What's at Stake for Padres, Dodgers as 2025 MLB Regular Season Comes to an End?

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers appear to be in the ultimate game of hot potato for the National League West crown.

Both teams are struggling badly, with the Dodgers sitting below .500 since the calendar flipped to August (16-18) and the Padres barely above that mark (18-16). The Dodgers just experienced one of the most heartbreaking losses in franchise history when they blew Yoshinobu Yamamoto's no-hit bid against the Baltimore Orioles; the Padres were swept by that same Orioles team just days earlier. They both having losing records on the road, and regardless of who leads the division on any given night, they'll have the worst record of any of the division leaders in baseball.

Suffice it to say: A bloodbath this is not. Still, both squads are destined to make the playoffs, and they'll both be gunning for the division title. With it comes the NL's No. 3 seed, which means hosting the No. 6 seed (currently the New York Mets) in the best-of-three Wild Card series. The team that falls short will likely have to head to Chicago to face the Cubs in a very hostile environment in Wrigley Field. So, there's quite a bit at stake. Who has the edge?

In terms of strength of schedule, the Padres have the advantage, but only barely. Their remaining opponents have a .458 winning percentage, the second-lowest in baseball, ahead of only the Washington Nationals. The Dodgers' opponents sit at a .484 winning percentage, which ranks 23rd. Here are each team's remaining games, sorted by home and away.

Padres Remaining Schedule:
Home: 3 vs Reds, 4 vs Rockies, 3 vs Brewers, 3 vs Diamondbacks
Away: 3 vs Mets, 3 vs White Sox

Dodgers Remaining Schedule:
Home: 3 vs Rockies, 3 vs Phillies, 4 vs Giants
Away: 3 vs Giants, 3 vs Diamondbacks, 3 vs Mariners

Importantly, the Dodgers end their season on a six-game road trip, while the Padres get to enjoy the comforts of Petco Park in the final week of the season. Getting an extra game against the Rockies and a three-game set with the hapless White Sox should be huge for the Padres' chances, though the schedules are mostly even outside of that. Both teams also have two days off between now and the end of the season, for what it's worth.

In terms of recent performance, neither franchise has done much to separate from the other. They are both 3-7 in their last ten contests, and San Diego now has the worst run differential of any team currently in the Senior Circuit playoff field (+54).

If you can believe it, the Padres actually have the advantage in terms of health as well. Xander Bogaerts' (likely) season-ending injury is a blow to the team's lineup and defense, and poses a bigger net-negative than the Dodgers' losses of Tommy Edman and Dalton Rushing. However, save for recent injuries to Michael King, Jason Adam, and Nestor Cortes, San Diego's pitching staff is relatively healthy at this time of year. Los Angeles, meanwhile, is missing the following players from their rotation and bullpen: Tony Gonsolin, Roki Sasaki, Michael Grove, Evan Phillips, Brock Stewart, and Alex Vesia. Only the latter two players are on the 15-day injured list, with the remaining group all out for the season due to various long-term injuries.

Add it all up, and the Padres appear to have the edge, however slight, on the Dodgers with about three weeks to play in the regular season. Of course, the Friars' recent play has been anything but worthy of a division crown, and the Dodgers have oodles of recent history on their side (see: 11 NL West titles in the past 12 seasons). Still, with so much at stake, the Padres can't yield to the mighty Dodgers down the stretch.

What do you think about the state of the NL West race? Do you think the Padres will come out on top? Let us know in the comments!