Steve Drumwright

Like it or not, when it comes to NL West predictions in the era of the Death Star Dodgers, the highest every other team in the division hopes to be is second place. And with spring training less than two weeks away, various outlets are coming out with early predictions or projections for how the NL West will shake out. One of those was FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski, the mastermind behind the widely respected ZiPS projections. After doing team-by-team projections (you can read Padres Mission's review of that) over the last few months, Szymborski used updated rosters and projections to come up with division-by-division standings. As expected, when it came to the West, the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers were the clear-cut best team in baseball. By running "a million simulations," Szymborski's projection gave the Dodgers a 96-66 record. Again, not surprising. So, where did the San Diego Padres fit in? ZiPS has the Friars finishing third at 83-79, just a game behind the second-place San Francisco Giants at 84-78. Unfortunately, Szymborski doesn't spend much time analyzing why the Padres will finish in this spot, only alluding to the fragility of the starting rotation should injuries take a bite out of the staff. With the Arizona Diamondbacks projected for an 81-81 mark, it figures to be a three-way battle for second place. The Colorado Rockies bring up the rear at 61-101, following up on the worst record in MLB in 2025 with the worst projected record of 2026. Padres fans shouldn't be too surprised at any of this, knowing the rotation is thin and the depth of the position players is shaky. When it comes to making the playoffs, which is always the true goal of the regular season, the Padres have a 10% chance of winning the division and a 41.9% shot at an NL wild card. The Giants are at 14.6% for the division and 35.5% for a wild card, while the D'backs are at 6.5% and 25%. Surprisingly, the Friars had a better projection when it came to winning the World Series than the Giants. The Padres won the championship 2.8% of the time, with the D'backs next at 2% and the Giants at 1.6%. Of course, that all pales in comparison to the Dodgers, whose numbers pop off the page. L.A. checked in at winning the West 68.9% of the time, a whopping 22.3 percentage points ahead of the Seattle Mariners, who won the AL West 46.6% of the time. The Dodgers settled for a wild card at a 22.8% clip. Szymborski said of Los Angeles: "The Dodgers are still the class of the division, but their invincibility has been vastly overrated." Isn't that what the theory about the Death Star was, too? View full article

Right-hander Riley Pint, the No. 4 overall pick of the 2016 draft, has a minor-league deal with the San Diego Padres. It is likely to include an invitation to spring training, which begins next week. Selected by the Colorado Rockies out of a Kansas high school, the now 28-year-old Pint didn't take the mound at all in 2025 in his only season with the Cleveland Guardians' organization due to an undisclosed injury. Pint had spent all of his previous career with the Rockies, but made only five MLB appearances over the 2023 (one game) and 2024 seasons (four) as a reliever. Pint's journey also included a retirement during the 2021 season, but he returned the following year. In his minor-league career, Pint put up a 5.30 ERA with two eye-popping rates of 7.6 walks and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 193 games, including 40 starts. But Pint went to Driveline this offseason, which included a pro day in which he hit 97.4 mph on his fastball and a 95 mph sinker. He also threw a sweeper and a slider. Driveline helps train players through state-of-the-art techniques. He will definitely be an interesting arm to watch this spring. View full rumor

