The Padres' June Schedule Is Their Time To Make Hay In The NL West

Despite their worst stretch of the season over the past week, the Padres have staved off panic mode and remain just two games out of first place in the National League West. The coming weeks will provide ample opportunity to gain ground in the standings as the Padres face a mix of sub-.500 teams and division rivals.

The Padres recovered from their six-game losing streak with a series win over the Atlanta Braves and entered this week’s Marlins series with a May record of 10-11. They’ll finish the month against the Pirates, whom they swept several weeks ago. Both the Marlins and the Pirates are at the bottom of their respective divisions.

Come June, however, competition is tougher, including 14 games against division rivals. Let’s take a closer look at the Padres’ upcoming competition.

An NLDS Rematch
In what is sure to be a mighty series, the Padres will face off against the first-place Dodgers for the first time since being defeated in the NLDS last season. Unlike the NLDS, they’ll have seven games, starting with a three-game set at home, followed by four games in Los Angeles the following week.

Despite the preseason hype, the Dodgers have not been running away with the division. Instead, they’ve been plagued by injuries in their starting rotation and sit atop the NL West by a thin margin. Besides Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers don’t have a starter with a sub-4 ERA. In Major League Baseball, the Dodgers’ starting pitching ranks 23rd in ERA and last in walks per nine innings (BB/9).

Their offense has been strong enough to compensate for their pitching. They rank first in batting average and second in OBP, OPS, runs, and home runs. Contrary to their pitching staff, their offense is only getting healthier after recently activating Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Edman off the injured list.

After these seven games, the Padres won’t see the Dodgers again until mid-August. If their starting rotation returns to full health by then, they’ll have to face the likes of Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Roki Sasaki. If the Padres can take advantage of this weak rotation, they may have a chance to take first place in the West.

The rest Of The NL West
After the Dodgers, the Padres will have a shot at a couple of other division rivals and open the month of June with a four-game set in San Francisco. They will also spend a weekend in Arizona for their first three games against the Diamondbacks this season. The Padres went 7-6 against both teams last season.

Currently, the Padres are one game behind the Giants, who have slowed down offensively lately. Since May 8, they have a wRC+ of 87, which is seventh-worst in MLB. Their 96 wRC+ this season ranks 18th.

Their pitching has been their strength thanks to an MLB-leading bullpen in ERA and WHIP. However, their starting rotation does have some question marks. Justin Verlander has been placed on the injured list, Logan Webb is coming off his worst start of the season, and Jordan Hicks has been moved to the bullpen. 

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have been led by their offense. Their 127 wRC+ is third-best in the MLB. They are also top-10 in the MLB in batting average, OBP, OPS, and home runs.

Their pitching has been their Achilles' heel, nearly equalizing their offense — their run differential is just +1 after allowing 266 runs this season. They’re particularly susceptible to the long ball with the fourth-highest HR/9. Besides Corbin Burnes and Merrill Kelley, the Diamondbacks have little reliable pitching.

Keep An Eye on The Rotation
One of the things to watch in June is the Padres’ starting rotation. They will not have their most valuable starter after Michael King joined the IL with shoulder inflammation. King’s spot in the rotation is likely to be filled by Matt Waldron, who is nearing a return from the IL. In his recent rehab start with the San Antonio Missions, Waldron struck out four batters over four-and-a-third innings.

Yu Darvish also made a rehab start in Triple A. There is a chance he returns from the injured list in June.

Dylan Cease will be an interesting player to watch in June. Cease has sported an unusually high ERA of 4.58 so far this season. It is worth noting, however, that his expected ERA is 3.56 — over a run lower. This means that Cease has pitched better than his results may seem. Over the next month, we may see this gap narrow and Cease’s numbers return to form.

A key to the Padres' success in June will be their ability to pitch on the road. In away games this season, the Padres are 13-14 and have a 4.64 team ERA, more than two runs higher than at home. With 18 away games in June, the Padres' pitching is going to be put to the test.