Here's Why Home Field Advantage Is So Crucial For The San Diego Padres' Postseason Hopes

[Andy Johnson]

With 11 games remaining in the 2025 regular season, the Padres have put themselves in the position they need to be in. They are firmly in the Wild Card picture, with a 5.5-game lead on the seventh-seeded Diamondbacks and a four-game lead on the sixth-seeded Mets. 

Still, San Diego can't let themselves get too comfortable. The NL West title is still up for grabs, and this year, it is more important than ever for the Padres to win the West and claim home-field advantage in the playoffs. If they don't win the West, it would also benefit San Diego to surpass the Cubs for the fourth seed, although that would be more difficult. The Cubs lead San Diego by five games, while the Dodgers only lead them by two. 

As it stands, the Padres are the fifth seed in the National League. If the playoffs started today, the Padres would be traveling to Chicago for a best-of-three Wild Card series. If they catch the Dodgers, they'd become the No. 3 seed, which would give them a home series against the Mets. If they catch Chicago, they would host Chicago as the fourth seed, with the Cubs falling to the fifth seed. 

How much does home-field advantage matter to this year's Padres? A lot, as it turns out. 

Let’s look at the basics. The Padres are 47-28 at home, winning 62.6% of their games at Petco Park. Whether it’s their fans or the comfort level playing at home brings, Petco has been a massive advantage for the Padres. 

On the road, San Diego is 35-40. Compare that to the Cubs, who are 46-29 at Wrigley Field, and you have a massive mismatch in the Wild Card series. The Cubs have been great at home all year, while the Padres have struggled on the road. 

Of course, the Padres would like to avoid another heartbreaking postseason loss, and the best way they can do that is to set themselves up for an easier playoff run. Playing in Wrigley is not the ideal scenario. 

Examining the statistics, it becomes clear why the Padres have been so successful at Petco. Their pitching has been lights out. The Padres' 3.19 ERA at home is the second-best in the major leagues, trailing only the Rangers. Their 741 strikeouts at home are also the second most, trailing the Astros. Their 1.10 WHIP at home is tied with the Mariners and Rangers for the best in baseball, and their .210 opponent batting average stands alone as the best in the game. 

Compare that to the road, where San Diego’s 4.11 ERA is 13th, their 1.31 WHIP ranks 17th, and their .241 opposing average ranks 8th. 

Those stats are not bad, but they are far from elite. In Petco, the Padres' pitching staff would shut down the Cubs, Mets, or any team that might face them in the postseason. On the road, they would be vulnerable, even with Chicago’s offensive struggles in the second half of the season. 

On the other side of things, the Padres' offense has only been slightly worse on the road. 

At home, San Diego is slashing .247/.326/.380, for a .706 OPS. By OPS, their home offense ranks 20th, while their 327 runs scored is tied with the Mariners for 18th. Most notably, their 67 home runs in Petco are the fourth-fewest in the MLB, only beating out the Royals, Nationals, and Pirates. 

On the road, the Padres are slashing .256/.317/.395, for a .712 OPS. That’s the 14th-best team OPS on the road. Despite that, their 314 runs scored on the run rank 23rd. The team is hitting for a higher average and better slugging percentage on the road, but walking less. They still aren’t hitting for much power, with their 68 road home runs ranked 29th in the league. However, they are hitting a lot more doubles. At Petco, San Diego’s 94 doubles are the fewest in baseball. Their 148 doubles on the road are the most in baseball. 

Ultimately, the offense has been better in some areas and worse in others. But with the pitching staff giving San Diego such an advantage at home, it’s clear where the Padres would prefer to play. 

Winning the division would, of course, be the ideal path to gaining home-field advantage. With the Dodgers currently squaring off with the Phillies, there is an opportunity for San Diego to gain more ground in the NL West this week. Winning the division would also mean the Padres get to play the struggling Mets instead of the Cubs, who have been good all season. 

At the end of the day, the Padres will be happy to be returning to the playoffs either way. Still, with the division within reach, the Padres should aim for the NL West Title and the home-field advantage that comes along with it.

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