Tarik Skubal, Hunter Greene, Or Freddy Peralta: Which Ace Should the Padres Trade for This Offseason?

When it comes to the state of the San Diego Padres' rotation, it's perhaps best to think of a classroom filled with insatiably curious students and a gym teacher cosplaying as a physics professor: there's lots of questions, and very few answers.

Looking at the projected 2026 group, Nick Pivetta is locked in as a surefire option for whoever replaces Mike Shildt, though he's probably out of his depth as a staff ace. Then, there's Joe Musgrove, who hasn't pitched since September 2024 after needing Tommy John surgery. Yu Darvish follows him as a 39-year-old coming off the worst season of his career. Randy Vásquez and many-walks, few-strikeouts profile slots in at the No. 4 spot. And then there's a laundry list of possible options for the final rotation job, including JP Sears and his career 4.53 ERA, elite reliever Mason Miller who hasn't started a game since 2023, and... Matt Waldron and Omar Cruz?

The point is that the rotation has talent and recognizable names, but facing the prospect of one or both of Dylan Cease and Michael King departing via free agency this offseason, there's a sizable gap atop the rotation where a certified ace should be.

Such pitchers rarely hit the free-agent waters, and this offseason is no different. Cease, King, Framber Valdez, and Shane Bieber represent the cream of the crop, and each comes loaded with their own questions (not to mention that some will be attached to the qualifying offer). In the second tier of available starters, you'll find notable names like Ranger Suárez, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and (potentially) Jack Flaherty, though none are all that likely to usurp Pivetta as the Opening Day starter.

Thus, as A.J. Preller has been wont to do during his time leading the Friars' front office, let's turn our attention to the trade market, which just so happens to come armed with three of of the best pitchers in the sport. Tarik Skubal—the soon-to-be two-time reigning AL Cy Young Award champion—of the Detroit Tigers is rumored to be available, mostly thanks to a jaw-dropping chasm between the money he seeks and the money the Tigers are offering in negotiations. Hunter Greene joins him in the rumor mill, armed with both a triple-digit fastball and three years of cheap team control, plus a $21 million option in 2029. And finally, there's Freddy Peralta, the best pitcher on the best team in baseball who is going to be traded this offseason because of reasons that will surely force a lockout in 2027 when the CBA expires.

It's only natural to start with Skubal and Peralta first, as both have one year of team control remaining before reaching free agency. That's not generally the route the Padres tend to go when acquiring pitchers, but it will significantly lower the amount of prospect talent both go for, which matters after San Diego blew up its farm system at the trade deadline.

Skubal really needs no introduction. He's led the American League in both ERA and FIP in each of the past two seasons, and he's struck out a combined 469 hitters over 387 1/3 innings in that span. Since the start of 2024, the southpaw's line reads as follows: 12.6 fWAR, 31-10, 2.30 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 0.91 WHIP, 31.2% strikeout rate, 4.5% walk rate, .558 OPS allowed. All five of his primary pitches generated a wOBA below .275 (besides his sinker), and he grades out in the 90th percentile or higher in just about every notable Baseball Savant metric. If the goal is to maximize World Series odds in 2026 and figure out the rest later, Skubal is the right play for the Padres, even if he'll require a metric ton of talent (to acquire) and money (to extend).

Peralta isn't quite the same caliber of pitcher, but his track record is undeniable. He's thrown at least 165.0 innings in each of the past three seasons, and his ERA hasn't climbed above 4.00 since 2019. The 2025 campaign was the best of his career, as the 29-year-old recorded a 2.70 ERA in 176 2/3 innings, good for 3.6 fWAR. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball at "pitching backwards", as all three of his non-fastball offerings (changeup, curveball, slider) yielded a wOBA below .250 from opposing hitters in 2025. His postseason pedigree is also impressive, as Peralta has a 4.32 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 33 1/3 playoff innings. He'll be cheaper in every way than Skubal, and his recent stretch of success could make him the perfect fit on an older Padres rotation.

Lastly, there's Greene, who has some of the best raw stuff in the world but the most limited track record of the three options here. He's only completed 150 innings once (in 2024, when he barely eclipsed that mark), but his performance when healthy has been outrageous. Since the start of 2024, the 26-year-old has been worth 6.6 FWAR while firing off a 2.76 ERA, 3.39 FIP, and 0.98 WHIP. He's struck out 29.2% of hitters in that span, and opposing batters are hitting just .186 off of him. Thanks to a fastball that routinely touches triple digits, Greene also possesses elite chase (32.4%) and whiff rates (31.4%). Even better: The right-hander is under team control through 2028 with a scant $8.83 million AAV and has a club option worth $21 million in 2029. He'd immediately become the Padres' Opening Day starter for the remainder of the decade... but he'd also cost an obscene price. The Reds may demand a return of talent so huge that San Diego may simply find itself unable to pay it.

If you're asking me, my pick, in a vacuum, would be Skubal, simply because he's the best pitcher in the sport. It's hard to justify trading for him if you can't extend him, but the Padres are an old team, and the 2027 lockout is going to freeze everything next year anyway—might as well make the most of next year with the best pitcher on the planet. I think Greene is elite, but the Reds' asking price is going to be so outrageous that he won't end up being dealt. Peralta is probably the most realistic option of the bunch, and he's certainly got the postseason experience to anchor the staff, but I don't know if he'd move the needle enough to close the gap between San Diego and the unbelievable rotation the Dodgers will field next year.

In truth, all of three of these pitchers might exist beyond the Padres' purview this winter, whether for prospect or financial reasons. That's not necessarily a death knell to their 2026 chances—any of the aforementioned free agent starters (including Cease and King) would pair nicely with Pivetta atop the rotation, as would someone like Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates, especially if there's optimism within the organization surrounding Musgrove's recovery.

Still, there's something undeniably enticing about bringing in one of the best pitchers in the sport, and whenever anything enticing happens on the trade market, the Friars are never far behind. When it comes to the A.J. Preller era of the San Diego Padres, the mantra might as well be "never say never."