Jake Cronenworth vs. the Projections, the Profile, and Himself

[Randy Holt]

Despite standing on the precipice of a World Series berth just six months ago, questions permeate the air in America's Finest City™. Chief among them: the future of the Padres' second-baseman-turned-first-baseman-turned-second-baseman.

When the Padres rewarded Jake Cronenworth with a seven-year extension ahead of the 2023 season, it was clear they saw him as a permanent piece of their lineup. Given the contract's fairly modest nature (a shade over $11 million per year), it seemed logical.

After a breakout during the sprint of 2020, Cronenworth posted 3.7 fWAR in each of the two subsequent seasons, combining for 38 home runs and a 113 wRC+. A versatile infielder with above-average production that can hit all over the lineup? You pay that price for that type of player without hesitation. Of course, you also expect that production level to maintain into even year one of said deal.

The latest pair of seasons has featured a clunky transition to first base and a notable decline in offensive production. Cronenworth was a below-average performer by wRC+ (91) in 2023 and just scratched back to above in 2024 (104). While it hasn't been to the extent of some of his counterparts throughout the roster, Cronenworth's name also hasn't been immune to floating around in the trade rumor ether. Could 2025 provide a reset regarding his value and our overall expectations? 

Cronenworth's move to first was necessitated by the long-term deal awarded to Xander Bogaerts. At that moment, Ha-Seong Kim was forced to second and Cronenworth to first. An early injury to Bogaerts last year was a factor in the team's acquisition of Luis Arráez. And while Arráez wound up splitting time between first base and designated hitter, Cronenworth still spent almost 150 more innings at first than second. With Kim now in Tampa Bay, the configuration resets to allow Cronenworth to return to the keystone full-time, with brief cameos still likely set to unfold at first.

Not entirely unlike Arráez, who exists as his separate conversation in all of this, one of the issues with Cronenworth logging such heavy time at first base is in the profile. In 2025, the average ISO figure for a qualifying first baseman was .174. The average on-base percentage was .321, and the average home run total was 21. Comprehensively, the position averaged a wRC+ of 114 when it was all said and done. In contrast, second base went .135, .325, 15, and 104, respectively, in that hodgepodge of offensive figures. Given Cronenworth's output, which included a .149 ISO, .324 OBP, 17 homers, and a 105 wRC+, which position fits his skill set more appropriately is fairly straightforward. 

The profile is important because it allows you to manage expectations properly. Cronenworth was never an ideal offensive first baseman. His career ISO checks in at .163, and his home run power peaked in 2021 when he hit 21. He was also a 40th percentile guy in average exit velocity, a 29th percentile guy in Hard Hit %, and a 50th percentile guy in Barrel %. While he's consistently demonstrated a keen approach and an ability to avoid the K, the power just isn't there to support the idea of him as a regular first-sacker. 

And this is all working in Jake Cronenworth's favor for 2025. The power output has stabilized around the .150 mark in ISO, and his OBP regularly sits above .320. If you're getting that out of him again in the upcoming season, you're getting average second-base production at worst. Steamer has him at .242/.322/.393/.714, with a .151 ISO and 105 wRC+. ZiPS is at .240/.322/.391/.713, .152, and 104. The rest of the projections down the list convey a similar idea. 

It is also worth considering whether he can beat those projections and exceed expectations that have been redefined after two underwhelming seasons. 

Not much has changed in the approach. There's been an uptick in swing rate since his first two years, but that also came largely in the zone. The result was fewer called strikes, but there isn't a recognizable detriment in that slight increase in aggression. Nor can we glean too much out of his pitch selection. Offspeed has sat atop his swing rates each year in the bigs. Fastballs and breaking pitches have alternated throughout. But nothing discernible there, either. 

The swing has looked the same, too. So, it doesn't appear to be anything mechanical. Perhaps Statcast's new batter positioning data could give us some insight. Unless it's there, the only explanation is that Cronenworth has always been what he is now rather than hoping for some sort of return to a form that doesn't exist. That would leave the first two seasons as something of an aberration rather than an actual decline. 

But, again, even if there isn't more in the bat than we've seen, the current iteration of Jake Cronenworth is perfectly acceptable for his new (old) role. A return to the keystone should allow him to return to above-average defense, with his occasional versatility being a boon for the roster construction as a whole. The Cronenworth narrative exists in its current form largely as a byproduct of the move to first base. Don't underestimate the psychological impact of returning to a position of comfort.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

It seems like a gimme that he'll perform better on a WAR-per-at-bat basis if he's playing at second regularly. He graded as a slight negative there in 2024 but the innings were limited. I think he continues to bounce back after bottoming out in 2023.

[Brandon Glick]

A lot of this is about perception. Cronenworth has never had the bat to be a star first baseman. His slash lines look a whole lot better compared to the Nico Hoerners of the world rather than Pete Alonso.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Brandon Glick said:

A lot of this is about perception. Cronenworth has never had the bat to be a star first baseman. His slash lines look a whole lot better compared to the Nico Hoerners of the world rather than Pete Alonso.

Exactly. He was never a good fit at first base, though the Padres don't have anyone who is...