Fernando Tatis Jr. Is (Somehow) Still Among Baseball's Best In 2025

Nobody is suggesting that the stretch of time since the middle of May has revealed anything special about Fernando Tatis Jr. The San Diego Padres right fielder remains a superstar player with a standard set by multiple years of upper-tier performance. However, it's also fairly clear that since that point the Padres have not been deploying the same player in their lineup as they did in the year's earlier portion. 

Tatis Jr. came out of the gate absolutely blazing. Serving as the team's leadoff hitter, he went on a scorching run of play at the plate that propelled San Diego out to a start that had them hanging with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in one of the league's most competitive division. But, for whatever reason since May 15th, Tatis has not been the same player. Sure, we've speculated about mechanical issues or approach changes, and we'll offer a few other suggestions before this text runs out. What's interesting, though, is that despite the lull since mid-May, Tatis' output still remains one of the league's best from a cumulative standpoint.

The following is where Fernando Tatis Jr. sat at each end of our circled date on the calendar: 

• Through May 15th: .308/.383/.508, 16.7 K%, 10.6 BB%, .252 ISO, 163 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

There were 163 qualifying hitters in that early stretch of the year. Tatis' average ranked 16th, and both his on-base percentage and isolated slugging ranked 21st. His wRC+ checked in at No. 10, and his overall Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs, pegged him as a top-five player. The defense helped to supplement the offense, but it's not as if the production was pinning him down in any meaningful way; he was one of the league's best hitters as of May 15th.

• Since May 16th: .205/.314/.325, 17.7 K%, 12.0 BB%, .119 ISO, 87 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR

Again, nothing surprising here. Tatis' game has fallen off severely from an offensive standpoint. While he's still managed to work his way on base via the walk — and simultaneously avoided turning a solid approach into a ballooned strikeout rate — the power has dissolved. Among the 169 players that qualify, Tatis' average is 155th, his on-base percentage ranks 107th, and his isolated power ranks 119th. It's true that fWAR's perceptive eyes still have him hanging in at 64th, but that defensive component is doing much more heavy lifting than it had to back in March & April. Interestingly, though, such a barren offensive stretch hasn't done much to hurt him in the broader picture of 2025.

• 2025 Overall: .258/.349/.445, 17.2 K%, 11.3 BB%, .187 ISO, 125 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR

The most striking thing about the overall production for Tatis is in the WAR figure there. On the merits of that concept, he's been one of the top dozen position players in baseball. But, when you start picking apart the individual offensive components among the 158 players that qualify for the full season, it doesn't look nearly as rosy. His average is 81st, his on-base percentage is 50th, and his isolated power is 55th. If you were looking at wRC+, he's the 49th-best hitter in the sport in 2025. 

However, that's not necessarily our concern here. The aim is simply to look at the two sides of Tatis' season to date and see how much of the work that first half is doing for him. Or, at least, what's responsible for keeping him among the league leaders in overall value given what we've seen these last couple months.

At first blush, it's a lot of work on the part of his March/April performance. That he's still well within the top half in terms of power, in particular, speaks to how strong the start was, to say nothing of the wRC+ data. That he's been able to maintain some value doesn't ring as quite surprising, however, as the approach has largely been maintained. In fact, many of the underlying components of Tatis have carried over. His swing rates, whiff rates, and contact rates are all steady. 

Which represents something very frustrating, but also speaks to the idea that the player we've seen since May 16th isn't entirely different from the one we saw before. He's not making quite as much hard contact, and he's hitting the ball on the ground just enough to hurt him in the box score seemingly every night out. That's led to a brutal .233 BABIP against a .319 mark he was able to post in the stretch prior. Regardless, it does lead us to the fairly obvious conclusion that Tatis is still hanging in there among the league's best hitters due to his outcomes before May 16th, especially as far as the power aspect goes, even if there is some reason to be positive given some of the underlying stuff. 

If we're looking at just how Fernando Tatis Jr. remains a top-12 player heading into July, though, his defense is primarily responsible for that—maybe even exclusively considering how the year has transpired. Tatis sits eighth in Fielding Run Value (9), trailing only Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela (13), Chicago's Pete Crow-Armstrong (12), and Seattle's Julio Rodríguez (10) in total defensive value. Both his range and his arm have him hanging in the top-15 or so defenders, regardless of position. 

So, it's not so much that one half of the year is doing more for his stats from an offensive standpoint. It's that he's done enough on the defensive side to compensate for whatever shortcomings might be present in his bat. Nevertheless, the calendar flipping over to July is an opportunity for Tatis Jr to clear the slate and get a little bit of lift back in his swing. If everything else holds, luck at the plate has to shift back in his favor at some point. And, if not, he'll always have a chance to impress with the glove.