Five Best Free-Agent First Basemen for Padres to Target

[Andy Johnson]

With Luis Arraez set to depart in free agency, the San Diego Padres will need a new first baseman in 2026. The first base market this offseason should be very active, so there will be plenty of opportunities to replace light-hitting Arraez. Here are the five best fits.

1. Cody Bellinger

Obviously, Bellinger would cost a lot of money, and it's still not clear exactly how much the Padres are going to be willing to spend this year. However, a player like Bellinger makes too much sense for San Diego. He's a high-risk, high-reward type of player with all kinds of talent—exactly the type of player AJ Preller likes to target. 

Bellinger is versatile. He played mostly in the outfield for the Yankees last year, but he can play first base at a solid level as well, and in this case, that's where the Padres would need him more. 

The trouble with Bellinger is that the Padres, essentially, would have to buy high on the 30-year-old, which is probably a mistake given the peaks and valleys of his career. On the other hand, Bellinger has not had a legitimately bad season since leaving the Dodgers after 2022. He's been worth 12 bWAR from 2023-25, with a 125 OPS+ and good defense (12 Defensive Runs Saved this past season). There's a floor worth believing in, especially if his ceiling remains anywhere near his MVP level in 2019.

2. Pete Alonso 

Alonso might be even more far-fetched of an idea than Bellinger simply because of how much he'd cost, but you can't convince me that Alonso would not be the best option from a pure skill perspective. 

The Padres need more power in their lineup. They were below average in 2024 and got even worse at hitting for power in 2025. Enter Alonso, who has arguably been the game's most consistent power hitter that doesn't own multiple MVPs. Bringing him in would immediately inject 35+ home runs into the San Diego lineup. 

For what it's worth, Alonso has actually been very consistent on a year-to-year basis. While he does occasionally enter slumps that lower his numbers, the Polar Bear has never seen his OPS+ dip below 122. That is impressive for a guy who has played seven years in the big leagues. 

Why would the Padres not want to sign a guy like Alonso, who has been consistent and is elite at the one thing the Padres have been missing in their lineup for the past few years? Likely, they'd be deterred by the length Alonso is looking for. It was reported that Alonso is looking for a long-term deal around seven years in length. That would pay Alonso through his age-37 season. San Diego simply can not afford to get hooked on another long-term contract. It already looks like Xander Bogaerts is a bust, and Manny Machado is going to slow down at some point. The juice may just not be worth the squeeze here.

3. Josh Naylor 

Naylor is sort of the antithesis to Arraez; where the latter has shortcomings and is more of a one-dimensional player, Naylor is much more of a complete hitter.

Naylor, for example, is (much) better at hitting for power. Naylor is better at baserunning and base stealing. He's a better defender, and he has better plate discipline. The only thing that Arraez does better than Naylor is his insane ability to make contact on nearly every ball thrown to him. A good trait, but Naylor is the better overall player, and Naylor absolutely shone in the postseason with the Mariners. 

Naylor also makes more sense financially than either Alonso or Bellinger. He's likely going to end up with a three-to-five-year deal at around $15 million per season, which is affordable for San Diego. 

My favorite Josh Naylor stat is that he stole 30 bases in 2025 despite being in the third percentile for sprint speed. Sometimes, Josh Naylor does not make sense. Sometimes, baseball does not make sense. 

4. Munetaka Murakami

Murakami is listed as a third baseman, but it sounds like his third base defense leaves a lot to be desired. That means he has future first baseman written all over him. 

Again, this probably depends on where his market lands. How much are the Dodgers willing to pay? How much would a team like Seattle be willing to pay, as they are set to lose both their first baseman and third baseman to free agency? Murakami might be one of the hottest commodities on the market this offseason. Or, he might not. Perhaps the Dodgers decide they are okay with Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman at the infield corners. Perhaps the Mariners pivot to internal options at third base while re-signing Naylor to play first base. Maybe Murakami's poor defense weighs down his market, and suddenly, he is a relatively cheap option for San Diego. 

Or maybe I'm just hoping for what can never be. Murakami was an excellent player in the NPB, with a .951 OPS across eight seasons there. And he won't even turn 26 until February.

Murakami has the potential to be the next great Asian-born player to come to the United States and absolutely tear the league up. However, there is probably also a scenario where the game catches up to him in the States, and he never reaches the same dominant peak that he has reached in Japan. The risk here is high, but the reward could be astronomical.

5. Ryan O'Hearn 

O'Hearn could definitely be slated for a return to the Padres. After trading for him at the deadline in 2025, O'Hearn did slump a bit, but he finished the season strong. He is coming off a 2.4 bWAR season in '25, and a 2.0 bWAR season '24. The last time his OPS+ was below 100 was in 2022. Simply put, O'Hearn has been a good hitter for a while now. 

At the same time, he should be considered more of a platoon bat than a full-time starter. O'Hearn struggles against left-handed pitching, so much so that the Orioles did not trust him to start against southpaws. That means having to carry a second first baseman on the roster, which might not be ideal. 

At the same time, O'Hearn is a good player, and he might fly under the radar this offseason with so many other big names at first base and DH. He's already been in San Diego, and he likely would not cost all that much to bring back. It's certainly more of a Plan B than any of the Plan A's above, but there is sense to keeping tabs on O'Hearn's market this winter.

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