Let's Give The San Diego Padres Some First Half Superlatives

Despite coming out of the gate firing, the San Diego Padres spent the second quarter of 2025 stumbling all over the field. Their offense cratered for a time; their pitching faltered in those rare moments when the offense provided support. There were injuries. There were suspensions. There were fringe players designated for assignment. They might have emerged from it in solid standing in the broader National League playoff picture, but it wasn't as easy as April led us to believe it would be. 

Nonetheless, it remains a key benchmark for the 2025 season. The Padres hit their 81st game of the season over the weekend, marking the official midway point (even if we won't recognize the "second half" until after the All-Star break) of the campaign. With that, it seemed appropriate to take stock of some of the standouts on this roster to date (for better and worse). We'll keep it fairly standard in recognizing those names, with our last one projecting into the season's second half.

The theme, though, is stability. San Diego has somewhat lacked it in the first half, given the rollercoaster performance, the injuries, and the lack of depth rearing its ugly head. With that, we're leaning on the concept to identify some of the key components. 

Most Valuable Hitter: Manny Machado
We'll take some time this week to put Manny Machado's excellence into context, but it's hard to overstate the value he's brought to this roster. As the team started their mid-May offensive lull, Machado upped his game, particularly on the power side. Coming out of the gate relatively quiet in that respect (.144 ISO), Machado turned in a .196 ISO in May and a .229 figure thus far in June. Even when you focus more on the comprehensive rather than an individual component like power, it's a rather flattering picture for Machado. By wOBA (.365) and wRC+ (138), he's been the team's most valuable hitter.

Anyway you slice it, he's been the most valuable hitter. Not that this rings as any sort of surprise. But given a relatively quiet start on the power side, in conjunction with the blazing starts from Fernando Tatis Jr & Jackson Merrill, it kind of is. Machado's a future Hall of Fame player for a reason, though, and his stability in the wake of such massive struggles tells you everything you need to know.

Honorable Mention: Gavin Sheets 

Most Valuable Pitcher: Nick Pivetta
It's a bit of a surprise on a roster that features Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Robert Suárez to have Pivetta emerge as the team's most valuable arm. You could even take it a step further and include the standout performances out of the relief corps. But considering how volatile the first half has been for San Diego, you'd like a little bit of calm, a little bit of stability. Pivetta has given the team that. 

Through 16 starts, Pivetta has averaged 5.8 innings. He has a 3.36 ERA and a 3.27 FIP. It's the best work he's done in his career from a run prevention standpoint. There have been some signs of regression the whole way through (11.9 Barrel%, 36th percentile chase rate), but he's worked extremely effectively and provided some respite for a bullpen that has had to work heavily, depending on which starter takes the bump. While it has been imperfect, it has been immensely valuable.

Honorable Mention: Adrian Morejón 

Most Surprising Player: Stephen Kolek
Stability is a recurring theme here, given the Padres' performance since mid-May. Already shorthanded in the rotation to start the year (sans Yu Darvish & Matt Waldron), the team also lost Michael King to a nerve issue that should keep him out until at least the All-Star break. Factor in Dylan Cease's struggles in a given outing & Randy Vásquez's lack of command, and the Padres just needed someone to give them an ounce of it out of the gate. Enter Stephen Kolek. 

Through 10 starts, Kolek has pitched to a 3.95 ERA and 4.07 FIP with low strikeout numbers (17.4 K%) and a walk rate that could be characterized as just okay (8.3 percent). But he's never been a particularly high-punchout guy and has done two things extraordinarily well: he's avoided barrels and gotten the ball on the ground. Kolek is currently working with a Barrel% in the 84th percentile (5.7 percent) and a GB% in the 81st percentile (50.0 percent). There have been some wonky starts mixed in there, but considering the surface work that Kolek did as a reliever last year (5.21 ERA), it's surprising just how steady he's been as a backend option.

Honorable Mention: Gavin Sheets

Most Disappointing Player: Kyle Hart
Xander Bogaerts was the easy play, but he started to show some signs of life in June. And it might seem silly to pick on someone like Hart, but he serves as our most disappointing player for the same reason that Kolek landed opposite him on the spectrum. With so little rotation depth, Hart's return from the KBO was supposed to be that sort of stabilizing presence to fill out the back half of the rotation. Instead, he's made just six starts and given up five runs in half of them. 

The home run ball has been a particular source of woe for Hart. His 16.0 HR/FB ratio was the worst among team starters before his second demotion, with nothing else happening in his skill set to compensate. Things haven't been much better in El Paso, as he's pitched to a 4.67 ERA and 5.61 FIP, so we may not see him again anytime soon.

Honorable Mention: Xander Bogaerts

Most Likely To Succeed (In The Second Half): Jackson Merrill
In between a hamstring injury and a concussion, Merrill has done very little to make us doubt that the superstardom he indicated as a rookie was anything other than real. When healthy, he's been among the Padres' most consistent hitters. To date, Merrill's slash includes a .301 average and a .354 on-base percentage, with a .353 wOBA that trails only Machado as the team's best. 

Where Merrill could stand to improve is on the power side. His .161 ISO does represent a step back from last year's .208 mark, but some mild tweaks to the approach could serve as a springboard there. Regardless, now that Merrill's injury issues appear to be isolated, things behind him, he could be in store for a big second half.

Honorable Mention: Ryan Bergert