Has Ryan Bergert Been Lucky? Sure, But He's Also Just What The Padres Needed

With a Michael King-sized hole in their starting rotation, the San Diego Padres have turned to Ryan Bergert in recent weeks to be the band-aid, protecting the rotation long enough for it to recover.

Bergert, a rookie, started the season in Triple-A El Paso before being called up, making three relief appearances, then being sent back down to the minors. In June, he returned to the big leagues, this time as a starter.

So far, he’s held down the fort, posting a 1.88 ERA and pitching at least five innings in each of his first three starts. Needless to say, he’s given the Padres exactly what they need from him: quality outings.

His numbers back up what we’ve seen from him; his 7.13 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, and .075 HR/9 are great coming from the back of the rotation. After his last outing, in which he threw 4 1/3 scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Padres should feel fairly comfortable rolling him out every five days.

But the learning curve may be coming for Bergert. Every young pitcher faces adversity at the big league level; some of Bergert’s numbers show he may have already dodged potential trouble.

One of the main signs is his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which he registers at 3.81. FIP isolates a pitcher’s performance by excluding defense, instead focusing on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. The difference in his FIP and ERA indicates a discrepancy between his performance and his results.

Other numbers also point to this discrepancy. Baseball Savant has Bergert’s xERA at 4.05 and batters’ xSLG and xwOBA above league average against him. Given the small sample size (24 innings), we can track down specific plays that may contextualize his results against expectations.

One of these plays came against the Arizona Diamondbacks, against whom Bergert went five innings and gave up three runs. In the bottom of the fourth inning, Bergert faced Gabriel Moreno with a runner on second base and two outs. Moreno hit a deep fly ball to right field, caught by Fernando Tatis Jr. on the warning track. Inning over.

What the box score doesn’t tell us, however, is that Moreno’s flyout would have been a home run at 22 of the 30 MLB ballparks, including Petco Park. But Chase Field held it in, saving Bergert an extra two runs on his ERA.

Bergert had another ballpark to thank in his start against the San Francisco Giants. Bergert gave up a double to Patrick Bailey off the right field wall. Bailey’s double would have gone out at 25 ballparks, once again, including Petco Park.

Bailey would score a few batters later on a Heliot Ramos two-run home run, so upgrading a double to a home run wouldn’t have hurt Bergert’s ERA. It would have, however, impacted his HR/9 and opponent’s SLG.

Had both of these balls been home runs, Bergert’s HR/9 would double to 1.5.

The home run ball is something Bergert has been prone to at times. In his nine Triple A starts this season, Bergert’s home-run-to-flyball ratio was 20.7%. However, as seen in the two earlier examples, it’s possible that Bergert’s statistics have benefited from pitcher-friendly stadiums.

Despite his sub-2 ERA, his ERA-, which is park-adjusted, is well below average at 48. When he makes his first start at Petco Park, he won’t have those same ballpark luxuries.

To Bergert’s credit, it’s not uncommon for a flyball pitcher (his flyball rate is 48.4% this season) to be susceptible to the long ball. But where it might become a problem is the 9.4% soft contact he gives up. Consistently solid contact in the air is not exactly a recipe for success.

Nevertheless, he’s kept a tame 6.5% HR/FB ratio this season. Continuing to limit the long ball will be one of the bigger challenges for the right-hander this season.

But regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, early confidence still goes a long way for a young pitcher. He’s already passed his WAR projections, according to FanGraphs.

It’ll be interesting to see what the Padres decide to do with him once the top of their rotation gets healthy. As well as he’s pitching, they’ll likely want to keep him on the major league roster and return him to the bullpen. 

The other option, though less likely, is sending Bergert back down to El Paso. Bergert jumped from Double A to the majors fairly quickly, pitching just nine games in Triple A. If the Padres see Bergert as a potential long-term rotation piece, extra starts in in the minor leagues may be better for his long-term development.