Padres Rumors: Reese McGuire Could Be Sneaky Target At MLB Trade Deadline

With just a few weeks to go until Major League Baseball's trade deadline on July 31, it's difficult to project exactly where the San Diego Padres will stand when the smoke clears. No stranger to impact moves, A.J. Preller finds himself with a team that has been middling since May and limited resources with which to operate. 

That the Padres don't have a lot of prospect capital with which to work is courtesy of Preller's own hand. And while it's difficult to underestimate an executive with a reputation for the bold, the reality is that this is a team sitting extremely top heavy in the farm system. If top prospects Leo De Vries & Ethan Salas are, indeed, untouchable (to say nothing of any continued budget "woes"), then we can assume the focus is going to live on the margins where the cost is more digestible. 

Of the clarity we do have, we know that the team is in the market for a catcher. At -0.8 fWAR, only the Washington Nationals have gotten less out of the position than Elías Díaz & Martín Maldonado have provided San Diego. And, despite what work Luis Campusano has done as a hitter in Triple-A this year, their reluctance for a shake-up involving the former top prospect is indicative of his lack of inclusion in the position moving forward. Considering the factors involved, there's an increasingly clear name worth targeting for the Padres: the Chicago Cubs' Reese McGuire. 

A former top prospect in Toronto, McGuire has become something of a journeyman in the last few seasons. He was traded to the Chicago White Sox in 2022 and caught on with Boston via another trade later that year. He was designated for assignment around this time last year before reaching free agency and signing a minor league deal with the Cubs over the winter. Given their tandem of Miguel Amaya & Carson Kelly, he was there to serve as depth. But with Amaya on the shelf due to an oblique injury, McGuire has been pressed into big league duty the last handful of weeks. The showing has been rather impressive. 

As of July 7, McGuire is carrying a slash of .237/.262/.508. That latter figure is the important one. The slug has been the most noteworthy component of his offensive game between the .508 slugging percentage and a .296 isolated power figure through more than 60 plate appearances. His five home runs in that sample are nearly as much as he recorded across the past three seasons combined (seven). And, while you'd like the average and on-base numbers to look a bit better, Díaz and Maldonado are combining to hit .190 and reach base at around the same clip. So, you're getting modestly better production from an on-base standpoint but a big boost on the power side. 

Then, there's the defensive component to consider. Statcast has McGuire above average in framing, blocking, and throwing. The Padres' tandem, meanwhile, sits below average in framing (-1 in Framing Runs for Díaz, -2 for Maldonado). They're mixed in the blocking game (Díaz at 1 Blocks Above Average, Maldonado at -8) and in throwing (2 CS Above Average for Díaz, -6 for Maldonado). So, while you're looking at a guy who has succeeded in a small sample, he's also one that can offer a fairly significant upgrade to at least half of the current catching tandem. With the added benefit of the bump you get on the power he's offering as a hitter at present. 

There is, of course, a caveat to this. A trade of McGuire would be heavily dependent on Miguel Amaya's timeline in returning from his injury. He's started a throwing & hitting program but isn't expected to return to game action until after the All-Star break. That'd be a pretty narrow timeframe for the Padres to get something done, but should everything progress as expected, the Cubs aren't really going to have a choice. The likelihood of carrying three catchers on an already-thin bench would be foolhardy. Eventually, McGuire is going to have to go.

Teams don't always love to acquire a catcher in-season, but factoring in his power and defensive performance against what you're getting from (in particular) Maldonado, it would behoove the Padres to give him a long look once the time comes.