Editor's Note: Brendan Donovan was traded shortly before we could hit publish. The other candidates presented in the piece still follow as logical fits, and we wanted to preserve the "why" behind such a trade rather than the "who". Original article as follows. The San Diego Padres were pretty bad defensively at second base in 2025. Only the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, the two worst teams in MLB last year, were worse. At minus-15 defensive runs saved, per the Fielding Bible, the Friars barely outpaced those two cellar dwellars. Second base was also the worst position for the Padres, who ranked 14th in DRS with +28. The middle-infield defense was poor overall, with shortstop the next-worst position on the team at minus-8 (Xander Bogaerts was minus-4). While Friars fans love Jake Cronenworth, he was the worst offender on the entire team at minus-8 at second base. Among every player in MLB who played second, even for just a few innings, Cronenworth ranked 178th. Which is why second base needs a defensive upgrade. Even improving by 10 DRS at second would have put the Friars at No. 9 in team defense last year. The book is out on Sung Mun Song, signed this offseason out of the Korea Baseball Organization and who will get time at second base during spring training, with the job perhaps his to lose. Song was a third baseman in the KBO while also seeing action at second base, so the position is familiar to him. But what if there was a better option out there? There isn't much in terms of free agency, so any worthy upgrade is going to come from president of baseball operations A.J. Preller hitting the phones of other teams. Three names are out there worth considering: Brendan Donovan, Nico Hoerner and Isaac Paredes. All three have been the subject of trade chatter this offseason. Donovan because the St. Louis Cardinals are rebuilding and he is the last significant piece remaining; Hoerner's name has been bandied about since he is entering his final year of club control by the Chicago Cubs and is a two-time Gold Glove winner and there is an infield squeeze following the signing of third baseman Alex Bregman; while Paredes' path to playing time with the Houston Astros has been squeezed with Carlos Correa back on the roster at third base and Jose Altuve focusing back on second base. Paredes would probably be the easiest to acquire due to the lack of playing time and his salary ($8.75 million or $9.95 million, pending his arbitration hearing). But Paredes, who is under club control through 2027, hasn't played second base since 2023 and even then it was for just 14 games, putting up a minus-2 DRS. Certainly not ideal. Hoerner would be a superb addition simply from a defensive point of view, having won two of the last three NL Gold Gloves at the position. But he also brings some reliable offense to the table. Last year, he had a .297/.345/.394 slash line with seven homers, 69 RBIs and 29 stolen bases. That resulted in a career-best 4.8 fWAR. While Hoerner is in a walk year in 2026 and making $12 million, he would command a good return that the Padres' depleted farm system would struggle to satisfy. That leaves Donovan. Like Paredes, Donovan comes with two years of control remaining. He also makes less than the other two as he is set to earn $5.8 million in 2026. Donovan is average at best defensively, having posted a minus-5 DRS over the last three seasons. Still, he has been a consistent offensive performer in his four MLB seasons, with a career slash line of .282/.361/.411 with 40 homers and 202 RBIs. Donovan would need a quality return in a trade, which is again where the Padres might fall short. With the top levels of their system lacking prospects who are MLB-ready or will be by the end of the year, the Friars could put together a package of lower-level prospects. The question is whether or not the Cardinals would accept such a deal for one of the marquee names still on the trade block. Unless there is a trade, the Padres are looking at a complicated platoon of Cronenworth and Song at second base, with the former likely the favorite to start come Opening Day. View full article

The Dominican Republic's World Baseball Classic roster will include the San Diego Padres' two biggest stars. That came after third baseman Manny Machado was announced as part of the team. Previously, right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. was named to the roster. The deadline to finalize rosters is Tuesday, with official announcements made by the WBC on Thursday. This will be Machado's third appearance in the WBC, having played in 2017 and 2023 (no tournament was held in 2020 due to the pandemic). Machado is the latest to become an official member of the team. Superstar New York Mets right fielder Juan Soto was named Sunday, and Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena earlier Monday. The Dominican Republic typically has the strongest roster of all the WBC teams. View full rumor

