Padres Free Agency Wish List: Bringing Dustin May Back to NL West Should Be A Priority for Friars

Rebuilding the San Diego Padres’ starting rotation will be one of A.J. Preller’s major tasks this winter. Now that Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, and Casey Mize have headed into free agency, Randy Vasquez is the only piece remaining from the starting rotation the Friars regularly used in 2026. In that context, high-upside arms available on the free-agent market, such as right-hander Dustin May, could become interesting alternatives for Preller and company.

May’s season wasn't great, but he did the most important thing a starter can do: show up. He finished 2026 with 31 starts, 145⅔ innings—a career-high—144 strikeouts, and a 4.70 ERA, starting with the St. Louis Cardinals before moving to the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline. His health was one of the main reasons that brought him to Milwaukee, to reinforce a rotation that needed arms capable of providing deep starts that could help avoid overloading the bullpen. The Padres also went through a similar problem, but Mize and Ray were unable to solve it.

After a first half in which he posted a 4.38 ERA over 109 innings with St. Louis, May allowed a 5.65 ERA over 36⅔ innings with the Brewers, seeing his K/BB rate drop from 3.18 to 2.50. He also wasn't able to solve his limitations against left-handed hitters.

In any case, despite that evident decline after changing teams, his advanced indicators reflected progress compared to 2025. The first point to consider is that May returned to pitching more than 130 innings and, despite the workload, lowered his xERA from 5.20 to 4.45, slightly increased his strikeout rate, and reduced his walk rate from 9.6% to 8.1%. With the Brewers, he had the opportunity to pitch in the postseason again for the first time since 2020, and one of his most important games came precisely in the NLDS against the Padres, allowing two runs over three innings as a starter. He also worked out of the bullpen, demonstrating versatility that could be considered an additional resource for San Diego.

There are also two interesting points that stand out from May’s season: his recovery in velocity and the adjustments he made to seek more command in his repertoire. The four-seam fastball went from averaging 95.4 mph in 2025 to 96.9 mph in 2026, the sinker increased from 94.5 to 96.6 mph, and the cutter from 91.4 to 93.3 mph, an increase that led May to readjust his pitch distribution. After using the sweeper on 39.3% of his pitches and the sinker on 33.5% during 2025, he altered the frequency of his pitches in 2026; the four-seam fastball (24.8%), the cutter (23.7%), the sinker (20.1%), and the sweeper (17.7%) all got their time in the spotlight, instead of being so dependent on two options.

The adjustments gave him some interesting results, as May held opponents to just a .219 average when throwing his four-seam fastball, while the cutter posted a .384 expected slugging percentage, down from the .460 it allowed last year. Both pitches took advantage of a very consistent release point, and the sinker was not far behind. If you remember from last year, that specific pitch caused May major problems, yielding 11 home runs. This year? He allowed only three home runs on it, and posted run value of +2.

We also cannot say that May abandoned his sweeper, as his change in usage focused more on decisive counts, producing solid results with a 27.7% whiff rate that drove a 37.6% strikeout rate in the 125 plate appearances that ended against that pitch. Even so, his Run Value was -5, which tells us that the decisions he won did not come in the same number of high-pressure situations as in 2025.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021 and another elbow procedure in 2023, May missed the entire 2024 season, so his recovery in 2025 seemed like the first test season to find out whether he could overcome the challenge of returning to performing as a full-time starter. He has managed to make that jump with 54 starts and 278 innings pitched over these last two campaigns with four different organizations and, although he's produced a 4.82 ERA and -0.3 bWAR, the most recent version of the right-hander has shown interesting progress that deserves attention.

Perhaps he is not the ideal option to start the rebuild of the Padres' rotation with, but given the need to add several starters capable of handling a big volume of innings, adding May now could prove to be a wise move regardless of what happens throughout the remainder of the offseason.

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