The Padres Could Bounce Back on Defense in 2025

On the surface, the San Diego Padres were not a good defensive baseball team last season. They sat in the league's bottom third in Fielding Run Value (FRV), courtesy of a -12 mark under Statcast's comprehensive fielding metric. By that metric alone, they were the worst in the National League West. Only Miami, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Washington sat behind them on the senior circuit. That shouldn't serve as any sort of indicator for 2025, however.

Defense is important. Of the dozen teams that lived to play October baseball in 2024, seven — the Yankees (36), Royals (35), Guardians (31), Brewers (29), Tigers (26), Phillies (10), and Mets (9) — ranked inside of the top 11 in Fielding Run Value. The first five teams on that list occupied spots two through seven on the FRV leaderboard. Atlanta trailed closely behind that group at 13 (3). Only the Astros (-2), Dodgers (-12), and Orioles (-15) found themselves in league with the Padres' 21st-ranked group (-12).

There's a clear threshold that separates the elite defensive teams, the average (or around there) defensive teams, and the bad defensive teams. Last year, a threshold separated the Mets and the 12th-ranked Rays (3 FRV),  and another separated the Astros and the Dodgers, who ranked 19th and 20th in FRV, respectively. 

The FRV leaderboard shows that quality defense gives you a chance of being in the postseason mix. While there are notable exceptions (first-ranked Toronto finished last in the American League East), the high volume of postseason teams near the top of that board tells you what you need to know. On top of that, we saw the disastrous effects that come when those teams falter on that side of the ball in October.

Sure, it's possible to hit your way into the playoffs. But once you're there, you win on the strength of your defense. The regular season is about run production. The postseason is about run prevention. Which presents both good and bad news for the 2025 iteration of the Padres of San Diego. 

Below is how FanGraphs projects the Friars to line up in 2025: 

Let's talk about the positives first.

Jackson Merrill was the team's top defender last year, checking in at a FRV of 10. He was a true darling of Statcast, sitting favorably in just about any metric we can throw at him (Jump, Catch Probability, etc.). Center field is in steady hands with Merrill moving forward.

It's a similar case with Fernando Tatis Jr. While his overall defensive output isn't as loud, he was above average by FRV (2) and has proven almost too athletic for right field, allowing him to compensate for any shortcomings in jump or specific outfield components. 

Left field isn't as settled as the other two spots, at least in terms of personnel. While Jason Heyward projects to get the majority of the time there, Brandon Lockridge and, eventually, Connor Joe should factor into the platoon against left-handed pitching. Heyward and Lockridge represent the higher-upside duo from a defensive standpoint. Heyward's left field experience is limited, but he's been an all-world defender for much of his career. Lockridge provides an effective supplement with range and athleticism of his own. Considering Jurickson Profar turned in a -6 FRV at the spot in 2024, you're looking at a significant upgrade on that third of the grass as it relates to defense. 

Changes should help the Padres behind the plate, as well, even if only modestly. After spending the majority of last year with Kyle Higashioka (good defender) and Luis Campusano (bad defender; literal worst on the team defender) serving as one half of the battery, San Diego will start '25 off with a combination of Elías Díaz and Martín Maldonado managing the pitching staff. 

Díaz sat 17th out of 100 backstops in Baseball Prospectus' Deserved Runs Prevented metric (2.8). Given that Higashioka was directly in front of him, the defensive impact of a catcher change should remain fairly minimal. At this late stage of his career, Maldonado isn't the defender his reputation would have you believe, but he was much better in 2024 than in 2023 (though in a smaller sample), and was certainly better than Campusano, who sat 98th out of that group in DRP. Ultimately, it's largely a wash in the turnover there, but even a slight improvement with the optioning of Campusano still represents improvement nonetheless. 

The largest questions for the Padres' gloves come on the infield. Xander Bogaerts (4) and Jake Cronenworth (3) were the team's second and third-best defenders by FRV in 2024. However, that output came at positions at which they will no longer spend the majority of their time. In roughly 150 innings at short, Bogaerts checked in at a -1 FRV, while Cronenworth was -3 at the keystone across almost 600. 

In Cronenworth's case at least, there's a history of quality defense at his regular position. The 2024 campaign was actually the first in which the veteran posted a below average FRV at the spot. Unless you're a true utility player, there's something to be said for positional stability against your actual defensive output. The hope is that he can reestablish his defensive value with more consistency in starting at second.

Bogaerts' reintegration at shortstop is perhaps the largest defensive question facing this team. There's a reason the organization swapped him with Ha-Seong Kim last season. But it should be noted that such a change likely boiled down to arm strength more than any other deep-rooted issue within Bogaerts' game. His two most recent seasons as a full-time shortstop (2022 and 2023) were his only above-average FRV years at the position. And he has 88th percentile range. Of course, 15th percentile arm strength remains less than ideal. 

The team is undoubtedly going to miss Kim's blend of range and arm strength. But Bogaerts had demonstrated marked growth in the face of a narrative that was at least somewhat misguided. He could be fine there. That doesn't change the fact that it's the unit's most notable question, though. 

Unless, of course, you count Manny Machado. He was precisely average with the glove by FRV (0). That represents a pretty steep decline from a 9 FRV 2023. His range also fell from the 97th percentile in '23 to 38th in 2024. One has to wonder how much of this was due to a late start after offseason surgery and the subsequent workload management. If those numbers stay low, then perhaps we can have that conversation. But until then, we have no reason to think that Manny Machado is anyone other than the defender he's always been.

Given where the Padres finished on the FRV leaderboard in 2024, it's not difficult to find where the improvement will come. Luis Campusano's present subtraction via option brings the figure up some behind the plate. Profar's absence via free agency helps in left (even if it hurts on the other side of things). Moving guys back into more stable positions could be a boon, too. 

There are a lot of things we could identify as...less than stable within this organization. The testy ownership situation, for one. Pitching, for another. But this year's roster construction should help to at least remove defense from that portion of the discussion. It stands to be better. Potentially even much better. With a top-heavy offensive group and a rotation that lacks depth, it's a fascinating test of defense's value. If the Padres lose some steam off top 12-ish performances in those two respects, could a rise in the third phase help to compensate? 

We're about to find out.