Grading The 2025 San Diego Padres: Starting Pitchers

In terms of the whole pitching staff, the San Diego Padres boasted one of the top groups of arms in all of Major League Baseball in 2025. They ranked 11th in fWAR (16.6), third in ERA (3.64), and fourth in strikeout rate (23.8 percent). The collective also allowed the fifth-lowest rate of hard contact (39.3 Hard-Hit%) among all big league staffs. Collective, however, is the operative word there. Because when we isolate things to San Diego's starting group, it starts to lose some of the shine. 

Taking into account only starting pitchers, the Padres were 22nd in the league in fWAR (8.9), 16th in ERA (4.07), and 13th in strikeout rate (22.4 percent). That ability to avoid hard contact did, at least, largely hold with the starting group, as they ranked seventh in Hard-Hit% allowed (40.5). Despite that, there was one looming issue the Friars couldn't avoid in 2025: volume. The Padres ranked only 21st in total innings and 18th in innings per start (5.09). Injuries abounded and compounded with inefficiency to create something that wasn't necessarily bad, but certainly didn't aid the Padres in their pursuit of a playoff spot. Which is how you end up with the numbers like the ones we see from their starting group. 

That doesn't mean that every starter that Mike Shildt deployed in '25 is part of that rather average equation. Nor does it take into account the work needed on the backend to piece together a rotation down the stretch sans traded arms Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert. Unlike the struggles of the lineup at various points throughout the year, which are a little more streamlined, the rotation's issues were much more nuanced given that injuries, trades, and lingering inefficiency all played a role, with the Padres' big league infrastructure helping them to remain afloat amid such intricate struggles.

With all of that now spoken for, let's take a look at how each of the team's primary pitchers performed this season.

Dylan Cease: C+

The 2025 iteration of Dylan Cease exists as something of a paradox. On one hand, he increased his whiffs (especially inside the strike zone), struck out more hitters overall, and cut his hard-hit rate from his 2024 numbers. On the other, he got fewer called strikes, surrendered more walks, and served up home runs on fly balls on a rate two percent higher than '24. When you combine those two ends of the spectrum, you get a guy who threw his lowest volume of innings (168.0) since 2021 despite making the same number of starts (32) than he's made in each year since, at minimum. 

Efficiency was perhaps Cease's biggest issue. Not only in terms of the troubles it created for the Padres navigating the middle of games in his starts, but in the way it warped the perception of his performance. In the end, he finished with 3.4 fWAR and a 3.56 FIP, neither of which are bad by any stretch. But, his issues with homers and working past the fifth inning could have an impact on the type of contract he's soon to receive on the free agent market.

Nick Pivetta: A-

When the Padres signed Pivetta to a four-year deal just before spring training began, it wasn't a move that warranted much buzz; floor-raising moves in the name of stability rarely are. But, 31 starts and surely a few down-ballot Cy Young votes later, he's set to be a massive piece of the 2026 Padres. 

In terms of pure outcomes, just about everything Pivetta did in '25 was a career best. His 2.87 ERA, 3.49 FIP, and 9.7 percent HR/FB rate were all the top marks of his career—by a wide margin. His strikeouts checked in slightly below his career average, but so did walks. And while he gave up a fair bit of hard contact, his willingness to work within the zone kept hitters off base to the tune of an in-zone swing rate four percent below his career average. Given the quality of contact generated and a .235 BABIP against, it's probably unreasonable to expect such impressive output from Pivetta in 2026. Nevertheless, he was perhaps the only stabilizing presence in a rotation that was dying for one.

Michael King: B-

It was something of an incomplete year for King, who made only 15 starts while dealing with multiple injuries (a nerve issue and knee inflammation, most notably) throughout the course of the year. When he was in the mix, the results were much more uneven than his strong 2024 had many believing would be in the cards. 

