Rotation, Bullpen, or El Paso: Analytically Breaking Down Griffin Canning's Arsenal

Had he not ruptured his left Achilles tendon at the end of last June, right-hander Griffin Canning might have been a more sought-after starter this offseason. After all, he was in the midst of a breakout season with the New York Mets when the injury happened.

But it did occur and the San Diego Padres are hoping to capitalize on the opportunity by making Canning an addition to their roster a few days after pitchers and catchers reported to Peoria, Ariz. However, that payoff could be delayed. The San Diego Union-Tribune reported Canning might not be available until May.

The 29-year-old, who went to nearby Santa Margarita Catholic High School as well as UCLA, was 7-3 with a 4.04 FIP (3.77 ERA) at the time of the injury. He immediately jumps into the competition for a rotation spot. That was the second significant injury since making his MLB debut in 2019 with the Los Angeles Angels; Canning missed all of the 2022 season with a stress fracture in his back.

Griffin Canning's Stuff

The Angels' second-round pick in 2017 has some decent movement on most of his pitches. His four-seam fastball is about MLB average for a right-hander, with an extra two inches of tail.

His slider was dramatically better in 2025 than it had been previously. It had 6.1 more inches of drop, but three inches less break. Canning's changeup also gained more depth, dropping 2.6 inches more than average.

While relying on those three pitches, Canning also sprinkles in a curveball and cutter. His knuckle curveball is a pitch that could become more effective. In 2025, it tallied 4.3 inches more break, but 4.5 inches less drop than the MLB average, making it something of a hybrid between a slider and a traditional curve.

Griffin Canning's Arsenal

There are five pitches that Canning uses, with one of his offerings new to his repertoire in 2025. All of his pitches are right around the MLB average from a velocity perspective.

Canning's four-seamer was used at a 35.1% clip, including 37% vs. right-handed hitters, while his slider was next at 31.4% and up to 38% against right-handers. The changeup was used 23.2% of the time, including 28% when facing left-handed batters. His knuckle curve had a 6.5% usage, while his newest pitch is the cutter, used 3.8% of the time, primarily vs. lefty hitters. The average velocities of his pitches: four-seamer 94.1 mph, slider 87.7, changeup 89.5, knuckle curve 81.4 and cutter 89.6.

The cutter replaced a sinker that Canning had been using.

His strikeout rate rebounded from a dismal 17.6% in 2024 to 21.3% with the Mets, but still a tick down from his career mark of 22.1%. However, his walks jumped up to 10.7% in 2025 after being at 8.9% the year before. Canning's career walk rate is 8.7%.

While still giving up a lot of hard hits (in the 11th percentile), he is pretty decent at inducing grounders (87th percentile).

What Should Griffin Canning's Role Be In 2026?

Canning is clearly a favorite for a rotation spot, but his status for Opening Day or even April will depend on how the recovery of his left Achilles is going. There is a possibility that he beings the season on the 15-day injured list, or even the 60-day if his rehab process is taking longer than expected.

With the top three of right-handers Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove set, pending any setbacks to Musgrove's return from Tommy John surgery, a full-strength Canning and another new acquisition, right-hander German Marquez, certainly put right-hander Randy Vasquez's spot in the rotation in jeopardy.