TomCent

As sample sizes go, 7 2/3 innings for a pitcher is nothing. We know that no useful projections can be made from that. But sometimes, a team can still see the future during those limited moments -- if it swaps out the data microscope for the long-lamented eye test. Take the Padres and Bradgley Rodriguez, for example. Based on what the team saw from the rookie right-hander last September, it ought to feel confident that he can contribute to the big-league bullpen full time as soon as next March. In turn, it can avoid spending big on a middle reliever this winter and focus on the club's biggest needs: rotation, catcher, and the right side of the infield. Bradgley Rodriguez's career history It doesn't take a spreadsheet to determine that Rodriguez has potential. His triple-digit fastball is all anyone needs to see. But if they need more proof, they can also gaze at his power changeup. Those two pitches earned him an early-season promotion from Double-A to the Show as a 21-year-old. The Venezuela native made his MLB debut on May 31 against the Pirates and pitched well (1 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, stranded both of his inherited runners). Three days later, the Padres optioned him to Triple-A El Paso to make room for right-hander Ryan Bergert. Prior to his call-up, Rodriguez was No. 9 in Padres Mission's ranking of the team's top prospects. The final sentence of the scouting report read: "His control is still a work in progress, but his high strikeout rate indicates significant upside as a power pitcher." When Rodriguez returned to San Diego in September, that upside shot way up. True, there were bumps, like the one he put on Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez's elbow with a 100 mph heater in New York. Rodriguez hit three batters total last season, with each pitch coming from his arm side, That's a sure sign of command issues. But there also was that wild game against the Brewers at Petco Park on the night of Sept. 22. Rodriguez entered in the 11th inning after the teams had traded runs in the 10th. He got three ground balls and, thanks to second baseman Jake Cronenworth, three outs in a scoreless frame. Minutes later, the Padres were walking off the Crew to clinch a playoff berth. Rodriguez was credited with his first MLB win. The outing was a showcase of the youngster's grit—he did not have an easy road to the majors. He had to fight to save his career as he missed the 2022 and 2023 seasons with elbow problems. Less than two years after returning to action, he was succeeding in a high-leverage role in a playoff race. Days later, Rodriguez was auditioning for the Padres' Wild Card Series roster. On the final weekend of the regular season, he made two relief appearances against the Diamondbacks. Each time, he was the first man out of the 'pen in the middle innings. He responded with five strikeouts and one walk over 2 1/3 scoreless frames. The Padres, of course, put him on the WCS roster, but he didn't appear in the three games against the Cubs. Despite that, Rodriguez carries all of that momentum into 2026. He's not your typical 22-year-old pitcher, at least in terms of résumé. Bradgley Rodriguez's statistics, outlook Rodriguez's final 2025 numbers for the Padres, small though they are, should leave everyone believing that he can be a difference-maker next year: Category Rodriguez Opponents' OPS .523 Strikeout percentage 29.0 Walk percentage 9.7* Average fastball velocity 98.3 Strike percentage 59.4 Ground ball rate 56.3 Inherited runners stranded 3 of 4 * Includes one intentional walk. Sources: MLB.com, Baseball Reference, Fangraphs The Padres' top four right-handed relievers heading into the Winter Meetings are Mason Miller, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and David Morgan. Adam, though, may begin next season on the injured list as he continues to rehab the quad tear he suffered Sept. 1. MLB.com reported last month that he is expected to resume throwing "in the coming weeks." After Rodriguez, the other righty options on the 40-man roster are: Jhony Brito: Missed all of last season recovering from an elbow brace procedure. Garrett Hawkins: Added to the 40-man last month to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Bryan Hoeing: Optioned to Triple-A last July after making seven appearances for San Diego. Is more of a swingman/bulk reliever. Alex Jacob: Posted a 5.13 ERA in 33 1/3 innings but finished the season strong. Ron Marinaccio: Finished last season in the minors. Miguel Mendez: See Hawkins. The left side features Adrian Morejon (assuming he's not converted back into a starter), Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Kyle Hart (our Randy Holt recently did a deep dive into Hart's potential as a reliever). Figure three of those pitchers make the Opening Day bullpen—that would leave one open spot in an eight-man unit, although it's more likely to be two spots with Adam questionable. Rodriguez has a clear path to securing one of them. The Padres will add depth arms in the offseason, but with Rodriguez around, they shouldn't feel obligated to spend a few million or trade a prospect for a middle reliever. After all, they've already seen that he has the tools to do the job. View full article

