The Padres Are Overperforming In 2025, And It’s Not A Good Thing

Believe it or not, the Padres have overperformed so far this season. Despite sitting in the final NL Wild Card spot with a 52-44 record at the All-Star break (the following statistics were compiled before play resumed on Friday, although two games will not significantly impact the math), 2025 has felt underwhelming for San Diego. Although not living up to expectations, things could (and probably should) be going a lot worse in America’s Finest City. 

According to FanGraphs, both BaseRuns and Pythagorean expectation estimate that the Padres should be sitting at a 49-47 record, right in the middle of the league standings. Playing at an average level of baseball will not get the Padres anywhere near where they expect to be. 

First of all, why do these metrics matter? Well, they predict what a team’s record should be, based on the amount of runs scored compared to runs against. Stripping the game down to these numbers makes it easy to tell if a team is under- or overachieving based on their run production. 

Most importantly, both the Pythagorean record and BaseRuns are better predictors of future performance than the current team record.

BaseRuns takes into account the number of times a team “should” score, given their hits, walks, at-bats, total bases, and home runs. It does the same thing on the defensive side, to estimate what the team’s record should be. For the Padres, BaseRuns estimates 4.07 runs scored per game, vs. 3.95 runs against. Though their differential is slightly positive, it is well behind what the actual World Series contenders are generating. For example, the Cubs, who have the best BaseRuns record in the National League, boast an impressive differential of 5.27 RS/G and 4.24 RA/G. 

Unfortunately, BaseRuns isn’t the end of the gloomy metrics for San Diego. As mentioned earlier, Pythagorean expectation has the Padres at the same 49-47 record, which simply does not cut it. Pythagorean expectation follows a similar, yet simpler formula than BaseRuns, (runs scored^2) / [(runs scored^2) + (runs allowed^2)]. Essentially, this formula predicts a team’s record purely based on their runs scored and runs against. Pythagorean estimates a +3 run differential and .508 winning percentage for the Padres, which is still far from their contending counterparts. 

To put it simply, the Padres are overperforming this season, and the numbers back it up. Sure, overperforming isn’t “bad” per se, but it is a concerning precedent for how the rest of the season will play out. It is clear that change is needed to get the organization back on track, but what should they do? 

Luckily, the time of year to make moves is approaching. The MLB Trade Deadline falls on July 31, and the Padres must be active in the trade market. Specifically, two glaring holes in their lineup need to be addressed: catcher and left field. 

The obvious move that San Diego is expected to make is acquiring left fielder Jarren Duran from the Boston Red Sox. Rumors have swirled about Duran being shipped down to San Diego, shifting the focus from whether the trade will happen to how or when it will occur. The Padres have attempted to play eight different players in left this season, none of whom have met the team’s needs. Adding the 2024 All-Star to the squad would bring both dynamic fielding and a talented bat to a much-needed hole in San Diego’s lineup. 

The void at catcher is more of a need for the club, but there is not a surefire player to fill the void, like they have in Duran. Luckily, literally any addition behind the plate would be an upgrade for the Padres. A few names to keep an eye on are Atlanta’s Sean Murphy, Korey Lee of the White Sox, and Minnesota’s Ryan Jeffers, written about previously on Padres Mission. Adding a catcher with offensive capabilities would fill a crisis in San Diego’s lineup, while helping produce more much-needed runs. 

Another issue for the Padres is that their big names are not consistent enough. The club has a significant amount of money invested in a core of top players who need to produce at a more consistent rate. This is especially true for Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, who have slowed down significantly after strong starts to the season. 

Both Tatis Jr. and Merrill were arguably playing at MVP levels before their stats plummeted in the summer. Since May 31, they have been batting .269 and .200, respectively, with only five combined home runs. Tatis Jr. has recovered a bit after a horrendous May at the plate, but both players need to play up to their contracts to turn the ship around into October. 

The last change the Padres need is a change in health, specifically in the starting rotation. The BaseRuns statistic of 3.95 RA/G is actually amongst the league’s best in that category, making a change in pitching less urgent for the Friars. However, that does not mean everything is perfect on the mound. 

The club’s starting rotation is still battling through injuries, which needs to be different to ensure any kind of postseason dreams. Yu Darvish has recently returned to the lineup, but Michael King is still sidelined on the 60-day Injured List, with Joe Musgrove already sidelined for the year. San Diego needs to find a way to have its pitchers healthy for the final stretch of the season. 

Whether it's managing the amount of innings the starters throw or relying on more bullpen games down the stretch, something has to be done to prevent the talented pitching group from falling apart. 

The opportunities are there for the Padres to turn the tide on their 2025 bid; it just needs to happen fast with marginal room for error.