's money, the team's constant battle against alleged payroll constraints has done him no favors when juxtaposed against the idea of that '21 campaign being an outlier on the power side. 

That doesn't mean Cronenworth is without value to these Padres, of course. 

Where the Padres have succeeded in 2025 is in their ability to work their way on base. Despite some of their issues producing runs, they rank eighth in batting average (.252) and 12th in on-base percentage (.320). Even enduring the worst power season of his career (.134 ISO), it's in this area where Cronenworth has been a regular provider for the San Diego lineup. 

Cronenworth's 2025 slash reads .246/.368/.380. His 20.6 K% does read as a career-high, but so does his 13.5 percent walk rate. It's the latter figure that has proven to be a key cog within this lineup. As a team, the Padres sit below league average (3.87) in pitches per plate appearance (3.84). Cronenworth, however, ranks eighth in this regard (4.22). That's eighth among 146 qualifying hitters, with an 86th percentile chase rate (22.2 percent). Which is why we care less about the strikeout rate, as it's clearly more a byproduct of his working deep counts than anything related to his ability to generate contact (for what it's worth, his contact rate and whiff trends (82nd percentile) are just about all within roughly one percent of his career averages).

What Cronenworth has managed to do in this more recent stretch is parlay that approach into positive outcomes. There are a couple of things working in his favor, primarily from a mechanical standpoint. The first is bat speed: 

Apart from a small, 12-game sample in April that ended early due to a rib injury, May marked Cronenworth's highest power output across an individual month this season (.194 ISO). The bat speed was up coming off the injury before plummeting in the months that followed. It's back up now, though, which reads as especially important when you consider it in conjunction with the tilt of his swing path: 

It hasn't been a perfect process, as his actual attack angle is just now coming up after dropping to its lowest point in August, but there's a concerted effort here from Cronenworth to generate more elevated contact. Combine that with the bat speed, and you have a player that could very well be on the cusp of a power breakout. Sure enough, his expected slug is indicative of such a possibility: 

The caveat to all of this, of course, is that a bat speed increase does not necessarily correlate with a higher volume of power output. When we factor in Cronenworth's keen approach against the trends in his mechanics, there's absolutely reason to believe that he could be a massive factor for the team by the time we reach October. 

What a boost that would be, too. Despite strong months from each of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, they're still only 14th in runs, 19th in ISO, and 17th in wOBA this month. A .260 BABIP may be pinning down Cronenworth's numbers at present, but there's significant reason to believe that positive regression could be on the way in the (extremely) near future. The timing couldn't be better, should it come to fruition.