Free Agents, Trades, & Homegrown Stars: How The Padres Reformed From Mediocrity To Contenders

For the first 20 years of the 21st century, the San Diego Padres saw a lot of mediocre seasons without much success. Having only made the postseason twice over that stretch, the franchise was not heavily respected or seen as a very high-functioning organization.

Over those two decades, there was not a lot to be excited about going on with the Padres, and the team saw a lot of forgettable seasons. They finished in last place in the division standings eight times, fourth place five times, and third place four times. 2010 saw a second-place finish from the Padres, but they did not make the postseason. They did win the division twice, in 2005 and 2006, but played to a combined 1-6 record in two National League Divisional Series.

Over the span of 2000 to 2019, the Padres only played winning baseball five times, finishing with a record below .500 15 times. The consistent mediocrity was a big factor in the Padres being viewed as a second-tier franchise in Major League Baseball.

However, that narrative shift began when the Padres landed Manny Machado before the 2019 season. 

Many teams were offering the 26-year-old superstar long-term deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Big market teams such as the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, and Chicago White Sox pursued signing Machado and offered him big contracts. The baseball world was thrown for a loop when Machado chose the Padres, especially after it was widely believed that the Padres were out of the race.

The addition of the superstar third baseman to the Padres' roster is not the most significant aspect of their winning the Machado sweepstakes. The most significant part was that a highly sought-after free agent willingly chose the Padres over the other teams involved in trying to recruit him.

Whether it was planned as such or not, the signing of Machado was the first step in the process of reforming the Padres franchise, setting the organization up for sustained success.

The next step came in 2021, when Fernando Tatis Jr. signed a long-term contract extension to stay in San Diego for over a decade. Tatis Jr. had broken out as a superstar in his first two seasons and was looking like a lock to be among the sport’s best in terms of player productivity, so the Padres wanted to keep him in town, and they were willing to dig into their pockets to do so.

This contract extension is so significant because Tatis Jr. is the type of player that the Padres historically have moved off of to avoid paying big money to. That is what they did with Adrian Gonzalez after the 2010 season. Whatever the reasoning was for the organization deciding to pay Tatis Jr., the decision to dish out superstar money to a homegrown product marked a change in the organization.

The third event that shifted the narrative around the Padres as an organization was at the 2022 trade deadline when the team made a go-for-it style trade for the 23-year-old superstar Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals. The Padres gave up a king’s ransom to acquire Soto in the win-now move, but the deal showed that the Padres were serious about trying to compete for a championship.

Outside of the Padres making it to the National League Championship Series, the Juan Soto era in San Diego did not exactly go to plan long term, and the superstar right fielder was shipped to the New York Yankees after the 2023 season. There was a pretty sizable silver lining to the failed experiment, and that was the haul the Padres got in return for Soto.

The fourth key event that transformed the Padres as an organization happened when the team struck a deal with star shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts was a highly coveted free agent in the 2023 offseason, and the Padres showed their desire to compete for championships by bringing him in on a long-term deal.

Similar to bringing in Machado, the move to land Bogaerts in San Diego further showed the franchise’s desire to compete.

The final event that solidified the Padres as being seen as a franchise that is serious about winning is the extension of rising star outfielder Jackson Merrill. Similar to Tatis Jr., Merrill broke out in his rookie campaign and emerged as a young star, and was selected to the All-Star Game as a rookie.

The Padres seemingly saw the writing on the wall about Merrill and his potential superstardom and wanted to avoid a situation similar to what they had with Adrian Gonzalez, and decided to lock up Merrill on a very lucrative deal to stay a Padre for the long term.

The Padres' reform to be seen as contenders has had significant effects in multiple areas. The team has seen a lot more success in the six seasons since the process began. Since 2019, the team has ended with a winning record in four of six seasons and made the postseason three times. The fans have bought into the team significantly more since 2019, so much so that the Padres' attendance record for a season was broken in 2023, then broken again in 2024.

The reform of the San Diego Padres as a franchise has happened relatively quickly, and it happened out of nowhere fr the most part. It is an understatement to call the transformation a success, as the team appears to have a very bright and competitive future.