How Triston McKenzie Can Become a Factor for the 2026 Padres

It might've got lost in the midst of the re-signing of starter Michael King and the multi-year deal for infielder Sung Mun Song, but the San Diego Padres made an additional under-the-radar pickup last week in former Cleveland Guardians pitchers Triston McKenzie. It's only a minor-league deal that includes a spring training invite, but has the ability to yield big dividends for a Padres team starved for any semblance of starting pitching depth they can find. 

A couple of years ago, such a pickup would've generated a hefty buzz around the baseball world. As recently as 2022, McKenzie looked like one of the game's rising stars on the mound. That year, he posted a 2.96 ERA, a 25.6 percent strikeout rate, and a 5.9 percent walk rate on his way to a 3.4 fWAR campaign. Unfortunately for McKenzie, however, that would prove to be the peak of his powers up to this point. 

In the years since, McKenzie has battled seemingly constant injury issues. The 2023 season saw both shoulder and elbow issues develop, and he elected rehab over Tommy John surgery for the latter. As such, he's thrown less than 100 innings at the major-league level in the last three years combined, with his highest volume of work coming across 16 starts in 2024. His performance has suffered in those rare instances of play, with that 2024 season featuring an ERA over five and a fWAR that fell on the negative end of the threshold (-1.0). 

At his peak, McKenzie featured a fastball that averaged just under 93 MPH, a curveball that garnered whiffs at a 45 percent clip, and a slider that allowed quality contact at an impressive 30.9 percent rate. As a reliever with the Guardians in 2025, McKenzie threw only 5 2/3 innings. But it seems notable that his fastball velocity was closer to 94 and his curveball checked in at a swing-and-miss rate of 66.7 percent. It's a minuscule sample, but it speaks to the idea that McKenzie might have something to offer now a couple years clear of those woeful health developments back in 2023. 

An important factor to consider in this is Ruben Niebla, whose tenure in Cleveland overlapped heavily with McKenzie's time in the organization. He was the team's minor league pitching coordinator through 2019 before being elevated to the big-league staff as assistant pitching coach that year. Having left for the Padres in 2021, his work as pitching coach is evident in maximizing usage and outcomes for pitchers. One imagines that McKenzie joining this particular organization gives him as good a shot as any at reviving his career considering Niebla's presence. 

For McKenzie, that context of coaching personnel compounds with opportunity in order to create a logical fit. Even with Michael King back in the mix, this is still a team that lacks a full rotation at the top level. King joins Nick Pivetta as the only locks for Opening Day, while Joe Musgrove shouldn't be too far behind in his return from Tommy John. Randy Vásquez, JP Sears, and Matt Waldron each remain around as depth options, but there's a clear chance for McKenzie to create an impact here if he's able to regain any semblance of his previous form.

That'll start with his command. The stuff played well enough in his brief time with Cleveland last season, but he was unable to gain any traction with his feel for the strike zone. If Niebla can help him get back to even remotely what he was in 2022, McKenzie is an arm that possesses farm more upside than any of Vásquez, Sears, Waldron, or Kyle Hart. We've seen this organization redeem players on both sides of the ball in recent years, though McKenzie's name and pedigree offer a steeper climb and more bountiful payoff if he can reach relevance once again.

Even if he's unable to get completely back to form, there's at least a level of intrigue in his attempt to do so. For a team that generally lacks such mystique, he'll be a fun story to follow this spring.