February is here, which means pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training is on the horizon. A lot of the heavy work has been done by president of baseball operations A.J. Preller (or has it?), with the majority of players who will be reporting to Peoria, Ariz., already on the roster. Still, there are some soft spots, including the bench. Which of those players will be on the Opening Day roster come March 26 when the Friars host two-time reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers at Petco Park? Let's take a position-by-position look to see who those 26 will be. Starting Rotation (5) Nick Pivetta Michael King Joe Musgrove Randy Vasquez JP Sears There was a saying by the old Boston team that was in the NL in the 1948 season when referring to its starting staff of "Spahn and Sain, then pray for rain." Well, this Padres rotation isn't at that level, but could be if it could gets hit by injuries. And that is with the knowledge that Musgrove has yet to pitch in a game since having Tommy John surgery in October 2024. Musgrove will be 16 months removed from that procedure when spring training begins and recently said he is in a "good position" to begin 2026. The veteran right-hander only made 19 regular-season starts in 2024, as he battled elbow ailments before blowing it out in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series vs. Atlanta. That came after a 2023 season in which he was limited to 17 starts due to a weightlifting incident in which he broke a toe (and developed shoulder issues). If Musgrove can hit the ground running to begin the season, the Friars' top three of him, Nick Pivetta, and Michael King will be just fine. It is a big season for all three right-handers. While Musgrove is hoping to remain healthy, Pivetta and King have contract motivations. Both have opt-outs following 2026, so this could be the last season for the duo in San Diego. That carrot at the end of the stick serves as additional motivation to do well, knowing a payday is waiting for them. Pivetta had a breakthrough 2025 in his first season with the Padres, finishing sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting. King returned to the Friars after receiving a qualifying offer and, sensing a soft market, took a three-year, $75 million deal that pays him $17 million in 2026. Shoulder and knee injuries hampered him in 2025, when he made just 15 starts. After that, the Friars are hoping for the best. Vasquez made 26 starts (28 appearances) last year and had a 4.85 FIP and 3.84 ERA. Sears is the only left-hander in this group and made just five starts with a 6.18 FIP after coming over from the A's in the Mason Miller trade. The options should anyone go down are left-hander Kyle Hart and right-handers Matt Waldron and Miguel Mendez. Another low-cost addition to the rotation wouldn't be surprising before Opening Day. Bullpen (8) Mason Miller Adrian Morejon Jeremiah Estrada Wandy Peralta David Morgan Yuki Matsui Bradley Rodriguez Ron Marinaccio This is a pretty good group even after the loss of closer Robert Suarez to free agency. Miller's acquisition at the trade deadline softens Suarez's loss a bit. Morejon, Estrada and Peralta will be the key performers in bullpen that could get a lot of work early in the season with Musgrove's uncertainty and the dependance on Vasquez and Sears in the rotation. Morgan was a true find last year, coming out of nowhere to earn a trusted spot in the bullpen, making 41 appearances. Rodriguez is an exciting prospect to watch, having also made his MLB debut in 2025 like Morgan. Rodriguez has been a top prospect and made seven MLB appearances and could earn a vital role as the season goes along. Marinaccio will be looking to prove himself after being on the shuttle to Triple-A El Paso in 2025. He gets this opportunity thanks to a couple of injuries; right-handers Jason Adam (ruptured left quadriceps tendon) and Jhony Brito (right elbow surgery) aren't expected to be ready for Opening Day. Brito would be the first one back following internal brace surgery as well as a procedure to fix his flexor tendon that sidelined him all of 2025. Adam might not be too far behind depending on his recovery after being injured Sept. 1. A ruptured quad tendon has a recovery time of six-nine months — Feb. 1 marks six months. Matsui has been solid, albeit with some rocky experiences. Catcher (2) Freddy Fermin Luis Campusano The only truly locked-in position for the Friars at this moment. Fermin came over at the trade deadline for a big price in young starting pitchers Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. Catcher was a nonentity for the Padres most of last season, so getting anything out of Fermin, who has a .264/.309/.376 career slash line mainly as the backup to Salvador Perez, would be terrific. Campusano gets another chance after being relegated to El Paso most of last season. He had a monster year at Triple-A (.336/.441/.595, 25 homers, 95 RBIs), but other than a flash in 2023, he hasn't shown that ability at the MLB level. Combine that with suspect defense and you get why this might be his last chance in a Friars uniform. Campusano could see time as the designated hitter, too. Infield (6) Manny Machado (3B) Xander Bogaerts (SS) Jake Cronenworth (2B-1B) Gavin Sheets (1B) Sung Mun Song (2B-3B) Mason McCoy (SS-2B) This group could use another bat, especially if the DH comes from here. Machado and Bogaerts are the no-doubters here at third base and shortstop, respectively. The true wild card is Song, the free-agent signee from South Korea. The 29-year-old had two really productive years in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2024 and 2025, posting slash lines of .340/.409/.518 and .315/.387/.530 with a combined 45 homers, 194 RBIs and 46 stolen bases. While his natural position of third base is manned by Machado, if he can prove a capable glove at second base, a position he did play in the KBO, and adjust to MLB pitching, the Padres could be sitting in a good spot offensively. He is also expected to see some time in the outfield in spring training to see how he fits there. Song at second would allow Cronenworth to slide to first base, with the veteran infielder playing second when Song spells Machado. For a better defense, Sheets is better-suited to be the DH (he had 64 starts each in left field and DH and 13 at first in 2025). The real question on the infield is who will get the other backup spot: McCoy or Will Wagner. Neither will give you much of anything offensively, so it will be up to their defense. The other contender here is Jose Miranda, who has a minor-league deal with a spring training invite. While he does have the ability to hit, Miranda is a corner infielder, leaving the Friars without a backup shortstop. McCoy and Wagner have options left, so one will start in the minors. Another option could be to carry McCoy and Wagner and go with four outfielders with Sheets and Song being able to flex out there. Outfield (5) Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) Jackson Merrill (CF) Ramon Laureano (LF) Bryce Johnson (OF) Tirso Ornelas (LF-RF) Tatis, Merrill and Laureano are the clear-cut starters from right field to left. Defensively, it might be the best trio in all of baseball, thanks to the addition of Laureano at the trade deadline. That will certainly bolster any shortcomings in the starting rotation. Offensively, Merrill had a down sophomore year after finishing second in the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year voting. Some of that downswing can be attributed to injuries. Merrill had a strained right hamstring, a concussion and a bone bruise in his left ankle. Laureano is coming off one of his best offensive years, which included him matching his career high with 24 homers. Johnson is a solid backup who can play all three spots and had a really good offensive showing in 2025. In just 55 games, he slashed .342/.383/.434, with his batting average nearly double what he had in limited time in his first three MLB seasons (.177). Then we get to Ornelas, who is primarily a corner guy who has some experience in center. Ornelas made his MLB debut in 2025, appearing in seven games, and doesn't bring much in the way or power or sustained speed on the basepaths. A recent addition on a minor-league deal, Samad Taylor could also be in the mix for the last roster spot. View full article

