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    Xander Bogaerts: Infield Hit King


    Davy Andrews

    It's extremely rare to find a player who's as prolific as Bogaerts at both hitting the ball over the fence and hitting it straight down into the dirt.

    Image courtesy of © Ray Acevedo-Imagn Images

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    Maybe you already knew this about Xander Bogaerts, but I didn’t. When I think of Xander Bogaerts, I think of a power hitter with 186 career home runs. The guy with one 30-homer season, three 20-homer seasons, and double-digit homers in every season stretching back to 2014. Bogaerts is more than that, obviously. He’s slowing down now, but he’s always been an excellent baserunner and he turned himself into an great defensive shortstop over the years. He’s always hit for average too, boasting a career batting average of .289, five different .300 seasons and four more above .280. What I didn’t think about was infield hits. It turns out that was an oversight. 

    Entering Monday's games, Bogaerts had five infield hits, tied for third-most in baseball. And that's nothing new. Since his debut in 2013, Xander Bogaerts has 227 infield hits. That’s third most in baseball, trailing only Jose Altuve with 251 and Jean Segura with 227. If we start our counter in 2015, when Bogaerts figured things out at the major league level, his 210 infield hits are the most in baseball. He’s finished in the top 10 in infield hits five times in the past 10 seasons, and led all of baseball with 30 in 2023.

    Year IFH Rank
    2014 16 T-41
    2015 30 T-5
    2016 23 T-7
    2017 26 T-3
    2018 16 T-30
    2019 21 9
    2020 8 T-30
    2021 15 T-36
    2022 20 T-11
    2023 30 1
    2024 16 T-34
    2025 5 T-3

    In a way, this shouldn’t be surprising. Even though it took him a while to figure things out on defense, and despite his imposing 6-foot-2 frame, Bogaerts has always had speed. While he was never in the elite range, his sprint speed stayed above 28 feet per second until his age-27 season, and even as a 32-year-old, he’s currently at 27.8, well above average, even for a shortstop.

    Bogaerts also hits the ball on the ground kind of a lot. Since the beginning of the Statcast era in 2015, Baseball Savant credits him with 2,022 groundballs. That’s third-most in the game, trailing DL LeMaheiu with 2,193 and Altuve with 2,074. Those are the only three players above 2,000. FanGraphs credits Bogaerts with a 45.6% career groundball rate, and while that’s definitely on the higher side, it’s not enormous. He’s really hit so many groundballs because he’s excellent at putting the ball in play. Bogaerts has 20% strikeout rate this season, putting him in the 61st percentile, the lowest percentile ranking of his entire career. Hitting a groundball may not be the most valuable thing a batter can do, but it’s still preferable to striking out. Here are the five infield hits Bogaerts has registered so far this season. As you can see, there of them turned into hits because his launch angle was so extreme that he chopped the ball straight into the ground, giving him enough time to beat out the throw. So it’s not just his high groundball rate, it’s the volume and the fact that the high groundball rate comes because of an extremely low launch angle.

    Bogaerts also has an extremely high success rate on groundballs. He has a .295 career batting average on them. Among the 724 players who have hit at least 250 groundballs since 2013, that ranks 42. That puts him in the 94th percentile, and he mostly trails absolute speedsters like Billy Hamilton, Michael A. Taylor, Byron Buxton, Trea Turner, and Bobby Witt Jr.

    So why did I find this so surprising? It’s because of the power. The graph below starts in 2015, and it shows every batter’s home runs and infield hits. Bogaerts is the red dot at the very top.

    image.png

    Not only does he have the most infield hits, but he’s also farther away from the trendline than anyone else. In today’s game, there’s just no one who hits both home runs and infield hits the way that Bogaerts does.

     

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    2019 was a juiced-ball illusion, and much of his over-the-fence powers in other seasons was largely Fenway-fueled. Aside from 2019, a season in which his 33 homers easily outdistances his second-best total of 23 (achieved twice), he's never hit more than ten road homers in a season. You might think of him as a power hitter, but he has never been one. You guys are doing real good work at Padre Mission. I am enjoying it a great deal and link to most of the pieces at my Positive Padre Facebook group. Keep it up!!! Oh, and f*** the dodgers.

    1 hour ago, The Positive Padre said:

    2019 was a juiced-ball illusion, and much of his over-the-fence powers in other seasons was largely Fenway-fueled. Aside from 2019, a season in which his 33 homers easily outdistances his second-best total of 23 (achieved twice), he's never hit more than ten road homers in a season. You might think of him as a power hitter, but he has never been one. You guys are doing real good work at Padre Mission. I am enjoying it a great deal and link to most of the pieces at my Positive Padre Facebook group. Keep it up!!! Oh, and f*** the dodgers.

    That's an interesting point so I went and looked. Sure enough, Bogaerts has a significant Fenway bump but it's nothing compared to some of the biggest stadium splits I've seen.

    Xander career: .802 OPS

    Xander Fenway: .870 OPS

    So his numbers were definitely helped by Boston but it's not an enormous swing, just a big one.

    Thanks for commenting!

    22 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    That's an interesting point so I went and looked. Sure enough, Bogaerts has a significant Fenway bump but it's nothing compared to some of the biggest stadium splits I've seen.

    Xander career: .802 OPS

    Xander Fenway: .870 OPS

    So his numbers were definitely helped by Boston but it's not an enormous swing, just a big one.

    Thanks for commenting!

    Sure, he was about 70 points better at Fenway than overall, but that "overall" INCLUDES his Fenway numbers. The difference between his Fenway performance and everywhere else is well north of 100 points. His career road numbers through 2022 made it clear that he was an ordinary hitter, and I shouted it from the rooftops when we signed him. He was miscast as a star and certainly as a "power hitter." I will be surprised if he ever hits 20 homers in a season again and stunned if he ever hits 25. All that's left is for us to hope that he can be an above-average regular for at least a few more years. I'll continue to root for him, as I know you will.

    28 minutes ago, The Positive Padre said:

    Sure, he was about 70 points better at Fenway than overall, but that "overall" INCLUDES his Fenway numbers. The difference between his Fenway performance and everywhere else is well north of 100 points. His career road numbers through 2022 made it clear that he was an ordinary hitter, and I shouted it from the rooftops when we signed him. He was miscast as a star and certainly as a "power hitter." I will be surprised if he ever hits 20 homers in a season again and stunned if he ever hits 25. All that's left is for us to hope that he can be an above-average regular for at least a few more years. I'll continue to root for him, as I know you will.

    I'm not defending the Bogaerts contract, I was quite against it at the time. As you said, I think he's just not an elite bat but he got elite bat money, and that's ignoring the years (yikes).

    My earlier point was just pointing out that some home splits, particularly from the age of turf, are REALLY ugly.

    I think Kirby Puckett had something like a +.150 OPS bump from the Metrodome vs his road stats.



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