Padres Free-Agent Case: Nick Pivetta Should Return, Though Health Concerns Remain

The 2026 season couldn’t have been any more of a disaster for Nick Pivetta. A right elbow injury disrupted what should have been a big season for the San Diego Padres’ right-handed starter. Instead, he made a total of eight starts and lost control of his immediate future, which likely would have meant a nice payday.

That injury sidelined Pivetta for more than 130 consecutive days, which took a $14 million player option for 2027 and converted it to a club option. There were good moments for Pivetta, but missing out on a big contract this offseason puts a damper on 2026 from his perspective. That clause in his contract that flipped the option was due to a flexor tendon injury with the Boston Red Sox in 2024.

His situation is one of the more nuanced decisions the Padres have to make in the next couple weeks.

Nick Pivetta's 2026 Season At A Glance

The 33-year-old was the Padres’ Opening Day starter, the first time he has had that honor in his 10-year career. He earned that through his performance in 2025, when he went 13-5 with a 3.49 FIP (2.87 ERA) in 31 starts, becoming the No. 1 pitcher on a staff that included Dylan Cease and Michael King.

But his fourth start of 2026 is where things unraveled from a health perspective. He threw three pitches to begin the fourth inning of an April 12 start vs. the Colorado Rockies and was done until September. That he even came back in September had to feel miraculous after what transpired in his first rehab outing. Pitching in relief in the same game in which fellow right-handed starter Joe Musgrove also began a rehab assignment with the Low-A Lake Elsinore Storm, Pivetta walked off the mound after just 13 pitches. He felt something in his elbow.

Fortunately, he threw a 30-pitch bullpen later in the day and, after a brief evaluation period, was essentially back on track. But that setback cost him the option decision for 2027. Pivetta returned, probably a little prematurely, to make four regular-season starts where he progressed to the point of becoming the Padres’ No. 2 starter behind King. He finished the season with a 2.21 FIP (2.86 ERA), a mark that looks even better when you consider he gave up six runs over three innings on Opening Day vs. the Detroit Tigers. His 5.7% walk rate was the best of his career even in a small sample size of 34⅔ innings, while his 30% strikeout rate was the third-best.

He made two starts in the postseason and was solid in both. The biggest thing, though, is that he showed he was healthy heading into the offseason.

Why the Padres Should Re-sign Nick Pivetta

Stop me if you have heard this before: The Padres need to rebuild their starting rotation entering this offseason. Last year, the Friars lost Cease to free agency and right-hander Yu Darvish to internal brace surgery on his right elbow that cost him all of 2026. Musgrove’s status wasn’t truly known at this time last year, only that Opening Day was a possibility.

As mentioned just above, Pivetta proved he was healthy at the end of the season with those six starts. His velocity was where it should have been. Yes, he could have been sharper with his pitches, but that would have come with more time instead of being rushed slightly to help the Padres make their postseason push.

King is a virtual lock to exit stage left this season as he has an opt-out clause. That leaves right-hander Randy Vasquez and Musgrove as starting options entering the offseason. And Musgrove still needs to prove himself, as his arm didn’t recover as expected in his last rehab start, putting him in a relief role for two postseason appearances.

Considering Pivetta’s body of work in 2025 and what he did when healthy in 2026, exercising his $14 million club option shouldn’t be a question for the Padres. That decision will need to be made within five days of the World Series ending.

Why the Padres Should Not Re-sign Nick Pivetta

Of course, only the Padres are in the position to know the true condition of Pivetta’s arm. They have all the medical reports, have talked with him and have already formed their opinion on him medically. That should outweigh anything the late-season results show.

If there are questions about Pivetta being able to make 30 or so starts in 2027, the Padres have to give pause to spending $14 million on the right-hander. With a franchise-record fourth straight postseason trip expected in 2027, bringing Pivetta back can’t be a risky proposition. If president of baseball operations A.J. Preller rolls the dice and the right-hander goes down in the first two months of the season, the Padres could end up with a rotation situation like they dealt with in June and July of this year.

The Bottom Line

There are really three choices the Padres have with Pivetta and his club option. Exercising the option for a healthy Pivetta is the cleanest of those. Declining the option and pouring that $14 million into another starter or two is the smart route if his medicals don't pass the smell test.

The third one is to rip up the current contract and renegotiate Pivetta’s deal. As a reminder, he signed a four-year, $55 million contract before the 2025 season. He took a reduced salary of $2.5 million in 2025, then got a more commensurate salary of $20.5 million this year. Considering the production of those two seasons, the salaries feel like they should have been reversed. After the $14 million option for 2027, there had been an $18 million player option for 2028, but that became void when he missed those 130 consecutive days.

If Pivetta wants to stick around beyond 2027, the Padres could give him a two- or three-year deal laden with incentives based on starts or innings that could get him close to the payday he envisioned having this offseason.

Thus, regardless of how it's accomplished, expect to see Pivetta in a Padres uniform in 2027.

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