Gavin Sheets, Catcher Combo Loom As Padres' Biggest Arbitration Decisions

While the arbitration process could change a bit in the negotiations for a new collective-bargaining agreement, the system will be the same this offseason. For the San Diego Padres, that means eight (and possibly nine) players will go through arbitration. There aren't too many tough decisions to be made, thankfully, though that can't be said for the rest of the Friars' roster.

Here is who is up for arbitration and what they are projected to make, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Decisions on non-tendering players aren't due until late November, with some players cutting deals before then to return.

1B Gavin Sheets, $6.5 million

The 30-year-old is going through arbitration for the final time. His season finished on the downside as he dealt with a painful left foot injury and with Ty France taking over the starting role at first base. Sheets had a .212/.313/.397 slash line with 17 homers and 48 RBIs over 125 games (419 plate appearances). The left-handed slugger was a big part of the Padres' early season success, including the two-homer game April 10 vs. the Colorado Rockies in which he hit a three-run walk-off homer. He also hit five homers each in May and June. But then the power disappeared, as Sheets didn't hit a homer in July and only three the rest of the season. He entered 2026 coming off his most productive season, his first with the Padres, putting up a .252/.317/.429 slash line and career highs of 19 homers and 71 RBIs. He did go deep in the NL Wild Card Series, but started just one of six postseason games.

Prediction: It is expected that France will return to be the primary first baseman in 2027. That deal could actually be done already with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller just waiting for the World Series to conclude to announce it. Sheets can also play left field and is perhaps best-suited as a regular designated hitter. The question for the Padres is do they want to invest $6.5 million into bringing Sheets back? There could be another team out there that would take on Sheets and his relatively big price tag based on his production, which could net a wild-card prospect or another useful player. The Padres can spend this money elsewhere. If not traded, Sheets will be non-tendered.

C Luis Campusano, $1.7 million

C Freddy Fermin, $2.6 million

These two have related cases, so I will combine them. Campusano just turned 28 and is entering his final year of club control. He proved himself worthy of time behind the plate and was good at the plate, slashing .265/.363/.433 with eight homers and 30 RBIs in 125 games (419 plate appearances). He had a tremendous July with a .326/.456/.413 slash line in just 46 plate appearances with a homer and five RBIs. His defensive highlight was in the September series against the New York Yankees where he threw out three runners in a single game.

Fermin is 31 years old and was acquired at the 2025 trade deadline to bolster the Friars' offense at the position. But he has produced a .217/.276/.323 slash line with six homers and 38 RBIs in 138 games (404 plate appearances), including .203/.274/.315 this year with four homers and 24 RBIs. Fermin is known for his defense and he lived up to that standard by becoming a candidate to win his first Gold Glove this year. Campusano started 51 games at catcher and Fermin 74. Both missed a good chunk of time with injuries, Campusano with a fractured left big toe and Fermin with a concussion and then a bruised head.

Prediction: I don't think the Padres would have run it back with this duo next season, but it was certainly possible. Following the promotion of No. 1 prospect Ethan Salas to begin September, though, the handwriting is now on the wall that the 20-year-old will be the primary catcher entering 2027 (justifiably so based on what he flashed in September and then in the postseason). There is no way the Padres carry three catchers next year as they did following Salas' promotion with the extra roster spots available. You can do rock-paper-scissors to figure out who of Campusano and Fermin will stay. The other will have a trade market and that could be what decides who is a Padre in 2027. The preference is probably to for Campusano, the Padres' second-round pick in 2017, to stick around, but his hitting could be a lure for another team that can live with the defense he plays. Fermin is fine when paired with a catcher who can hit, which is what Salas is expected to do. Salas can also pick up defensive pointers from Fermin. It really is a tossup as to who is traded, but my guess is Fermin is shipped out.

RHP Mason Miller, $8.1 million

The 28-year-old was already one of the best closers in MLB, then he put up numbers you might only see in a video game this season. He tied for third in MLB in saves with 38 while finishing an NL-high 57 games. He had a 1.17 FIP (1.67 ERA). He had by far the most strikeouts of any reliever with 129, especially when you consider No. 2 on the list was 17 behind and threw 17 more innings. That made for a fantastic 47.4% strikeout rate, which was somehow below the 54.2% rate he had with the Padres in 2025. Miller is in arbitration for the second time as a Super 2 player (more on that at the end) and has three years remaining of club control.

