Core Or Out The Door? Padres Trade Candidates, #1-5

With the offseason now in full gear and rumors flying about the San Diego Padres' ownership changing hands, difficult decisions might have to be made. This is part two of a series where we’ll analyze the Padres’ ten best players and how likely each player is to be traded this offseason.

5. RP Mason Miller

Pros: Miller is a flamethrowing reliever who has the ability to absolutely dominate lineups. His fastball averaged 101.2 MPH last season, placing him in the 100th percentile, and his Baseball Savant page is full of bright red. He’s also controlled by the team for the next four seasons, making him valuable and team friendly. Next season, he’ll either be the Padres’ closer or join the rotation. 

Cons: Miller’s only hole is his high walk rate, which last year was as high as 12%. He did bring his walk rate down after being traded to San Diego, and his K/BB ratio improved from 3.28 to 4.5 after the trade. There’s no way San Diego would trade the guy they gave up their No. 1 prospect for just a few months ago. 

Chances of trade: 0%

4. SP Nick Pivetta

Pros: Pivetta broke out in a huge way in 2025, stepping up to become the ace of the San Diego rotation. He finished the season with a 3.49 FIP and a 149 ERA+, helping him garner Cy Young consideration at the end of the season. His fastball and breaking balls mixed at an elite level last year, with his fastball run value finishing in the 98th percentile and his breaking run value finishing in the 97th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. 

Cons: There is reason to think Pivetta might not be able to replicate his success from 2025 again in 2026. He finished the season with an xERA of 3.96, which would have been much closer to his career ERA of 4.23. There’s also the issue of his contract opt-out, which takes effect after the 2026 season. Pivetta could opt out after 2026 and after 2027, so there’s a chance San Diego will lose him soon anyway. Between the ‘one-year wonder’ possibility and the high likelihood he opts out if he puts together another good season in 2026, it feels like a lose-lose scenario. If the Padres had rotation depth, trading Pivetta would make a lot of sense. However, the team has very little of that, so he probably sticks around. 

Chances of trade: 20%

3. CF Jackson Merrill

Pros: Merrill is likely the future of the Padres’ franchise. He possesses tremendous tools at the plate, on the basepaths, and in the field. Even in a down year, Merrill finished in the 99th percentile in launch-angle sweet-spot rate, according to Baseball Savant. He posted a batting run value in the 69th percentile, a baserunning value in the 84th percentile, and a Fielding Run Value in the 80th percentile, and had even better rates in 2024, when he was the runner-up for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Merrill has 'future star' written all over him. The Padres have him under contract for the next ten years on an affordable deal, owing him $156 million through 2035. That contract being so team-friendly likely eliminates the possibility of a trade. 

Cons: Merrill did have a sophomore slump, and if the Padres have questions about his potential, a trade could be explored. He doesn’t walk much and struggles with plate consistency. However, those issues can be corrected, especially for a player as young as Merrill. 

Chances of trade: 2%

2. 3B Manny Machado 

Pros: Machado has received MVP votes in five of the last six seasons, including a pair of top-three finishes in 2020 and 2022. He has been a cornerstone of consistency, with his worst season in San Diego (2019) still resulting in a 110 OPS+ and 2.5 bWAR. He’s a three-time All-Star selection and three-time Silver Slugger since joining the Padres, and at 32, just had his best season in three years. 

Cons: Similar to most players on this list, Machado is owed a big payday over the next few years, and it is worth wondering if he is beginning to slow down as he ages. From 2013-2022, Machado averaged 5.0 bWAR per season over the ten-year span. Over the past year, he’s averaged 3.3 bWAR. Still good, but it does appear that Machado has been slowing down over the past three years. And as he slows down, the money heading his way goes up. He is owed $298.7 million over the next eight seasons. There might be a team desperate for help at third base that would be willing to trade for Machado, but if the Padres intend to move off his contract, there’s a good chance this offseason is their last chance. Machado is coming off an All-Star campaign, and he’s only going to get older from here. 

Chances of trade: 15%

1. RF Fernando Tatis Jr. 

Pros: Tatis is considered to be the best defensive right fielder in the league, a winner of two Gold Gloves in three years, and the Platinum Glove in 2025. His bat isn’t too shabby either, with an .868 OPS in his career. While he still hasn’t matched the 166 OPS+ and 6.6 bWAR he produced in 2021, he is at minimum an above-average bat, and still has the talent of a superstar. 

Cons: Tatis is expensive. Very expensive. San Diego has him signed through 2034, and owes him $294.2 million over the next nine years. If there is a team that wants to take on that contract and trade the Padres' valuable resources for him, it’s worth at least considering a trade. The Friars' farm system is barren, and Tatis would likely be able to bring back some serious talent. Still, it feels unlikely the team trades its franchise cornerstone. 

Chances of trade: 10%