Luis Arraez, winner of three consecutive batting titles, is joining a different NL West team for 2026. The infielder has agreed to a one-year contract with the San Francisco Giants, according to several reports. Bob Nightengale of USA Today said the deal is for $12 million. Arraez became a free agent after completing his arbitration eligibility with the Padres in 2025, a season in which he earned $14 million. The Friars reportedly extended an early offer for Arraez to return after being acquired via trade early in the 2024 season, in which he completed the batting title hat trick. Arraez became the first player in MLB history to win three straight batting crowns with different teams. He did it with the Minnesota Twins (.316 in 2022), Miami Marlins (.354 in 2023), and the Padres (.314 in 2024). In 2025, Arraez overcame a slow start to finish with a .293 average and an NL-leading 181 hits. The problem with Arraez is that he lacks a true defensive home. The 28-year-old has played every infield position and settled into second base with the Twins and Marlins. That was his home early with the Padres before being shifted to first base. According to a report Saturday before the deal with the Giants was finalized, Arraez had one-year and multiyear deals on the table, with his preference to play second base a potentially decisive factor. The Giants have veteran Rafael Devers and top hitting prospect Bryce Eldridge penciled in at first base and designated hitter entering spring training, leaving second base open for Arraez. Casey Schitt had been the projected starter at second before this move, which comes on the heels of signing Harrison Bader to play center. The Padres are going with some combination of Jake Cronenworth and Sung Mun Song at second base. View full rumor

