Willson Contreras a Sensible (But Complicated) Trade Target for San Diego Padres

[Randy Holt]

Regardless of the shape the winter takes for the San Diego Padres in a financial sense, they have clear roster needs. On the positional side, they need a first baseman and they need a designated hitter (assuming they don't create a vacancy by moving a different position player via trade). Gavin Sheets figures to fill one of those roles, at least in a timeshare situation. Considering his defensive shortcomings as a full-time player, one imagines he's best suited for work as the extra hitter above a permanent position. 

Which means that first base stands as the largest positional need for the Padres as they venture into the winter months. 

The Padres primarily relied upon Luis Arráez at the "3" spot in the field in 2025. He logged nearly 1,000 innings at the position last year, with the eye test serving him a bit better than his -6 Outs Above Average. While he never looked quite as bad as the numbers might indicate, his light-hitting skill set was never meant for a position which demands a certain degree of power. The team's trade deadline acquisition of Ryan O'Hearn didn't do much to improve the offensive side, nor did it eat away too much from Arráez's time. 

The 2025 context notwithstanding, the Padres embarked on this offseason without a solution at first for 2026. Each of Arráez and O'Hearn are free agents and neither appears terribly likely to return given their respective struggles in various areas last season, as well as what they might be expecting in their next contract. Which means that, whether via trade or free-agent signing, the team needs to seek an outside source in order to fill that vacancy.

Free agent candidates are likely out. Josh Naylor already re-signed in Seattle on a massive five-year deal. Pete Alonso will demand much more beyond what the Padres would be willing to offer. Many of the remaining options are players that linger around replacement level or aren't anything beyond bench bats at this stage of their career. Which means that if the Padres are seeking a full-time solution to their first base situation, it's going to have to come via trade; a complicated situation for a team sitting at the bottom of the farm system rankings. 

Which is why St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Willson Contreras may offer the most effective answer. Such a move would be the truest response to the need within the lineup. Though even that answer is not without complications, especially considering that this is the same Contreras you might remember from this interaction with the Padres in 2025: 

One never quite knows how much on-field turmoil like this impacts whether a player would play for the opposite franchise. We've seen players become declarative about not joining division rivals (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., for instance). But, candidly, if Contreras — who we're speaking about in this manner because he has a full no-trade clause — was hung up on joining teams with which he's had some sort of spat, that would drastically limit his market. He's a fiery player who joined his former club's biggest rival in St. Louis in free agency. It's hard to imagine this instance would deter him too much from joining a contender. 

But regardless of what unfolded in July of this year, Willson Contreras is very much a player in which the San Diego Padres should have interest. He's been a remarkably consistent player, even upon his transition to first base, maintaining a career 122 wRC+ and .202 ISO to compliment a .258/.352/.459 slash. As much as a deal in itself could be complicated, the fit is not. The Padres need right-handed power at first base. Contreras offers exactly that. 

Of course, you have to immediately navigate the aforementioned full no-trade clause. That's issue No. 1. Though if the Padres remain in contention in the National League, it's hard to imagine that as a significant hurdle to overcome. The Cardinals are rebuilding or retooling on some level to the point where the remainder of his contract could be spent with a non-contending club. One imagines the opportunity to compete in America's Finest City™ is an opportunity that the majority of players would find enticing.

The contract represents the second complication. His deal, which runs through 2027 (with a 2028 club option), carries a $17.5 million AAV. As much as you'd love that level of cost-certainty for a steady bat in your lineup, whether the Padres can fit that into their payroll remains to be seen, given their much-more-significant needs that exist on the mound. But cost-certainty is cost-certainty, and that feels like an affordable price that fits within your contention window. If they can make the money fit, then it only enhances the logic. 

That, however, leads us to the third complication. The Padres have to have the prospects with which to part that St. Louis would find enticing. You're obviously not talking about one of the very elite bats that would require an elite farm system. But you are talking about an upper-tier hitter at a position of clear need. Even if the Cardinals are looking to get money off their books, it's not as if they're set to give Contreras away for the sake of freeing up money amidst a retool period. It will require at least one legitimate prospect or a volume in the way the Padres approached their deadline deal with Baltimore. 

In short, a hypothetical pursuit of Willson Contreras is the most logical position-player deal the team could pursue this winter. They need help on the right side of the plate. They have a vacancy at first base. Contreras offers a medium-term solution on both fronts. But they'll have to overcome a handful of complications toward reaching the logical path. Of course, if it was an easy process, then we wouldn't be talking about the San Diego Padres.

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