Is Going Oppo Paying Off For The Padres?

[Samuel Cozart]

The Padres have taken a new approach to hitting in 2025: going oppo. San Diego’s hitters are finding the opposite side of the field at a much higher rate this year, propelling them to the top of the league in that category. Down the lineup, Padres hitters are going opposite field at a much higher rate, whether it’s for better or worse. 

Over the past three seasons, the Padres have increasingly favored hitting towards the opposite field over pulling for power, with the 2025 season featuring a significant jump in those splits. In 2025, they ranked first in Major League Baseball in opposite-field hitting, up from 17th in 2024 and 27th in 2023. However, this approach means sacrificing power for the sake of contact. San Diego now ranks 21st in the majors this season, compared to 11th and 13th in their previous two campaigns. 

Part of this change in approach comes from hitters who have established themselves as power hitters taking a more well-rounded approach to hitting. Manny Machado exemplifies the team’s shift from being power-reliant hitters to a more versatile group. 

According to Baseball Savant, 25.9% of Machado’s hits have gone to the opposite field this season, a more-than 3% rise from 2024. With that, his home run production has gone down. Machado has only sent six balls out of the park so far this year, putting him on pace for an out-of-character low number of homers. 

Just because Machado isn’t putting as many balls in the bleachers, it doesn’t mean that he isn’t having a productive year at the plate. 2025 has been a career season for Machado in terms of productivity at the plate. With a .328 xBA according to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 100th percentile of the MLB and is on pace for a career-high batting average. He also boasts a .382 on-base percentage, which is good enough for 11th in MLB and would be another career high mark if the season ended today. 

In a case like Machado’s, the approach of pulling less for power is paying off. Hitting more to the opposite field has allowed for a career year in terms of efficiency. 

Machado isn’t the only hitter on San Diego finding the opposite field at a much higher rate this season. Even the club’s contact hitters are sending balls in the opposite direction at a much higher rate in 2025. Luis Arraez, the two-time reigning National League batting champion, has had a spike in his Oppo%. 

37.6% of Arraez’s hits are going oppo, according to Baseball Savant. That tremendously high mark is a career-high and a nearly 7% increase from 2024. Arraez is already a perennial contact hitter, but his increased percentage of opposite-field hits supports the notion that this approach is a team-wide initiative. Unlike Machado, Arraez isn’t experiencing quite the same dip in power hitting, but is having a down year in productivity. 

Arraez currently sits at a .290 batting average and a .324 OBP, which would be career-low marks for the contact-hitting machine. The downgrade of Arraez’s productivity shows that San Diego’s new approach of hitting for the opposite field isn’t working all the way down the lineup. For players like Arraez, who already had no problem getting on base, this new approach might be an unnecessary change. 

Amongst the hitters producing the most power for the Padres this season, a good amount of their hits are still traveling to the opposite field. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Gavin Sheets lead the team in home runs in 2025, yet are still going oppo at a high rate. 

Tatis owns an Oppo% of 23.5%, while Sheets goes to left field 24.6% of the time. Both numbers are right around league average, showing the consistent theme of Padres players consistently hitting that mark. Both Tatis and Sheets balance the team-wide trend of hitting the ball to the opposite field more, with a focus on hitting for power. 

Per Baseball Savant, Tatis boasts a .548 xSLG%, which is the 92nd percentile of MLB hitters. Sheets is also on pace for a career-high in that category, with a .497 xSLG% himself. Both players provide much-needed power to a lineup that has lacked it this season, while also contributing to the team's approach of hitting to more parts of the field. 

San Diego’s new approach of increased opposite-field hitting has given the Padres a new identity, one that was previously power-reliant. Despite its benefits, there are concerning drawbacks to the approach. On top of the decreased number of home runs, the Padres rank 16th league-wide in runs scored in 2025, as opposed to 8th in 2024. 

Despite the concerns, manager Mike Shildt sees the strategy as an important one. An article from FriarWire quoted Shildt on the need to hit to the opposite field:

“The opposite field hitting is very important to maintain,” said Shildt. “Just look at it from a common-sense viewpoint. You have a whole big field out there. You might as well use it all. The game has reverted to a state where you can’t overcorrect and shift. That is for a reason.”

For this strategy to reach its full potential, the Padres must find the proper balance between sacrificing power for productivity and swinging for the fences. Luckily, they have multiple perspectives of that balance within the team, from Machado’s maximization of productivity to Tatis’ and Sheets’ blend of contact and power. 

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