Padres' Bullpen Stars As San Diego Forces Game Three In Wrigley

[Andy Johnson]

When the Padres traded to acquire Mason Miller at the deadline, I was skeptical. Did this team really need another reliever, already boasting a record three All-Star relievers in 2025? Was it really worth sending the Athletics the third-ranked overall prospect in baseball? 

As it turns out, yes. Miller has proved that this postseason. He had a signature moment with San Diego this afternoon, leading the charge with five straight strikeouts as the Padres' bullpen carried San Diego to victory. 

It was during this game that it really dawned on me. The Padres' 2025 playoff hopes always rested on the success of their bullpen. There was never a universe where San Diego's middling offense was going to carry this team on a deep postseason run. It was always going to come down to winning close, low-scoring games, and that meant San Diego would need a dominating bullpen. With that in mind, the Mason Miller trade makes more sense now than it did even in July. The Padres needed every out they could get from their relievers. 

Of course, it wasn't all the relievers. Let's look at the three big moments that helped the Padres win this game. 

#1: Manny Machado's two-run home run in the top of the fifth. WPA: .196
With one swing of the bat, Machado raised the Padres' chances of victory by almost 20%. It was the 12th home run of the All-Star third baseman's postseason career, and the 28th and 29th RBIs. Machado and the Padres' offense needed it badly. You could tell from the reactions of his teammates in the dugout after the bomb. There was a sense of relief, as if a weight had been lifted off the team. Asking the bullpen to protect a 1-0 lead for more than five innings is a tall order, but giving the pen a 3-0 lead felt a lot more comfortable. 

#2: Mason Miller's five strikeouts in a row. WPA: .094
Going into the bottom of the seventh inning, the Cubs, down 3-0, still had a respectable 12% chance to win the game, according to FanGraphs. By the time the seventh inning was over, that number had fallen to 6.7%. That's because Miller sat down three Cubs in order, striking out Seiya Suzuki, Carson Kelly, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Not only did he punch out three Cubs in a row, but he also took out the heart of their lineup. 

Then, he did it again in the eighth inning, striking out the first two Cubs to come to the plate, Dansby Swanson and Moisés Ballesteros. That lowered Chicago's chances of victory from 8.1% to 4.2%. Miller, in five at-bats, raised San Diego's chances of victory by 10%. 

#3: Adrian Morejon saves the fourth inning. WPA: .056
With two runners on base and two outs, the Padres went to Morejon in the bottom of the fourth inning, despite Dylan Cease's scoreless outing to that point. Morejon was tasked with protecting a one-run lead, and had the at-bat gone differently, we might be talking about an eliminated Padres' team right now. 

Instead, Morejon did what he needed to do, getting a groundout off the bat of the Cubs' young superstar outfielder, Pete Crow-Armstrong. That single out raised the Padres' chances of victory by 5.6% and prevented Chicago from scoring when they were threatening the most to do so.

Padres Bullpen Usage

	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Estrada	19	0	0	10	0	29
Morgan	0	21	0	0	0	21
Miller	17	0	0	13	27	57
Hart	0	0	0	0	0	0
Suárez	9	0	0	0	18	27
Morejón	8	0	0	9	33	50
Peralta	0	0	0	6	0	6
Rodríguez	0	21	0	0	0	21
Matsui	37	0	0	0	0	37
Vasquez	0	19	0	0	0	19

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