Is There Any Hope For The Padres To Salvage The Xander Bogaerts Contract?

[Randy Holt]

In the interest of full disclosure, the following was written prior to Xander Bogaerts' 4-for-4 performance in Los Angeles on Thursday night. And while it was a treat to see him perform in such a way as he did, it doesn't change the ultimate outlook given everything else we have to go off from 2025.

With that in mind, it's difficult to find a superlative that gets to the heart of just how bad the Xander Bogaerts contract has been for the San Diego Padres. So hard-pressed to find a compliment for Manny Machado & Fernando Tatis Jr., the team signed a 30-year-old player without a ton of favorable projectability onto their payroll for 11 years. It was always a deal that seemed destined to fail. The midway point of year three, though, might've exceeded even the Padres' optimistic projection. 

The struggles of Bogaerts have drawn recent comparisons to Eric Hosmer, whose own disastrous deal remains on the payroll through the end of this year. While it's difficult to make such a dire comparison between the two — Bogaerts, for example, posted 6.6 fWAR in his first two seasons in San Diego while Hosmer sat at -1.0 fWAR — it speaks to the perception that has developed around the San Diego shortstop. 

You hate to pile on a guy that is acutely aware of the perception that surrounds him, as Bogaerts appears to be. This quote, following Wednesday's latest loss, is fairly telling (from MLB.com): 

Quote

“One of the few positive things I do, it don’t even last a couple minutes,” said a sullen Bogaerts afterward. “Will Smith comes in right there and homers right away -- it’s brutal.”

However, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Padres have reached this point with their starting shortstop. The following is Bogaerts' year-over-year wOBA: 

That thing has been in steady decline since 2021. Most metrics are going to tell you a similar story. His wRC+ has gone 129, 133, 119, 95, and 76 thus far in '25. His isolated slugging has read .198, .149, .154, .117, and .086. His Hard-Hit% goes 43.0, 39.5, 34.3, 33.0, and 37.8 percent. There is a slight variability, but each figure is far more indicative of decline than any other possible explanation. 

Each metric has essentially combined with the expected metrics (xBA, xSLG, etc.) to give Bogaerts the worst season of his career. And there isn't much to suggest that change is on the horizon. He's been able to increase his bat speed but has lost some consistency in squaring up on pitches. He's not generating more power, which pinpoints his inability to provide value when making contact. Essentially all of Bogaerts' present value to the lineup is wrapped up in walks and baserunning. Which is, of course, a problem when you're talking about another eight years on the books. 

As the Padres waver in their hope in the 2025 (divisional) standings, is it time to abandon it specifically in relation to Xander Bogaerts? Realistically, there isn't much that can be done. There are a few possible outcomes in the short term, however. 

The most optimistic read is that the team starts to figure it out at the plate. Jackson Merrill returns, the team starts hitting, and Bogaerts' present skill set becomes a perfectly acceptable secondary component in the lineup. There is a way for Bogaerts to contribute without relying on power. But the impact is going to have to come from somewhere else. Then, you can start to worry about the contract a little bit later and focus on the other needs that are currently glaring on this roster. 

The second-most optimistic scenario is that the Padres are able to find a trade partner for Bogaerts on the market. You'll likely have to eat a good chunk of the remaining money, but you can at least free up some payroll and examine other potential avenues at the position. Given the lack of depth on the roster, it's a bit of a tougher sell from a present standpoint. But if you're starting to think longer-term, then it makes some degree of sense. The Detroit Tigers have been (loosely, through information aggregators more than any actual source) linked to Bogaerts at this point. 

At the end of the day, the most likely outcome is the most dour one. The Padres are stuck with Xander Bogaerts on their roster until they're willing to eat the entirety of what remains on his contract. You'd obviously prefer a different direction. Either a world wherein Bogaerts is able to recover some semblance of value to complement his relatively solid defense, or the team is able to find a taker for some of the remaining money. But without an indicator in the underlying metrics that Bogaerts is being pinned down with any sort of bad luck or a change in money-saving attitude from a Major League Baseball team, you're likely looking at Door #3. 

Of course, there's a chance that Thursday night was, in fact, the start of something, and we forget all about this conversation by August. 

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