Wild Card War: Where Do The Padres Line Up In The Second-Half Race To October?

[Greg Spicer]

The MLB All-Star break is wrapping up, and teams are preparing to take on the grueling second half of the MLB season. Despite being 96 games into the schedule, the National League wildcard race is still fluctuating every day. The Padres, at 52-44, sit in sixth place in the National League standings, giving them the final playoff spot for now. 

Major MLB stat websites are giving San Diego the edge in playoff chance calculations. FanGraphs predicts that San Diego will take the sixth playoff spot with a 48.0% chance of making it, 2.9% higher than their division opponent, the San Francisco Giants. Baseball Reference is even more favorable to the Padres, giving them a 49.6% playoff chance (sixth in N.L.), 13% higher than the Giants at 36.6%.

Although they are beginning the final stretch in a strong position, San Diego has a lot of work to do if they are going to maintain control of their postseason position. The Giants are just a half-game back of the Padres and have been trading places with them throughout the season. After San Francisco, the NL Central’s Reds and Cardinals are also within striking distance at 2 1/2 and 1 1/2 games back, respectively. 

The squad will certainly be focused on the wildcard, but one hot streak could set the team's sights even higher. The high-spending Los Angeles Dodgers have been dominant, but they haven’t run away with the division, as they stand just 5.5 games ahead of the Padres in the N.L. West could become just as much of a wildcard in San Diego. 

The first indicator of how the Padres could perform after the All-Star break is their strength of schedule. At .483, San Diego has the fourth-easiest slate remaining in MLB, giving promise to a hot end to the season. On the other hand, the Giants and Dodgers also have similar schedules, with San Francisco at .491 and Los Angeles at .487, respectively. 

With all three squads having “easy” ends to the summer, taking care of business against subpar teams such as their divisional opponent, the Colorado Rockies (22-74), could be the deciding factor. The Dodgers and Padres each have seven games left against the Rockies, and the Giants have six. If the Padres can take care of business in those series, and the Dodgers or Giants let a couple of wins get away, that will have enormous standings implications. 

Projection-wise, the Padres have some hopeful indicators that they are favored to take the final playoff spot. Of their main competition (Giants, Reds, Cardinals), they are the only team with an over .500 record in their division (14-12). If that trend holds, the Padres will have a much better chance at securing the wildcard. 

Taking a deeper dive into the Padres’ remaining games, they have two crucial stretches that will dictate how they finish the year. The first of these important spans comes immediately after the All-Star break, on Friday. San Diego begins their easiest second-half stretch, with three games each against the Nationals and Marlins, followed by a four-game slate in St. Louis to take on the Cardinals. Unfortunately, all three of these series are on the road, which could make winning a little more difficult. With the Giants playing the division-leading Blue Jays, playoff-bound Mets, and the stacked Braves during that same time, the Padres must take advantage of those series to create separation. 

The second crucial stretch takes place between Aug. 15 and Aug. 24, when the Padres play the Dodgers six times and the Giants four times. Not only is this their last chance to play either team in the regular season, but seven out of ten of these games are at home, making it their best opportunity to lock themselves into the National League playoff picture. If the standings were to remain as close as they are now, one team dominating that stretch of games will likely guarantee them a spot in the postseason. San Diego, having home-field advantage for a large chunk of that stretch, needs to dominate. 

With just 5 1/2 games separating the best record in the National League (Dodgers) and the final playoff spot (Padres), matchup projections are entirely unpredictable. No team has asserted itself as the leader of the bunch, and whichever squad starts October hot will be the one that takes the crown. Having no competition separating themselves, and three hungry teams on their tail, San Diego needs to have one simple goal in mind to end the year: Get In. 

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