Five Bold Predictions for the Padres In 2026

The 2026 Major League Baseball season is just a few weeks away. Here are five bold predictions that could define the San Diego Padres in 2026.

Jackson Merrill emerges as team captain

Watch for a leadership change in the clubhouse from Manny Machado to Jackson Merrill. Machado has been the effective leader of the Padres ever since he joined the team before the 2019 season. Since then, we have seen how Machado-led teams have played out.

That is no indictment on Machado — he is a great player, but we've also seen him spare a lot more heart and soul in the World Baseball Classic. Merrill has shown multiple times that he has the ability to be effective in a leadership role. He was the only member of the team who publicly said there was more work to do after the team clinched a postseason spot in 2025. He showed the same leadership quality when he put some life into the offense after going yard to lead off the top of the ninth inning when the Padres were down to their final breath against the Chicago Cubs in the winner-take-all Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. An evolution off the field for the center fielder would be just as important as any step forward on it.

Manny Machado has one last MVP-level season

Speaking of Machado, the veteran third baseman was about as productive at the plate in 2025 as he had been in 2023 and 2024. He was good in all three seasons, posting well-above-average metrics in OPS and OPS+. Machado will turn 34 years old this season, and while he is still a very good player, his name seems to have lost some of the luster it had around the baseball world a few years back. Keep an eye on Machado to have a “remember who I am” season, posting similar numbers to his 2022 campaign, when he finished second in the National League Most Valuable Player race. He may not win it this time, because a third straight Shohei Ohtani MVP award feels almost inevitable at this point, but don’t be surprised if he hits 30+ home runs, has a batting average of .300 or above, and posts an OPS in the low-to-mid-900s.

Ethan Salas gets traded in another AJ Preller “win now” deal

When Leo De Vries got traded to the Athletics, it really showed the baseball world how much AJ Preller and the Padres front office want to win during Machado’s prime and the lengths they are willing to go to do it. De Vries was believed to be an almost-untouchable prospect in the Padres farm system, and Preller packaged him in a deal for Mason Miller at the 2025 trade deadline.

Ethan Salas doesn't have the same pedigree after a lost 2025 campaign, which makes moving him for a proven piece anything but far-fetched. Don’t be surprised if Salas gets shipped away in a deal to address an urgent need in a similar fashion to De Vries. What kind of deal he would be included in would be determined by the needs of the team. If there is an urgent need for a starting pitcher, Preller could include Salas in a deal to acquire someone like Joe Ryan of the Twins or perhaps even Tarik Skubal of the Tigers, if either AL Central team finds itself in a position to sell in July.

If there is a need for a bat, a move to acquire Bryce Harper from the Philadelphia Phillies could be possible if the Phillies have a bad first half. It was not too long ago that Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski appeared to be subtly taking shots at Harper, alluding to him not being quite the elite player in 2025 that he had been before. Harper has a history of being known as a big-ego guy and might still feel disrespected by what Dombrowski said, so he could find himself wanting out if the aging Phillies show major regression in the first half of 2026.

Mason Miller steps into the closer role and leads all of baseball in saves

The Padres' closer role became open when Robert Suarez left to join the Atlanta Braves in free agency. Look for Mason Miller to take over the role and dominate. He was very good in 2025, as he posted a 2.63 ERA over 61 2/3 innings. Miller was even better after being traded from the Athletics to the Padres; in 22 games with the Friars, he posted a 0.77 ERA over 23 1/3 innings. He only recorded two saves as a Padre because Suarez got the bulk of the save opportunities after the trade. In a full season working with pitching coach Ruben Niebla, don’t be shocked if Miller puts up around 45 saves and pitches to an ERA somewhere between 2.00 and 2.50. A season of that magnitude from Miller would almost certainly make him a consensus top-three closer in the sport, if he's not there already.

Craig Stammen uses his reliever experience to manage bullpen arms better than Mike Shildt

One of the biggest criticisms Mike Shildt faced in 2025 was his decision-making regarding when he pulled starters and which relievers he brought in after pulling them. He said publicly that he used the bullpen aggressively in an attempt to win as many games as possible, although many fans speculated that it did a number on the durability of the pitchers’ arms. Craig Stammen, the new manager of the Padres, was a relief pitcher for more than a decade, so he should know first hand how to avoid overworking bullpen arms.