Needing more competition and depth for the starting rotation, the San Diego Padres have agreed to terms on a minor-league deal with left-hander Marco Gonzales, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Gonzales not only has an invitation to spring training, but would make $1.5 million if he makes the team with $1 million in incentives, Heyman reported. Set to turn 34 on Feb. 16, Gonzales has spent 10 seasons in MLB, including last year with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Due to a variety of elbow issues, Gonzales only made seven starts in 2025 with a 4.71 FIP and 4.54 ERA. The Pirates declined a $15 million option on Gonzales for 2026. The Friars' rotation currently is comprised of Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vasquez, and JP Sears. All are right-handers except for Sears. Left-hander Kyle Hart and right-hander Matt Waldron are other options for the rotation already on the roster. View full rumor

As the calendar nears February, just a couple weeks away from the beginning of spring training, the San Diego Padres' roster feels incomplete. Another starting pitcher and a player on the right side of the infield, whether at second base or first, would make Friars fans more comfortable as the Padres attempt to dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers not only in the NL West, but as two-time defending World Series champions. What could be the holdup? Certainly not the curiosity of A.J. Preller, the Padres' president of baseball operations. Preller crawls under rocks to find players to bring to San Diego and goes out and gets them. While the overall tenor of this offseason has been slow, with more movement in January than in the month of December and the Winter Meetings, the Padres have clearly been limited for financial reasons. If they wanted to add a premier arm via free agency, that would cost anywhere from $20 million to $30 million. A hitter, especially with those remaining on the market, would be less than that. Not a problem, right? Petco Park is sold out basically every night, which means lots of food, drink and memorabilia sold at every home game. Except for one thing. The Padres' payroll sits at about $226 million per Spotrac and $217 million per Cot's. Those are Opening Day salary numbers and not competitive-balance tax numbers, which are the ones that owners truly care about regarding paying potential penalties for various thresholds. Those jump up to $269 million and $263 million, respectively. The level at which teams started paying a CBT penalty in 2025 was $241 million. The Padres' CBT payroll in 2025 was $270 million, on which they paid a 32% penalty on the amount above $241 million. That means a roughly $9.3 million tax from last year. The penalties increase each consecutive year a team is a payor. (For clarity, it is a 20% flat charge for a first-year violation on anything over the first threshold with a $12% addition for being $20 million-$40 million above that number. That gets you to 32%.) That $241 million modestly increases to $244 million in 2026, per the current collective bargaining agreement. Taking the lower of the $269 million (Spotrac) and $263 million (Cot's) projected CBT payrolls, which includes benefits payments and contributions for the one-to-three-year player-pool bonuses, that puts the Friars at $19 million above the initial CBT threshold. As a second-year payor, that hikes the Padres' tax rate to a 30%, Going above $264 million, which is a certainty as the roster is currently constructed, adds the 12% penalty for being $20 million-$40 million above the initial threshold. That makes the total tax at this point 42%. At the lowest end of that, the Friars face an $8.4 million penalty. That is without spending another dollar above $264 million. A $10 million signing or acquisition, barring any subtractions in a trade, would put that number at $274 million and a $12.6 million tax. Adding another $20 million in payroll this season would put the Padres at $284 million, which is $40 million above the initial threshold and jumps the 12% surcharge to 42.5%. That would make the penalty 72.5% for anything above $244 million and take the financial hit to $29 million. For a team that has reportedly had past financial issues and is currently being shopped around for sale, that would seem to be a steep price. Unless, of course, a sale is further down the road than we are aware of and the new, deep-pocketed owner has given their approval. Which, as you know, is unlikely, and would still be a hard sell given the copious amounts of onerous, long-term contracts the Friars have on the books. In 2023, the Padres had the highest payroll in franchise history at $291.2 million. This season is rapidly approaching besting last year's $270 million, the No. 2 figure. Pending changes to the CBA next offseason, the Friars are facing a third straight year of being a payor in 2027. Under the current system, that would hike the base tax rate from 30% to 50%. The question remains: Are the Padres willing to spend more to compete or roll the dice with what they have? View full article

