Michael King Is Moving up (And to the Arm-Side)

Michael King makes his third start of the season tonight against the Sacramento Athletics. King’s Opening Day start against an excellent Braves lineup didn’t go quite to plan, as he lasted just 2 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs on four walks and four hits. However, he bounced back in a big way last Tuesday, striking out 11 of the 19 Guardians he faced and allowing just one walk and one hit over five scoreless innings. The dominant outing was an encouraging sign that King’s 2024 season, his first as a full-time starter, was no mirage. In fact, there are several indications he might even be better this year. In 2024, King went 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA and 3.33 FIP. His 28% strikeout rate dropped by fewer than two points from 2023, when he worked mostly out of the Yankees bullpen. It’s hard to imagine a conversion from reliever to starter going better than that.

Here's why I say King might be even better. As both Thomas Nestico and Lance Brozdowski have noted, King’s pitches have added a bunch of new movement while maintaining their velocity. The four-seam fastball is the big story. I’ll break down all the numbers in the table below, so feel free to skip them if you want, or to just glance at the bottom row.

The big story here is the break. King’s arm angle is a little bit lower. Normally, that would cause a pitcher to lose vertical break and add horizontal break. The reason is simple: pitches move in the direction of their spin, and most pitches have backspin on them. So if your arm angle is more vertical, you’ll get more rise, and if your arm angle is more horizontal, you’ll get more run. King’s delivery is now a bit more horizontal, but he’s added more spin (specifically more active spin), and the ball is getting both more rise and more break.

You might also notice the perceived velocity column on the far right. King’s extension is a little lower, which means he’s releasing the ball a couple inches farther from home plate. That means that although the pitch has the same velocity, the longer distance that it has to travel means its effective velocity is actually a bit slower. Lucky, that doesn’t seem to be hurting it too much. Last year, the stuff metric Stuff+ put a 101 grade on King’s four-seamer, meaning it was basically an average four-seamer. This year, it’s at 123, meaning it’s one of the better four-seamers in the game.

The four-seamer is the headliner, but nearly all of King’s pitches have changed their movement profiles some, as you can see in the image below, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

King’s sinker and four-seamer have added multiple inches of horizontal break, while his sweeper has lost a bit. Things aren’t always as simple as the more movement, the better, but it does happen to be true in this case. The sinker and changeup are grading out better according to the stuff metrics, while the sweeper has, according to some, taken a slight hit.

I’m hopeful that he’ll keep these new pitch shapes over the course of the season, simply because he’s never really showed anything like them before. It’s not like he’s hit these numbers every once in a while. They’re something new. Still, it’s possible that they’ll regress some. It’s very early. King has struggled against an Atlanta lineup that should be one of the league’s best and excelled against a Cleveland lineup that should be somewhere in the middle. And while he’s racked up whiffs and strikeouts, he hasn’t induced a ton of weak contact or groundballs. He could be lights-out tonight. he could struggle. But right now, all the signs are very encouraging.