King struggled with similar efficiency issues that we saw from the rest of the starting group, as his 73 1/3 innings of work yielded less than five innings per start. His 3.44 ERA and 4.42 FIP were each several notches below his '24 output, even if still solid in a vacuum. Worse yet was that his strikeout rate fell three percent (24.7) while each of his swing and whiff rates fell against a rising contact rate. The outcomes certainly could have been worse, but the end result was just varying shades of fine for King in 2025. Of course, it's difficult to know how much to attribute the average output to either end of his injury woes, too. 

In the end, King was perfectly fine and probably did enough to comfortably decline his end of a mutual option this winter. even coming off the small sample.

Randy Vásquez: C

Considering some of the names that this organization employs, it might be something of a surprise to see Vásquez threw the third-most innings among Padres pitchers in 2025. That, of course, speaks to their lack of starting depth at the top level this season. But, there was also a certain level of stability Vásquez provided, even if it always seemed like he was walking a tightrope. That high-wire act isn't a bug but a feature in Vásquez's game. Early on, the most impressive thing about him was the strikeout-to-walk ratio favoring the latter so heavily but not entirely working against Vásquez.

He walked five hitters on two occasions in his first eight starts and four in another. In total, that first group of starts included 18 strikeouts, 25 walks, and, amazingly, only 16 earned runs (six of which came in one start). There would be plenty of starts with a high volume of walks and some truly dreadful work in run prevention. But, in large part, Vásquez held it together primarily on the strength of his cutter, which became his primary offering in '25. There's still plenty of command work to be done, but upside as a steady, mid-to-backend starter exists if he can start to stabilize it.

Yu Darvish: D+

There was one moment of brilliance from Yu Darvish in 2025. It came in his fifth start of the year, on July 30. Therein, he tossed seven innings and allowed just a pair of hits against seven strikeouts against the New York Mets. Of course, there are two problems there. The first is that Darvish's fifth start of the year was coming on July 30. The second is that after that brilliant outing, Darvish would fail to make it past the fifth inning in seven of his 10 remaining starts. Health and efficiency continued to be hurdles for Darvish in the '25 campaign; he made only 15 starts this year after taking the bump just 16 times in 2024.

While his contact and plate discipline trends were largely fine (including a 95th percentile Hard-Hit% against), the stuff has diminished to the point where he's generating far fewer whiffs. Fewer whiffs ultimately means more contact and more traffic on the bases (the 79.0 percent contact rate and .244 average against were each the highest of Darvish's career). That's a lot of prolonged innings for a guy who likes to work finely on the edges of the zone. Given how it all transpired and resulted in a one-inning start against the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card Round, it does leave us to wonder if we've seen the last of Yu Darvish on the mound in San Diego.

Depth Options: D

We knew from the jump that the Padres were going to have issues getting innings out of their starting group. Without Joe Musgrove, the extended absences of Darvish and King, and lots of turnover, there was simply a lot of innings to cover. Depth existed, but in name only. Covering the volume wasn't a like-for-like situation. Names like Kolek and Bergert provided some cover until they were each traded, though the results were somewhat mixed for each. Offseason signing Kyle Hart got a crack at a gig early but lost it courtesy of a 6.66 ERA and was eventually jettisoned to El Paso for much of the rest of the year. 

The Padres did make an attempt to fill in some of the depth at the trade deadline. Nestor Cortes Jr. was brought in and made a couple of decent starts before the home run issues that plagued him in Milwaukee manifested again—he allowed four big flies in his final start of the season and didn't appear again. JP Sears, acquired alongside Mason Miller, made only five starts to the tune of a 5.47 ERA and even worse FIP (6.18). Matt Waldron appeared only once. So getting an arm in there to start games wasn't so much the issue as it was keeping the arm.

That stands to change in '26. There are a number of departures on the horizon, including Cease, King (mutual option), Cortes, and, maybe, Darvish. Between the need to add depth and the possibility of some transitions transpiring from the bullpen into the rotation, this is going to be a fascinating group on which to keep a steady eye this winter.