Griffin Canning's Command Issues Are Real, Though Padres Shouldn't Lose Faith

After suffering multiple injuries to their pitching staff early in the season, the San Diego Padres hoped Griffin Canning's return from the injured list would help round out the back of their rotation. However, after missing the second half of last season with a ruptured left Achilles, Canning has struggled to find his footing, posting a 9.00 ERA through his first four starts.

Known throughout his career as a pitcher who generates ground balls by attacking the lower part of the strike zone, he has struggled with his command this season. The issue was most noticeable in his third appearance against the Milwaukee Brewers, when he gave up six runs in 1 2/3 innings, which included walking four straight batters in the first inning. This season, he is walking hitters at a career-high 13.3% rate, and spotting pitches in the strike zone only 43.2% of the time, a drop from his previous career low of 43.9% during his rookie season.

Although these numbers do call for some concern, Canning has not been entirely ineffective. Despite a slow start, he is still generating a career-high 10.69 K/9 while allowing a career-low 6.3% barrel rate. That's a promising sign that he can be more efficient with better location.

Plus, the underlying metrics suggest that while Canning has struggled, his face-value stats may be a little inflated. The most notable difference is the gap between his ERA and his expected stats. He has allowed 16 runs through four starts, but carries an expected ERA of 4.06 and 3.94 xFIP, suggesting his performances have been closer to league average than his ERA indicates. His most recent start against the Los Angeles Dodgers definitely supported this narrative. Against the Dodgers, he allowed a two-run home run to Freddie Freeman in the first inning before settling in and giving up just two hits and one run over his last four innings of work.

To improve, he needs to fix his changeup more than anything.

Before his injury, Canning’s approach relied heavily on a four-seam fastball and slider combination, with an effective changeup that could force batters into off-balance swings. Last season, opponents hit just .196 against the pitch, and it produced a +6 run value, leading to Canning choosing to rely on it more. Once his third-most-used pitch, the changeup has become the primary pitch in his arsenal, deploying it 32.9% of the time, but not to the results he was expecting. This season, the changeup has gone from a strength to a weakness, with opponents having a .423 batting average and .500 slugging percentage against the pitch, and its run value has dropped to -3, the lowest in his arsenal. 

Canning is locating his changeup in the strike zone just 38.5% of the time, down from 53.2% last season. But early struggles do not necessarily mean the pitch should be abandoned. Despite the poor results, the changeup is still generating a 33.3% whiff rate and a 33.9% chase rate, both improvements from last season. Normally, Canning has used the changeup low or below the zone to generate whiffs or soft contact. But this season, opposing hitters are making more contact when they do swing. His opponents' O-contact rate against the pitch has risen from 48.1% to 55.3%, indicating that while batters are still chasing, they are also having better results when they do make contact.

Control is normally the thing to return last when a pitcher returns from a long layoff, as Canning is after a season-ending Achilles injury in June of 2025. With more reps, he should be able to attack the zone more frequently. If the rest of his results are to be believed that could unlock something for the Padres.