How Dansby Swanson Single-Handedly Stopped the Padres' Offense in NLWC

[Andy Johnson]

As it became clear the Padres would be headed to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card series, it always felt like an uphill battle awaited San Diego. The Cubs have been one of the best home teams in baseball all season, and the Padres' offense has been wildly inconsistent since the first pitch of Opening Day.

Still, if San Diego's bats got hot at the right time, they could take down the Cubs, especially with how dominant the Padres' arms had been. Instead, San Diego's offense died on the north side of Chicago, leading to one of the most embarrassing Wild Card series losses since the playoffs expanded. 

The Padres scored a total of five runs in three games against the Cubs. They mustered just one run in Game 1, three in Game 2, and one in the pivotal Game 3. Because of their inability to score, the team is heading home to San Diego without a chance to host a home playoff game. 

Why couldn't they score? Were the Chicago Cubs and their ninth-ranked pitching staff (by ERA) that good? Or were the Padres' bats that bad? Let's break it down by the numbers. 

In 105 plate appearances, the Padres reached base 25 times, averaging less than one baserunner per inning. The issue is that the majority of those 25 baserunners didn't make it past first base. San Diego managed 11 singles, five walks, and two hit batters. Their extra-base hits were not timely enough. San Diego hit five doubles and two home runs, but that was only enough for five runs scored in total. Their team OPS was .548, their team batting average was .189, and their team BABIP was .216. 

To their credit, the Padres were at least making contact. They only struck out 20 times, compared to Chicago, which struck out 35 times. San Diego's offense struck out less than any other team in the Wild Card round that played three games (the Dodgers struck out 15 times, but only played two games).  

Looking deeper, there were definitely a few missed opportunities that may have come down to bad luck, and an extremely talented shortstop on the other side of the field. 

In Game 3, Manny Machado's first-inning lineout was the hardest hit ball of the game, and had an expected batting average of .790, according to Baseball Savant. It was one of six times that the Padres hit a ball with an xBA above .500 and got out. In the top of the fourth, Luis Arraez lined out to Dansby Swanson on a ball with an XBA of .680. If Arraez had hustled to first base, he likely would have beaten Swanson's throw and scored on Jackson Merrill's double later in the inning. 

Swanson also robbed the Padres of a pair of singles in the sixth inning, making great plays against Arraez and Xander Bogaerts. They hit hard groundballs with an xBA of .550 and .520, respectively. 

There was another crucial at-bat in the seventh inning, which saw Nico Hoerner rob Jose Iglesias of a single that could have scored Xander Bogaerts. Igelsias' lineout had an xBA of .560. 

The Cubs, on the other hand, reached base every time they hit a ball with an xBA over .400 in Game 3.

It feels like a mixture of bad luck and incredible defense from the Cubs that sunk the Padres' offense in the final contest of the series. But what about their Game 1 loss? Incredibly, the same thing. 

In that first game, the Padres hit eight balls with an xBA of .490 or higher. Five were outs. The Cubs hit just two balls with an xBA of .490 or higher, and both were hits (one of which was a home run). 

Once again, a few of the Padres' robbed hits came in big spots, and once again, Dansby Swanson was the man to blame. In the second inning, with a runner on third and nobody out, Swanson robbed on a groundout hit 101.2 MPH and with a .490 xBA. If that ball gets through the infield, the Padres would have scored their second run of the day and had a runner on with nobody out. Instead, the Cubs retired the next two batters, and the Padres left the second inning with a 1-0 lead. 

Swanson robbed O'Hearn again in a crucial at-bat in the fourth inning. With runners on the corners and one out, O'Hearn popped up into the left-center field gap, a ball with an .840 xBA. Not on Swanson's watch. He made the catch, and the Cubs again got out of a jam unscathed.

 

Swanson single-handedly saved multiple runs for the Cubs in both of those games, and was the biggest reason why San Diego's BABIP was so low in the series. 

While the offense certainly needed to do more, they deserve at least a little credit. They put the ball in play and got runners on the basepaths. They just continued to fall victim to a talented shortstop who was a magnet to the ball whenever it was hit his way.

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