Running The Numbers On The Padres-Cubs Game One Matchup

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Dansby Swanson	R	35	34	10	1	0	2	5	1	11	.294	.314	.500	.814	0	0	0	0	0
2	Kyle Tucker	L	12	10	2	1	0	0	2	1	2	.200	.250	.300	.550	0	1	0	0	0
3	Ian Happ	B	11	10	3	1	0	0	0	1	6	.300	.364	.400	.764	0	0	0	0	0
4	Justin Turner	R	9	8	5	2	0	2	3	1	0	.625	.667	1.625	2.292	0	0	0	0	0
5	Reese McGuire	L	7	6	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	.333	.429	.333	.762	0	0	0	0	0
6	Carson Kelly	R	6	6	3	0	1	0	1	0	3	.500	.500	.833	1.333	0	0	0	0	0
7	Michael Busch	L	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	.200	.000	.200	0	0	0	0	0
8	Seiya Suzuki	R	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.200	.200	.200	.400	0	0	0	0	1
9	Willi Castro	B	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0	0	0
10	Nico Hoerner	R	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
11	Pete Crow-Armstrong	L	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	.333	.500	.333	.833	0	0	0	0	0
12	Matt Shaw	R	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 9/29/2025.

Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Xander Bogaerts	R	18	16	3	0	0	1	3	2	3	.188	.278	.375	.653	0	0	0	0	1
2	Manny Machado	R	14	13	5	2	0	0	3	0	3	.385	.357	.538	.896	0	1	0	0	0
3	Luis Arráez	L	9	7	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	.429	.556	.571	1.127	0	0	0	1	0
4	Freddy Fermin	R	7	7	2	1	0	0	2	0	3	.286	.286	.429	.714	0	0	0	0	0
5	Elias Díaz	R	6	5	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.400	.500	.400	.900	0	0	0	0	0
6	Fernando Tatis Jr.	R	6	6	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	.167	.167	.167	.333	0	0	0	0	0
7	Jackson Merrill	L	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
8	Jose Iglesias	R	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0	0	0
9	Jake Cronenworth	L	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 9/29/2025.

Defensive context
Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

Notes On Key Matchups

• Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.  
• Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
• Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

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