Xander Bogaerts Is Compensating For His Lack Of Power On The Bases

There really isn't any way around the fact that Xander Bogaerts has not been the player the San Diego Padres thought they were signing prior to the 2023 season. It's purely objective at this point. Our own Aidan Kurt recently examined how it was an ill-conceived signing from the start, largely due to the fact that Petco Park does not play the same way for right-handed hitters as his former stomping grounds in Boston. 

However, that doesn't mean Bogaerts has been a complete loss during his time as a member of the Padres, especially in 2025. 

In each of his two full seasons and the roughly two-and-a-half months of 2025, Bogaerts has seen the power element of his game dissolve almost entirely. His isolated power figure as of this writing checks in at a mere .091. Among qualifying hitters, that ranks 153rd of 166. For context, even Luis Arráez is all the way up at 121st. 

With that, though, he's managed to find a different component with which to contribute to the team's offensive output: baserunning. His steady approach has been worthwhile (including a 77th percentile walk rate, which will be revisited shortly), but he's started to make his mark on the bases. Bogaerts already has 11 steals on the season, which puts him 17th within that same group. It's also an early total that has him on pace to obliterate his previous career high, which was already set during his time with the Padres. 

His career high in swipes with the Red Sox was 15, set back in 2017. In his first year in San Diego, he stole 19 before injuries held his game (and steal) total to 13. This year's 11 through 61 games, however, put him on pace for 29. It's not simply a matter of the raw number of steals working in his favor, though. 

The following is how Statcast depicts the underlying value of Bogaerts' baserunning acumen: 

Among the components that primarily stand out here are the bases gained vs average (four) and the steal attempt rate (2.7 percent). Both of those are currently among the higher outputs that Bogaerts has posted since they were first tracked in 2016, with a chance for Bogaerts to similarly sprint past each figure in the way that he could on the raw SB total. Not bad for a guy with just the 69th percentile sprint speed.

Circling back to the on-base element, Bogaerts' walk rate is at 11.2 percent thus far. If that continues, it would be the highest BB% of his entire career. And while a .324 OBP isn't remotely among the higher-end rates that he's turned in throughout his career, he's refined his approach to help provide value against the waning power output. It's one thing to be able to steal bases. But you've got to be able to reach base to make that mean anything. Bogaerts is managing to do both in the face of alarming decline elsewhere. 

It's an important thing to be cognizant of within the Xander Bogaerts narrative. Sure, he's not the player he was in Boston. He was never really going to be, and the 11-year deal was a foolhardy endeavor from the jump. But there's something to be said about a player who can refine or develop a new avenue toward offensive value when a different facet starts to decline. Bogaerts, finding his way on base with a keen eye and creating that additional value with his baserunning, is illustrating exactly that.