Why Didn't the Padres Pay the Marlins' Price for Edward Cabrera?

The San Diego Padres did well to bring Michael King back to the fold on a three-year deal with escalating salaries every time he opts in, but their rotation picture is far from settled. Incumbent ace Nick Pivetta will surely enjoy having a right-hand(ed) man with which to work in 2026, but unless 33-year-old Joe Musgrove can return from his 18-month layoff with practically no rust or dampened impact, the rotation lacks any semblance of upside outside of its top two.

That's what makes the Edward Cabrera trade all the more frustrating from the Padres' perspective. The Chicago Cubs surrendered top-50 prospect Owen Caissie, once-revered international bonus baby Cristian Hernandez, and 18-year-old dart throw Edgardo De Leon in order to pick up the Miami Marlins' 27-year-old starter, an electric arm with immense potential. That package is nothing to scoff at — and Cabrera comes with some noticeable red flags — but that's an offer that anyone, including the Friars, could have beaten.

The notable thing in that package is that the Marlins clearly valued offensive prospects at all levels of the food chain. That means that the Padres could have held onto top pitching prospects Miguel Mendez and Kash Mayfield while still bringing in a young, controllable starter for the major-league rotation.

Caissie is the big name the Cubs sent, and as a major-league ready hitter with middle-of-the-order upside, he represents the one piece the Padres don't have a suitable replacement for. Perhaps that alone took them out of the running for Cabrera, but there's still enough talent in the system to make up for that gap.

Some of the shine has come off Ethan Salas (Padres Mission's No. 2 prospect) after he managed to play just 10 games in an injury-marred campaign, but he's a 19-year-old catcher who has already reached Double-A. His offensive upside remains a bit of a question mark, but his defensive upside behind the plate is astronomical, and bats always tend to come around for backstops later on in the development process. As a centerpiece for Cabrera, he may not scratch the Marlins' big-league-ready-bat itch, but there'd still be a few ways to get across the finish line.

Perhaps Jake Cronenworth, coming off a season in which he posted a 117 wRC+, would appeal to Miami as a versatile infielder, though the Friars likely would have had to eat a significant portion of the 32-year-old's remaining contract. Tirso Ornelas is a bit of a post-hype sleeper (perhaps making him a perfect analogue for Hernandez in the actual deal that went through), but he's a power-hitting outfielder with years of control remaining. Luis Campusano fits the same definition as a catcher with a likely future home at first base or as a designated hitter. Plus, the Padres have a ton of young players at the lowest levels of the minor leagues (Kale Fountain, Jorge Quintana, etc.) who could have been perfect stand-ins for De Leon.

Would you fork over some combination of those players for a 27-year-old with three years of team control remaining via arbitration who generates a ton of ground balls and strikes out more than a quarter of the hitters he faces? Given the Padres' budget constraints and lack of youthful pitchers, I'm not really sure how you'd answer no to that question. Cabrera does come with serious caveats — he's dealt with numerous injuries and has only completed 100 innings once in his career. But his upside only appears on the trade market once in a blue moon; if the Padres were ever going to pick up an affordable starter with frontline stuff, this was probably their best chance.

It's understandable that A.J. Preller didn't want to give up the final quality pieces in a farm system that's been ransacked for win-now moves over the last few years. For all we know, Cabrera's injury history was too much of a red flag for San Diego to look past, and they never seriously entertained the thought of making a legitimate offer. But, when a team promises to leave no stone unturned in an offseason defined by monetary and prospect constraints, it's frustrating to see someone else take a measured swing with home run upside.