Randy Vásquez Is Avoiding the Barrel and Finding Stability

[Randy Holt]

Is the Padres' worst starter from 2024 now their secret weapon?

It feels like there's a dash of cruelty in labeling a pitcher as the "worst" on a team that made a playoff run in 2024. But it fits rather inarguably in the case of Randy Vásquez.

Vásquez's first year with the San Diego Padres saw him finish at the bottom of those who threw at least 50 innings for the Friars last year in most categories. He sat at the bottom in fWAR (0.8), strikeout rate (14.4%), and whiff rate (8.1%), while permitting more contact than anyone else in the starting group (83.7%). His 39.5% hard-hit rate checked in behind Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Unlike those two, however, he didn't have an additional element — groundballs in Musgrove's case and strikeouts for Darvish — to compensate for quality contact against. 

It wasn't a tremendously big sample, of course. Vásquez threw 98 innings with the big club for a staff that was deeper (and healthier) in 2024. However, he looked even worse in El Paso, pitching to a 8.21 ERA and stranding only 58.7% of baserunners. If this year's staff could expect a full season from Musgrove, any clarity on Darvish's health, or a sense of when Matt Waldron might be effective again, Vásquez's story might be different. As it is, a lack of depth combined with a decent-enough exhibition slate in the spring to afford him another shot. 

And while he's been imperfect, Vásquez has been every bit as important to the Padres' strong start as counterparts like Michael King or Dylan Cease. Perhaps even more so, given his role. 

Vásquez's early-season numbers are wildly interesting. He's allowed just four earned runs through four starts and 20 2/3 innings. That he's pitched to a 1.74 ERA through four starts, though, is deceiving; he's also at a low 9.3% strikeout rate, a ballooned 16.3% walk rate, and a 4.28 FIP, with a .219 batting average allowed on balls in play. His Baseball Savant percentile distribution is doing its best impression of Arnold Schwarzenegger's Mr. Freeze in Batman & Robin: 

You can't argue with results, but you also have to wonder just how long before regression hits Vásquez in the hardest fashion possible. At the same time, that hard-hit rate stands out. Not only because it's the only strong component of his game thus far, but because of how he's managed to stifle quality contact in the face of everything else happening right now. 

There's some potentially interesting stuff happening with his arm angle & release point, but we'll wait until the sample expands before believing too much in it. For now, let's talk about the pitch mix: 

The steep decline in four-seam usage is notable, as it appears to have made way for the cutter. It's a logical move for Vásquez; his four-seam was barreled at an 11.7% rate last year. Only his changeup (also experiencing a heavy decline of its own) was hit harder (12.5%). It was also elevated (flyballs and line drives) at a 61.1% rate last year. Not an ideal combination for a guy who finished in the front half of the home run per fly ball leaderboard and who doesn't compensate with any other elite area of a skill set. 

The leaning on the cutter and sweeper this year (they account for 50.4% of his pitches) has been effective. Opposing hitters are swinging at nearly half of his cutters and whiffing at a high volume against the sweeper (21.4%). They aren't elite pitches, but there's a balance issue for opposing hitters. When you throw in the other four pitches he's utilizing regularly, you're going to get a contact quality distribution like the one Vásquez features (29.7% Topped, 35.9% Under). 

Command remains an issue, even more so than last year. Perhaps there's an adjustment to the usage being made. That's something to keep an eye on. But if you're a pitcher like Vásquez, without elite strikeout stuff, avoiding the barrel is the next best thing. For the Padres, it's an invaluable quality. There isn't a lot of depth here. Getting roughly five innings of minimal-run ball from Vásquez could end up being an invaluable component given the strength of their bullpen and overall offensive output. 

We'll continue to monitor some intricacies here, but we've already learned early on that Vásquez doesn't have to be perfect. He just has to avoid the barrel.

View full article

[Brandon Glick]

Definitely the development that has me most excited this season with Musgrove out