Ian Happ's Glove Would Change the Dynamics of the Padres' Outfield, but His Bat Is A Major Question Mark

Every time I think about the San Diego Padres’ defense, it is inevitable to remember some key moments from the postseason. One of them, perhaps the most unusual, was how Cooper Pratt managed to score from third base on a sacrifice fly in Game 3 of the NLDS. It was a fly ball practically behind the shortstop, and left fielder Dustin Harris made a terrible throw to home plate, without enough power or accuracy. We also have to give a lot of credit to Pratt, who made an impressive run with a sprint speed of 29.6 feet/sec, in just 3.76 seconds from third base to home plate. Harris’ throw was 84.9 mph, well below the 87.4 mph average for MLB left fielders in 2026.

Padres left fielders averaged 86 mph on their throws and ranked 19th in the league, creating a considerable imbalance compared to the arm strength of their center fielders (91.8 mph), who ranked seventh, and right fielders (90.6 mph), who finished in 10th place. The latter were led by Jackson Merrill (averaged 92 mph on 345 throws, recording 100.2 mph as his hardest throw of the year) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (92.9 mph average and a maximum of 100.8, the highest among all outfielders on the team in 2026).

Nick Castellanos (55 throws and an average of 80.5 mph) and Dustin Harris (58 throws and an average of 81.5 mph) were the outfielders with the worst arm strength, but that is not the only metric that reveals the Padres’ major defensive problem with their left fielders.

The story is more complicated than it seems, and perhaps it has gone a little more unnoticed because players like Samad Taylor, Harris, and Gavin Sheets had notable offensive contributions during the season. However, Ramon Laureano was the only left fielder who managed to play even league-average defense, recording +1 Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average. It gets worse, though; do you have any idea how many Padres left fielders have been able to play at least 500 innings and finish with a positive Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) mark in a single season over the last decade?

If you thought of Jurickson Profar and his exploits trying to rob home runs, along with the whole bunch of entertaining plays he made at the time, that is the correct answer. But that was four years ago, when Profar played 1,237⅔ innings at the position and recorded +3 DRS, although his OAA (-4) and FRV (-1) grades were negative. Do you remember anyone else? Jose Pirela is the only other player who joins Profar, leading the ranking with +3 DRS in 536 ⅔ innings during the 2017 season.

Which players are we missing? Well, of course, some familiar names, but they were all a disaster: Juan Soto had -5 DRS and -7 OAA in 1,345 innings in 2023, Tommy Pham recorded -3 DRS and -8 FRV during his time with the team in 2021, and Profar himself finished with -8 DRS and -6 FRV over 1,203⅔ innings in 2024.

I think this entire history of the chaos they have gone through is enough for San Diego to make acquiring an elite left fielder who can change this disappointing narrative one of its highest priorities, which is why Ian Happ has to be on their radar. Happ has won four Gold Gloves over the last five seasons and was among the finalists this year in pursuit of his fifth consecutive award, but he was outvoted by the Milwaukee Brewers’ star left fielder, Jackson Chourio.

Even so, Happ remained in the 96th percentile in arm value, showing great arm strength that would offer tremendous security in the Padres’ outfield alongside Merrill and Tatis. Happ has accumulated +47 DRS throughout his career in left field, and 57% of that total (27) has come in these last three seasons, so his defensive contribution remains one of his main strengths.

Now, the 2026 season left some questions, especially because of the regression in his expected averages, falling from the 61st percentile to the 3rd in xBA and from the 70th to the 41st in xSLG. Even so, he remains an elite hitter in terms of his ability to walk and avoid chasing pitches outside the zone, in addition to maintaining his power impact with at least 20 home runs in six of his ten seasons with the Chicago Cubs (including at least 23 in each of the last three seasons).

That said, there is a key point that made the difference in Happ’s offensive decline this year, as he finished with a 107 wRC+, his worst mark since 2021. He's been a switch-hitter his entire career, but when batting from the right side against left-handed pitchers, he was a mess in 2026. The results are absolutely puzzling.

As you can see, the difference in wRC+ was ridiculous, including whichever splits you analyze, as if we were looking at two different hitters. Now, look at a couple of details: Happ struck out at a similar rate, but the biggest difference was in his walk rate, 14.5% against right-handers and just 6.3% against left-handers. Then, another key point was BABIP, which is based only on balls put in play, and the drop was also considerable, from .360 to .200. His pitch selection against lefties was the root of the problem, as Happ saw his swing rate on pitches in the strike zone fall considerably, dropping from the 81st percentile to the 44th compared to his 2024 season, when he recorded a 103 wRC+ in this split.

But, in general, those major problems Happ has against left-handed pitchers are not new, as he averages an 89 wRC+ for his career. However, the .217 on-base percentage, .267 slugging percentage, and 36 wRC+ in those 144 plate appearances this year marked a low point he had never reached before.

That does not completely erase the fact that Happ is an interesting option for the Padres, although there are clearly other players who could generate much more interest, especially high-profile free agents like Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki. Happ would bring a higher floor and better glove to the table than either of those two stars (plus he's not attached to the qualifying offer), so the question will be what the Friars value most from what will ostensibly be their third-most important outfielder.

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