Prediction: There are already rumors of other teams wanting to pursue Miller via trade. That shouldn't happen, at least not yet. Miller is elite and the value he brings even at $8.1 million is more of a bargain than any other closer who has signed a big free-agent contract.

RHP Bryan Hoeing, $800,000

The 30-year-old right-handed reliever missed the entire season after having surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right elbow in spring training. That followed a right shoulder issue that limited him to 18 games in 2025 after coming over from the Miami Marlins at the 2024 trade deadline. He is likely to be ready for Opening Day. This will be Hoeing's first foray into arbitration. When healthy in 2024-25, he was very good, notching a 3.28 FIP (2.34 ERA) with a 6.5% walk rate and 19.5% strikeout rate.

Prediction: Coming back at what is basically a league-minimum deal is optimal for the Padres, regardless of his major injuries the last two years. Unless there is something in his medical report the Friars don't like, Hoeing is worth keeping, especially with three years of control remaining.

LHP JP Sears, $2.8 million

We will make this simple. The 30-year-old left-handed starter has made just 13 appearances for the Padres since coming over with Miller from the A's at the 2025 trade deadline. While he had a couple good starts this year, it was nothing to sway the front office into keeping him, even at this relatively low price.

Prediction: Freeing up $2.8 million to spend on players who will actually be on the MLB roster is the way to go here. Sorry, JP, but you will have to find a new home. Perhaps Preller can deal him to a team that will actually use Sears with regularity.

RHP Jeremiah Estrada, $1.3 million

The newly turned 28-year-old right-handed reliever, in arbitration for the first time, became an afterthought this season due to three stints on the injured list due to right elbow, right knee and right shoulder ailments that limited him to 33 appearances and 31 innings. He had a 3.04 FIP (3.48 ERA) with a high 12.7% walk rate and a nice 30.2% strikeout rate.

Prediction: There's no reason to think that Estrada won't be back. He was on track in his recovery from his right shoulder injury, to the point that he would have been in consideration to join the roster for the NL Championship Series had the Padres advanced. That means he should be good to go for spring training.

RHP Jhony Brito, $800,000

The 29-year-old right-hander returned from an internal brace procedure and flexor tendon surgery on his right elbow in May for a rehab assignment. He got three call-ups, but all were brief stays, logging nine innings over five relief appearances. In the minors, he had a 2.97 ERA in 19 games, all but one as a starter. He walked 16 and struck out 46 in 69⅔ innings. This is Brito's first year in arbitration.

Prediction: Brito will be a bullpen candidate next year and borderline rotation option, perhaps a right-handed version of Kyle Hart. The price is a smidge above the MLB minimum, so that isn't a concern for a team that needs every ounce of pitching depth it can muster.

RHP Randy Vasquez, TBD

The soon-to-be 28-year-old is a borderline candidate to be a Super 2 player. What is a Super 2? That is any player that ranks in the top 22% of service time between their second and third year. Super 2 players get an extra year of arbitration eligibility in their six years of club control. For most, club control is three years of suppressed salaries near the MLB minimum and then three years of the arbitration process. Super 2s become eligible for arbitration before their third MLB season instead of their fourth. For Vasquez, he sits at two years, 129 days of service time. MLB Trade Rumors projected that the cutoff for Super 2 this year would be two years, 130 days. That projection was also done with numbers through the end of July, so its likely to vary based on how many players came up to make their MLB debut after that. A year ago, the Super 2 cutoff was two years, 140 days and it has been as low as two years, 115 days in a recent season (2019). Vasquez is not on most arbitration projections because of that.

Vasquez was a key part of the Padres' pitching staff this season, primarily as a starter, but also later in the season in relief. He made 23 starts and nine relief appearances, posting a career-high 140⅔ innings. Vasquez had a 4.24 FIP (3.90 ERA) with a good 6.3% walk rate and substandard 14.8% strikeout rate.

Prediction: Vasquez will enter the offseason as a back-end rotation candidate, so there is no worry about being non-tendered or traded away just to save money. His salary won't jump much this year whether or not he reaches arbitration, but it will represent a nice increase for him.

Do you approve of the job Craig Stammen is doing as Padres manager?

Do you approve of the job Craig Stammen is doing as Padres manager?

• Do you approve of the job Craig Stammen is doing as Padres manager? Required
  

  
• Save

See All Padres Polls >