Which Padres Pitchers Have Earned A Postseason Rotation Spot?

The Padres officially have a problem on their hands. 

They don't have three clear pitchers to start in the quickly approaching Wild Card series they will most likely be playing in, against the Cubs. 

Obviously, Nick Pivetta should start game one. He has been the team's ace all season. But who should start game two? There's no right answer, it seems. 

Let's break down the options. First, there's Dylan Cease, who is the most likely candidate. 

Cease has experience in big games. He's made three playoff starts, one with the White Sox and two with the Cubs. However, he's struggled in the playoffs, with a 12.91 ERA and a 0-1 record in 7 2/3 innings pitched over four appearances. 

Cease also has experience as an elite pitcher. He's finished in the top four in Cy Young Award voting twice. However, this year, he's not been at the top of his game. Cease has been inconsistent all season, with a 3.56 FIP and 94 ERA+. Cease had been solid since his blowup outing on April 8th, when he allowed nine runs against the Athletics. Since then, he has had a 3.64 FIP and 4.24 ERA. Not bad, but not ace-level, and certainly not trustworthy enough to throw Cease in a must-win playoff game, right? 

Then there's Michael King. King was supposed to be the team's ace this season, and he started the season off looking like it. In his first ten starts of the season, King didn't allow more than three earned runs in any start. He had a 3.27 FIP and 2.59 ERA on May 18th, when he landed on the injured list. 

In his three starts since then, King has not looked like himself. He returned on August 9th for one start, allowed two runs in two innings, and promptly landed back on the injured list. He came off the IL in early September, but in his last two starts, he's allowed 10 runs in eight innings. 

Like Cease, it's hard to see how San Diego can trust King to win a must-win game for them in the postseason. King has not looked like himself since his injury, and while his talent is undeniable, there is a risk associated with relying on King in the playoffs.

What about Yu Darvish? Darvish also spent significant time on the injured list this year. In his 13 starts since then, the veteran has been shaky. He has a solid WHIP, at 1.139, but his FIP sits at 4.83 and his ERA+ at 77. However, Darvish has the most playoff experience of anyone in San Diego's rotation. He's made 13 postseason starts for four teams, with mixed results. He's 5-7 with 1.019 WHIP and a 5.62 FIP in the playoffs. 

With Cease inconsistent and King and Darvish not looking like themselves after injuries, a spot might be open for Randy Vasquez. 

Vasquez, in his second season in San Diego, has shown improvement since 2024. In 24 starts, he's thrown 123.1 innings, and while his 5-6 record does not look great, his 116 ERA+ does. Vasquez has been mostly solid for the Padres, aside from two bad outings on April 21st and August 2nd. Has the 26-year-old earned the spot to pitch in the postseason? 

This leaves the Padres with four pitchers battling for two spots in their Wild Card rotation. If they advance, they’ll likely need a fourth starter in the divisional round. 

Ultimately, it feels like the team should reward Vasquez for his consistency by naming him the starter for game two. Vasquez has been more reliable this season than Cease, Darvish, and King. While it would have sounded crazy at the beginning of the season to suggest it, Vasquez gives the Padres the best chance at winning. 

The case of who should start a potential game three is more complicated. Cease, King, and Darvish all have valid reasons to take on the challenge. 

Cease has been healthy all season, and while he’s been inconsistent, he still possesses tremendous talent. He’s also still a strikeout wizard, which could help him earn key outs against the Cubs. 

Darvish has struggled this season, but he has playoff experience, and that matters. The veteran was lights out in his two starts for the Padres last postseason, and he’s had success on the biggest stages before. 

King probably has more talent than Cease and Darvish, but the injury concern is real. Unless King can finish the season with two strong starts and build momentum going into the postseason, he might be the best fit for the bullpen as a high-leverage relief arm in the playoffs. 

If it comes down to a game three, Mike Shildt will have a difficult decision to make.