The question might sound ridiculous, but it is justifiable given the subject's history: After three challenging minor league seasons, is Ethan Salas already a post-hype player? Before answering, we need to define "post-hype." The term refers to a highly regarded prospect who fails to excel in his initial long-term exposure to the major leagues. He's not a bust at that point, but he has passed a mile marker on the road to bust status. Salas is not a bust, mostly because he's not yet close to reaching the majors. But there are signs that he won't be a superstar right away when he is called up, either. How can a player with Salas' tools already be losing luster? Just go back to all the shine he received after signing with San Diego. Ethan Salas History In January 2023, the Friars shoved all-in to land Salas, who was the top-ranked prospect in his international free-agent class. They agreed to a reported $5.6 million bonus with the then-16-year-old catcher from Venezuela. The team's bonus pool in that signing period was $5.825 million. Salas was considered more than a worthy investment. He was a highly advanced player who came from a baseball family. In fact, he played professionally even before signing, appearing in a game for Zulia in the Venezuelan winter league in November 2022. He held his own, too, with two walks and no strikeouts in four plate appearances. Padres scouting director Chris Kemp told MLB.com's Sam Dykstra after the signing that Salas was "kind of the total-package catcher." Not long after that, an anonymous scout told the New York Post's Jon Heyman that Salas would be "a 10-year All-Star" in MLB. And, true to their organizational philosophy, the Padres didn't hesitate to put Salas on the fast track. It started in spring training when they had him catch a Yu Darvish bullpen session. That summer, they moved him all the way up to Double-A San Antonio. He spent two weeks there as a 17-year-old in August 2023. At that point, Salas was the newest member of a strong group of players to zoom through the Pads' system: PLAYER YEAR CLUB (LEVEL) AGE* NOTES Fernando Tatis Jr. 2017 San Antonio (AA) 19 Repeated Double-A in 2018, made Padres' Opening Day roster in 2019 Luis Campusano 2018 Fort Wayne (A) 19 Promoted to San Diego in 2020 C.J. Abrams 2021 San Antonio (AA) 20 Made Padres' Opening Day roster in 2022 Jackson Merrill 2023 San Antonio (AA) 20 Made Padres' Opening Day roster in 2024 Ethan Salas 2023 San Antonio (AA) 17 Began 2025 season in San Antonio As expected, Salas' defense was ahead of his offense that first year, but the kid was still considered a special talent. In 2024, Salas was assigned to High-A Fort Wayne. Again, the fielding was on point, but the hitting lagged. That had Padres concerned, so much so that in July they brought Salas to San Diego to work with the major league staff on his swing, according to MLB.com. Still, Salas did enough that year to earn a trip to both the Futures Game and the Arizona Fall League. His AFL numbers were OK: a .228/.327/.424 slash line and, more importantly, four homers in 107 PAs. Based on that performance, the Padres bumped Salas back up to San Antonio for the start of the '25 season. Would San Diego be his next stop? It would not. He appeared in just 10 games for the Missions before being diagnosed with a season-ending stress reaction in his back. Ethan Salas' Minor League Hitting Statistics YEAR CLUB PA OBP SLG OPS HR XBH ISO K% BB% 2023 Lake Elsinore 220 .350 .487 .837 9 22 .220 25.9 10.9 2023 Fort Wayne 37 .243 .229 .472 0 1 .029 27.0 5.4 2023 San Antonio 33 .303 .214 .517 0 1 .035 24.2 12.1 2024 Fort Wayne 469 .288 .311 .589 4 33 .105 20.9 10.0 2025 San Antonio 41 .325 .219 .544 0 1 .031 14.6 12.2 TOTALS 800 .305 .347 .652 13 58 .126 22.3 10.4 Ethan Salas Scouting Report Salas has the tools to be an impact big leaguer. MLB Pipeline listed his hit tool at 45 (on the 20-to-80 scale), his power tool at 50, his field tool at 70, and his arm tool at 60. Based on those scores and his three-true-outcomes stats, he profiles as a defensive stud with a good eye at the plate and power potential. He's listed at 6-1 and 185 pounds, but he's bound to add weight, and maybe height, in the next few years. He enters 2026 as No. 2 in Padres Mission's prospect rankings and No. 77 in MLB Pipeline's Top 100. That last number feels low given his talent. Ethan Salas Timetable Even though he barely played in 2025, Salas could still be rushed to the majors next year. The Padres' catching at the upper levels is that thin. Freddy Fermin, a deadline pickup last July, was the club's No. 1 receiver at the time of publication. He slashed .244/.278/.339 (70 OPS+) with two home runs in 139 plate appearances for San Diego. His backup, Luis Campusano --- a good example of a post-hype player --- spent much of last season at Triple-A El Paso. He's out of minor league options. If Salas stays healthy and shows enough progress early on, the president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, could be tempted to promote him around midseason. For now, however, the Pads are taking things slowly. In mid-November, Preller told reporters (per the Union-Tribune) at the MLB general managers' meetings in Las Vegas that Salas has resumed baseball activities and is "looking 100 percent," but the organization is "kind of weighing" whether he should play winter ball or focus on getting ready for spring training. If Salas does skip winter ball and returns around Opening Day, he'll have missed close to a year of high-intensity reps. Even an aggressive club such as the Padres might have to practice some patience. And while Salas won't be a bust by that point, the hype train will be slowing down further. View full article