Should The San Diego Padres Buy From These National League Sellers?

With the July 31st trade deadline looming on the horizon, urgency will begin to mount for many Major League Baseball teams. While some clubs are firmly entrenched in playoff contention and will be looking to bolster their rosters, there is a distinct group already facing the reality of a lost season. So, who are the likely sellers from the National League? What valuable assets might they put on the market, and how could the San Diego Padres leverage these opportunities to their advantage? Let's delve into the teams poised to ignite the hot stove and the potential impact on the Padres’ playoff aspirations.

Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are on pace for all sorts of records - and not in a good way. They are currently on pace to win 31 ball games, which is 10 fewer than the Chicago White Sox won in 2024. The Rockies don't have many rentals, with starters German Márquez (6.62 ERA) and Austin Gomber (recently returned from a shoulder injury) being the only expiring deals, but that's not to say they don't have trade chips. Most notably, I anticipate many teams will be calling about starter Kyle Freeland (controlled through 2026) and third baseman Ryan McMahon (controlled through 2027). Freeland’s surface numbers are heavily inflated by pitching in Coors. On the road, the lefty has a 3.64 ERA (3.31 FIP) and a 14.6% strikeout minus walk rate.

Regarding McMahon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today has reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs have already shown interest in the 30-year-old. Like Freeland, McMahon’s surface stats are also impacted by Coors - a .739 OPS overall drops by nearly 200 points on the road. Other less notable names that could be available are infielders Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer, who both have mutual options for 2026. 

Miami Marlins
The Marlins are 15 games under .500 and well outside of the playoff picture. However, they are the youngest team in Major League Baseball, which makes it a challenge to know how much they're willing to sell. Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, and Agustín Ramírez have all been great, but they're also in their pre-arbitration years. Would the rebuilding Marlins really sell what looks to be a solid core of hitters? I doubt it. On the other hand, starting pitchers Cal Quantrill (a free agent at season's end) and Sandy Alcántara (controllable through 2026) could be attractive “buy low” options at the deadline. Quantrill has an ERA minus FIP of 1.27 and Alcántara, a former Cy Young award winner, has underperformed his ERA by 2.43 runs. However, both have well below average strikeout minus walk rates, suggesting their upside might be limited with some tweaking of their pitch profiles. The Marlins have gotten some good production out of their bullpen from guys like Ronny Henriquez, Janson Junk, and Patrick Monteverde. While these guys are controllable, it would make sense for the Marlins to listen to offers on any relievers.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are in a race for second worst team in the NL with the Marlins. There's been (mostly sarcastic) speculation that they may trade starter Paul Skenes, but I don't think they will do that - for now. Instead, they have a few assets who will likely have a market over the next month and a half. There's already been rumors floating around regarding infielder Isiah Kiner-Faleda, who has a solid (but empty) .714 OPS. Other solid players on expiring deals include outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham, as well as starter Andrew Heaney, and reliever Ryan Burocki. Aside from Burocki, whose peripherals suggest some positive regression, all players have been more than serviceable this season. However, the most valuable realistic trade chip is current closer David Bednar, who is controlled through the 2026 season. In 20 appearances, the righty has a 3.42 ERA, 2.14 FIP, and a 29.2% strikeout minus walk rate. He may end up being the most sought after reliever on the market. 

Padres’ Needs
The recent re-linking of the Padres to Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran speaks volumes about their offensive struggles. Unfortunately, their needs extend far beyond that. With an OPS ranking well below average at multiple positions, the Padres require offensive upgrades across the board. A potential fit could be with the Pirates or Rockies, who have versatile infielders potentially available. While adding to their rotation wouldn't hurt, it's a distant second to their pressing offensive issues.

Complicating matters, the Padres' ownership situation could limit their flexibility. Speculation during the offseason suggested a desire to stay under the luxury tax threshold, a constraint that would significantly hamstring their activity at the deadline. Though one they may have to overlook to compete with the top of the National League.

What do you believe the Padres should prioritize at the deadline to address these widespread needs? Join the conversation in the comments!