Manny Machado Must Counter Cubs' Pitching Strategy With A Renewed Focus On Patience

Manny Machado’s last two postseasons as a whole have been disappointing. In 40 plate appearances, he hit .158/.200/.342 with just a 51 wRC+ and a .542 OPS. Even so, he has had a couple of key moments, such as the two-run double that put the San Diego Padres ahead 3-1 in the second inning of Game 2 of the 2024 Wild Card Series against the Braves, and the two-run home run that increased the lead to 3-0 over the Cubs in the fifth inning of Game 2 of last year’s Wild Card Series.

His best year in the playoffs since arriving in San Diego was in 2022, when he unleashed his power and hit four home runs and scored seven runs in 12 games. Two of those home runs were key to driving the Padres forward. First, the home run against Clayton Kershaw that opened Game 2 of the NLDS, in a series the Padres ended up winning 3-1 over the Dodgers in four games. Then, in the NLCS, he hit a solo home run in the first inning of Game 4 against the Phillies, which sparked a four-run rally after two outs. The four home runs Machado hit in that 2022 playoff run tied the franchise record for a single postseason, and his seven extra-base hits were the most in Padres history for a single year in the playoffs.

However, over 51 postseason games, Machado has fallen short of expectations, producing a .209/.259/.423 offensive line, with a .682 OPS and an 85 wRC+. Regarding his recent inconsistencies, there are several interesting trends that we should explore. Here we have one key point: His combined performance over the final month of the regular season, compared to his results in the postseason.

The first thing that catches my attention is how his aggressiveness at the plate spikes, taking many more swings and chasing more pitches outside the zone. This, without a doubt, is the fundamental part that has led him to strike out much more frequently, but his 12.1 percentage-point improvement in Hard% also stands out. His ground-ball rate also drops, so most of the balls put in play remain fly balls, but his averages show that those hard-hit balls have not made the difference. His slugging has seen a .115-point drop and OPS a .200 drop, which obviously includes his problems with taking walks and getting on base.

Although there is nothing closer to the version of Machado we will see in the playoffs than the trends from his final month, it is worth highlighting that his swing was productive during the regular season against Cubs pitching. In 21 plate appearances, he produced a .300/.333/.600 offensive line with a 156 wRC+. His hard contact rate was 46.7% and that sounds great, but what is most concerning here is that an extreme pull hitter like the third baseman recorded a 26.7 Pull% rate, the lowest among Padres hitters with at least 20 plate appearances against Chicago.

Machado chased 45.7% of the pitches against Cubs pitchers and, at times, what could be worse, made contact on 50.0% of his swings outside the zone. In the end, as we have seen here, that contact produced limited impact for the Friars.

As you can see here, the Cubs have precisely marked where they want to pitch to the All-Star. Most of the pitches were outside the strike zone, well away, inside and outside in the lower part of the zone, and the lowest percentage, just 1.3%, has been on pitches middle-middle.

In other words, his pitch selection will be key this series, as he will need a balance between being aggressive and much more patient, since in October every pitch and every swing decision can open up a range of possibilities. The Cubs will almost certainly draw up a similar strategy again.

Perhaps this statistic explains it all: in 51 postseason games and 218 plate appearances, Manny has recorded just one game with two or more walks, when he received three walks in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Dodgers in 2022. His career BB/K rate has been 0.47, with 1,576 strikeouts and 739 walks, but in the postseason, it drops to 0.23. Plate discipline has been an important part of his offensive problems in the playoffs and has limited his ability to contribute as much as has been expected of him.

Many times under the pressure of October, drawing a walk can become a key plate appearance, rather than failing in the attempt to try to solve everything with one swing. For Machado, deciding when to cross that thin line inside the batter’s box could lead to big results for the Padres this postseason.

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