With the San Diego Padres still looking to bolster their starting rotation, the team has been connected with a pitcher they have seen a lot in recent years. That would be right-hander Zac Gallen, a free agent after pitching for the Arizona Diamondbacks since 2019. According to MLB Network insider Jon Heyman, the Friars have "checked in" on Gallen. But Heyman also immediately threw water on the idea by grouping the Padres with the Los Angeles Angels and saying those two teams aren't "big spenders." Instead, Heyman points to a return to the Diamondbacks as a possibility due to Gallen having a qualifying offer, while the Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles would be the other top contenders. Gallen had a bumpy 2025, with a 4.50 FIP and 4.83 ERA in 33 starts, although he was much better down the stretch, with a 3.32 ERA after Aug. 1. View full rumor

It is a good thing the San Diego Padres have three left-handers in their current bullpen setup for the 2026 season. All three are going to be vital in matchups against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the back-to-back World Series champions who feature four left-handed hitters in their starting lineup. All four are superstar-quality hitters following the recent addition of free-agent right fielder Kyle Tucker on a four-year, $240 million contract. If you thought that Adrian Morejon, Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui already had their hands full with the Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, Tucker just adds to the problem. Morejon shoulders the brunt of the key-situation responsibility as the top lefty out of the Friars' bullpen. Overall, the soon-to-be 27-year-old, set to become a free agent after the 2026 season, does well against left-handed hitters, sporting a .225 opponent batting average. But it isn't the same against the Dodgers' quartet, even if it does come in a small sample size. Once thought to be a closer-in-waiting for the Padres, Matsui has turned out to be a middle-innings bullpen piece as he enters his third season since coming over from Japan. Matsui has allowed an opponent batting average of .241 to left-handed batters in MLB, while Peralta is at .221 and Morejon is at .225. Containing Ohtani has been difficult, even for the Padres. Morejon, Peralta and Matsui have allowed 10 hits in 32 at-bats (.313) to the four-time MVP. Freeman has also owned Peralta (5-for-12), but Morejon and Matsui have limited him to just a 2-for-15 line. This trio will need to be at its best if the Padres are to have a shot at competing with the Dodgers in 2026. View full article

With about a week before rosters are announced for all World Baseball Classic teams, right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres was named to represent the Dominican Republic. Tatis was not on the DR's roster for the 2023 WBC as he was coming off a 2022 season in which he was injured and then suspended for using a performance-enhancing drug that lasted into the 2023 season. Padres teammate Manny Machado, the third baseman who was on the Dominican Republic's roster for the last WBC, has not yet been officially named to the team but is expected to be on the 30-player roster. The Dominican Republic often has the most talented roster of any WBC team. The DR was the pre-tournament favorite in 2023, but went 2-2 in pool play and did not advance to the knockout round. View full rumor

Samad Taylor, an infielder-outfielder who has seen MLB action with two teams, has reportedly signed a minor-league contract with the San Diego Padres. Taylor also received a non-roster invite to spring training. The 27-year-old was a 10th-round draft choice by Cleveland in the 2016 draft out of Corona High School, about 90 minutes north of San Diego. Taylor was recently designated for assignment by the Seattle Mariners and elected free agency. Taylor has appeared in 38 MLB games, including seven over the past two seasons with the Mariners. He made his MLB debut in 2023 with the Kansas City Royals, playing in 31 games. Taylor has a career slash line of .205/.272/.260 with no homers, four RBIs, and eight stolen bases. He was dealt by Cleveland at the 2017 trade deadline, with left-hander Thomas Pannone to the Toronto Blue Jays for right-hander Joe Smith. At the 2022 deadline, he was shipped to the Royals with right-hander Max Castillo for second baseman Whit Merrifield. Taylor was on the move once again in January 2024, going from the Royals to the Mariners for a player to be named, which became right-hander Natanael Garabitos. Taylor will battle for the last outfield spot on the Padres' roster with the likes of Tirso Ornelas. View full rumor