Padres' Home Run Struggles Put Spotlight On Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Bat

The battle of home runs has shifted the focus of the San Diego Padres to the power numbers of Fernando Tatis Jr. The team, which ranks 29th in the majors with only 115 home runs (as of August 26, 2025), is efficient in contact but struggles in slugging. Tatis breaking his 128-plate-appearance streak is somewhat optimistic, yet his walk rate and low strikeout rate reveal that he is playing smart.

Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates share the bottom rankings in MLB home run totals
The Padres have been experiencing a severe power drought in 2025, as the team has only 115 home runs, barely ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the league rankings.

This is in addition to the four home runs they scored while beating the Mariners on August 25, which highlights a larger issue with their ability to produce extra-base power.

The league average of the number of home runs hit per team is approximately 153, according to the aggregate of all 30 teams. 

The Padres' inability to consistently produce power was evident on August 25 at T-Mobile Park, where they surged to a 4-1 lead after hitting three homers in the second, but lost it due to pitching problems. This led to a 9-6 loss, which slid them one game behind the Dodgers, illustrating how a power failure can destroy momentum in close pennant races.

The team has hit four or more homers in a game only three times this season, and they have won those games. However, the fact that these have only happened three times before August 25 limits their effectiveness against power-stacked teams like the Dodgers and Phillies.

One of the factors contributing to the difficulties the Padres face concerning home runs is that Petco Park, their home field, is renowned as a pitcher-friendly venue. This park has a history of inhibiting home run counts by about 10 -15 percent compared to the league-average parks. According to FanGraphs, this trend persists in 2025, where the home slugging percentage of the team lags behind its away numbers, highlighting the team's power production as an isolated value of 0.185, with star players such as Manny Machado, and the team's overall power production as below-average.

This has been highlighted by players like Gavin Sheets, who have noted that when attempting to hit home runs at Petco, they often end up with bad at-bats. Their contact rate is very high, among the highest in the league, with few strikeouts and a high weighted on-base average. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. ends 128 plate appearance home run drought in Seattle
It was hoped Fernando Tatis Jr. would crush over 30 homers as he did in 2021, but he sits at only 18 homers in the 130 games he has played. This was the longest home-run-less streak of his career, 128 plate appearances. During this period, he recorded a .406 on-base percentage, yet lacked the trademark power that typically characterized his performance.

It marks a change in style, with Tatis now focusing on plate discipline rather than aggressive swings, boasting a career-high 13.8 percent walk rate (79 walks) and a career-low 18.1 percent strikeout rate (104 strikeouts).

These are fine attributes in a leadoff hitter; however, it has affected his slugging, and he's carrying an ISO of. 170. His 416-foot homer was an indication that he was back, with a hard, compact swing in keeping with his best exit velocities of about 93 mph and a hard-hit percentage of 52.

Further examination of Tatis's metrics reveals that, through a trade-off, his improved swing decisions, referred to as elite by manager Mike Shildt, have raised his wOBA to a level of.383 and wRC+ to 129, but has caused his barrel rate to drop to 10.4.

At a glance, there are bright spots like Ramon Laureano, with a .295 ISO and a 180 wRC+, but it is Tatis who must step up as we head into September.

If the Padres can keep up the momentum, they might close the gap with the Dodgers; otherwise, relying on small-ball could limit their ceiling in this power-driven era.