Padres Starter of the Year: Nick Pivetta

[Samuel Cozart]

 

When Nick Pivetta signed a four-year $55 million contract this offseason with the Padres, no one quite knew how big that deal would be for San Diego. In a year plagued with injuries to key starters, Pivetta stepped up to the occasion and was, without a doubt, the best starter this season for the Padres. 

Pivetta’s rise to the top of San Diego’s rotation was unexpected, but crucial to any of the Padres’ postseason hopes. With Joe Musgrove out for the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, as well as Yu Darvish and Michael King spending the majority of the season on the IL, someone had to fill the void on the mound. Even Dylan Cease, who was expected to be the Padres ace this season, had his fair share of struggles. Despite the tremendous uncertainty in the rotation, Pivetta stepped in and dealt a career season in his first with the Padres. 

Numbers-wise, this was the best season of the 32-year-old’s career and it’s not even close. In his tenth MLB season, Pivetta put up career-bests and led all Padres starters in the following statistics:

• 2.87 ERA
• 5.3 WAR
• 0.985 WHIP
• 3.50 FIP
• 13-5 record
• 181.2 IP

To put it into perspective, in his entire MLB career, Pivetta never achieved a sub-3.0 ERA, sub-1.0 WHIP, or a WAR above 3 until this season. Despite solid years in Boston and Philadelphia prior to signing with San Diego, Pivetta has never pitched close to the level we have seen this season. He was brought in by A.J. Preller to bring depth and stability to the rotation as a veteran, but has been so much more. 

Pivetta boasts a six pitch arsenal, featuring a four-seam fastball (46% usage), curveball (22% usage), sweeper (17% usage), cutter (9% usage), sinker (4% usage), and slider (2% usage). Out of his most used pitches, his four seamer and sweeper are particularly effective. On his four seamer, Pivetta generated a 24.1 Whiff% and just a .195 batting average. On the sweeper, he tallied an impressive 37.4 Whiff% and .157 batting average. 

On left-handed hitters, Pivetta keeps it simple, mostly dealing his four seamer and changeup. Against righties, he brings a more varied selection, activating that very effective sweeper, as well as sinkers and cutters. Overall, he shuts down hitters on both sides of the plate, allowing a .205 batting average against righties and just .185 against lefties. 

According to Baseball Savant, Pivetta burdens elite value, ranking in the 99th percentile of pitching run value, 99th percentile of fastball run value, and 97th percentile of breaking run value. Not too shabby for a guy who was originally brought in as a rotational depth piece. 

Going into the postseason, Pivetta is assuming a much bigger role for the Padres than initially believed. They will need him to continue tossing the best season of his career, especially with the rotation looking less steady than it did preseason. Unfortunately there is not much of a postseason sample size to go off of when trying to predict what Pivetta will bring to the Padres in October. 

Pivetta’s only postseason appearance came with the Red Sox in 2021, where he pitched just 13.2 innings across three games. However, his numbers in those games are encouraging. A 2.63 ERA and 1.024 WHIP highlight his brief postseason stint. Those are solid numbers, but if his breakout this season indicates anything, San Diego should expect Pivetta to blow them away this postseason. If the Padres want a shot at their first World Series title, he has to. 

In a season of injuries and uncertainty in the rotation for the Padres, Pivetta has stood out from the rest. He has been an unexpected hero for the Friars this season, blowing any expectations completely out of the water. His consistently high-level play this season has kept the team afloat in a season where any bluff from starting pitching could cause everything to crumble. 

Nobody saw it coming in April, but Nick Pivetta is your San Diego Padres starter of the year. 

 

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