Checking In With The Padres As We Enter The Final Month Of The 2025 Season

Having played through the end of August, the San Diego Padres have had a relatively successful season so far. They currently hold a record of 76 wins and 62 losses, which places them in second place in the division. After the last game of August, the team trails the Los Angeles Dodgers by only 2.5 games. The season series between the two teams is over, and the Dodgers won, giving them the tiebreaker should there be a tie for first at the end of the season.

Their position in the division is pretty comfortable, with the third-place Giants being eight games behind them. The early-season scare of having to compete with San Francisco and the Dodgers for the division has completely dissipated, and the Padres have significantly distanced themselves from the Giants in the division standings.

Although their position is pretty comfortable, they are far from locked in at second place and have a real shot at the division crown.

September has eight series in store for the Padres, five at home and three on the road. They will face the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, and Arizona Diamondbacks at the confines of Petco Park. The three remaining road series are with the Colorado Rockies, New York Mets, and Chicago White Sox.

The bats have been very alive for the regular everyday starters. All of the regular position players, other than Elias Diaz, have an OPS higher than .700.

The statistical offensive leaders for this season have been Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. Both Machado and Tatis Jr. lead the team in both OPS and OPS+. Machado has posted a .814 OPS and a 122 OPS+, while Tatis Jr. has played to a .800 OPS and a 120 OPS+.

Machado and Tatis Jr. are both in the top three or better in WAR, batting average, runs, hits, home runs, runs batted in, and stolen bases.

It is worth mentioning that Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn have also been productive. Still, I am not counting them among the top performers because they have not played many games in a Padres jersey since being acquired from the Orioles.

There has been a pretty noticeable regression from one Padres player who was expected to make another big step in his game this season. That regression has come from Jackson Merrill. The numbers have dropped across the board for Merrill, most notably OPS and OPS+. His OPS has dropped nearly 100 points, and his OPS+ has dropped 26 points to a league-average 100. Granted, he has missed significant time this season, but the regression does not look good after the Padres gave him a long-term extension.

As a collective unit, the Padres’ offense has been far from the best in baseball. They have performed below average in several key offensive categories, including runs, home runs, runs batted in, and stolen bases. The story is the same for calculated metrics as well, with the team logging below league-average marks in OPS and OPS+. This, paired with the regular everyday starters putting up solid numbers, could indicate that the team is top-heavy in terms of offensive production.

In terms of pitching, Nick Pivetta has been far and away the best starter so far. Over 158.1 innings, Pivetta has amounted to 4.8 WAR, which leads all pitchers. In 27 starts, he has pitched to a 2.84 ERA, while only giving up 50 earned runs on 107 hits. He has fanned 167 batters and handed out just 42 walks, giving him a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.98.

Michael King would likely be in the running for best pitcher of the season so far, but limited innings of work have reduced his value. In 57.2 innings this season, King has thrown to a 2.81 ERA and a 1.4 WAR. Had he been able to stay on the mound this season, it is not far-fetched to imagine that he would put up a fight with Pivetta for the title of most productive pitcher of the 2025 season so far.

The pitching staff as a whole has been one of the best in the sport. The Padres’ arms have performed well enough to make them a top-six unit in earned runs, home runs, and WHIP. Padres pitchers have given up just 1002 hits, the least amount by any team’s pitching staff.

As it stands after the last game of August, the Padres hold the second National League Wild Card spot. They have a three-game lead on the Mets, who hold the third spot. The Cincinnati Reds are the first team on the outside looking in, and they would need to make up seven games on the Padres if they want to jump them for the final spot.