Who Knew Xander Bogaerts, Cleared to Resume Baseball Activities, Was This Important?

As a collective, we've spent a lot of time talking about Xander Bogaerts in 2025. His early season struggles and term remaining on his contract compounded for a sizeable volume of negativity surrounding the San Diego Padres shortstop back in March & April and into May & June. It wasn't necessarily a rush to judgment given the prolonged struggles on the heels of a woeful 2024 season. Nevertheless, a team starved for consistent offense could nary afford to be without a starter at a position lacking depth.

Bogaerts hasn't appeared in a game for the Padres since August 27th. He fouled a ball off his foot and was placed on the Injured List on August 29th with a fractured foot. While his outlook for postseason availability remained relatively optimistic, getting through the final month without their starter at the six wasn't going to be an easy task considering the available replacements. 

As of this writing, the Padres have played an even dozen games sans Bogaerts. The team has averaged 4.4 runs per game over that stretch. That number, however, is somewhat skewed by double-digit outbursts against Minnesota and Colorado over the 12 games. In between those games, the team has averaged just 3.0 runs per game in his absence. That might seem like cherry-picking, but it does speak to the steadying presence that the team is missing without Bogaerts in the mix. 

The following is Bogaerts' expected wOBA over the course of 2025: 

There's a downward progression in August that appears to be wrought by some bad luck (a 60ish-point drop in BABIP from July) and comes despite making quality contact at a higher rate than he has at any point this season. Disregarding that blip until it becomes a trend, Bogaerts has been well above the league average in wOBA since the start of June. Which is important not only for a Padres team that has largely failed to be consistent on offense this year but in navigating why his now imminent return is so crucial for the team's fortunes down the final stretch.

On Wednesday, Bogaerts was cleared to resume baseball activities. We don't know what the timeline actually looks like for a return to play, but we do know that even this bit of optimism comes at an important time. 

For one, Jose Iglesias is labeled as day-to-day after a hit-by-pitch that forced him to leave Tuesday's game. Even when healthy, though, the results haven't been there. He has just three hits in 29 plate appearances in Bogaerts' stead, posting a wOBA of only .266 in nine games. Not that a different outcome was expected; that's all fairly in-line with a player hitting .223 and wOBAing .258 on the season. 

And Mason McCoy hasn't offered much in his minuscule opportunity. Despite some thought from this space that he could offer a touch more upside than the veteran Iglesias, McCoy has just nine plate appearances since August 27th. He's managed just a single hit while being deployed primarily as a late-game defensive replacement in order to allow Iglesias to continue to move around the infield a bit. 

None of that is surprising, of course. The Padres were never in possession of much upside beyond Bogaerts at the shortstop position. Unfortunately, that's come to fruition in exactly the expected fashion. Which is why news of Bogaerts' clearance to resume baseball activities is so crucial. 

Again, we don't know what the timeline may look like. The team will likely take his rehab process somewhat slow in order to avoid any setbacks that would impact October. It's possible that they may wait for the final couple of games of the season entirely as a projected timeline. Such an estimate would allow him to at least get his feet wet again before we head into postseason baseball.

Nevertheless, this development, on its own, is still a welcome one for a player with far more importance than we could have expected just a few months ago.