Why the Padres Should Trade Away Nick Pivetta, Even After Adding Michael King

[Andy Johnson]

At face value, the Nick Pivetta trade rumors make no sense for the San Diego Padres.

We're talking about a rotation that has already lost Dylan Cease to free agency. The same rotation that will be without the injured Yu Darvish all season, and now features Joe Musgrove, who hasn't pitched since the end of the 2024 season. 

Currently, San Diego has Pivetta alongside Musgrove, Randy Vasquez, and JP Sears projected to be in their rotation for 2026. Plus, they just signed Michael King back, which could make Pivetta even more expendable. Of course, even with King in tow, that rotation is not a top staff in the league, with Pivetta as its ace. So, why are the Padres listening to offers on the right-hander?

The truth is, it might make more sense than fans think. 

Pivetta's career stats scream "one-year-wonder." His previous career-high in bWAR was 2.5 in 2022, before breaking out for 5.3 bWAR in 2025. His best ERA was 4.04 in 2023, before posting a 2.87 mark in 2025. Likewise, his best FIP was 3.79, back in 2018, before finishing with a 3.49 FIP in 2025 (notably, much higher than his ERA). His WHIP fell to a career-best 0.985, blowing his previous best mark of 1.121 out of the water. The list goes on and on.

The FIP/ERA comparison presents an interesting picture for Pivetta. From 2017-2024, Pivetta had a 4.36 FIP and a 4.76 ERA. His career FIP was nearly half a run better than his ERA. In a single-season sample, that would be considered bad luck, but over an eight-year period, it can be explained by the fact that Pivetta is a guy who gets hit hard. 

In his career, according to Baseball Savant, opposing hitters have a 9.4% barrel rate (compared to a 7.2% league-average). They've had an average exit velocity of 89.7 MPH, and a 40.5% hard-hit rate against Pivetta (compared to a 37% league-average). 

FIP is a stat based on strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit batters. While he's not a strikeout artist, Pivetta has always had solid K/BB ratios and has never hit more than six batters in a season, so his FIP tends to be solid compared to his ERA. Usually, when a pitcher's ERA is higher than his FIP, it means his defense was bad and he got unlucky, but this is a long-term trend for Pivetta. His FIP was lower than his ERA in seven of his eight seasons. Did he have bad luck all seven seasons? Or were the Phillies and Red Sox defenses awful during his time with both clubs? 

Or could it be that Pivetta, being a pitcher who allowed more hard-contact than league average, made things harder for his defense? From 2017-2024, he allowed a .304 BABIP, while the league average hovered between .291 and .300. 

All of that is to say, Pivetta probably wasn't falling victim to bad BABIP luck and bad defense; he was falling victim to being one of the hardest-hit pitchers in the league. And that did not change in 2025. Pivetta allowed a 10.9% barrel rate (10th percentile), a 45% hard-hit rate (15th percentile), and a 90.3 average exit velocity (22nd percentile). Those were no better rates than he allowed in previous seasons, yet the results changed. In 2025, his ERA was 2.87, significantly lower than his 3.49 FIP, despite the underlying metrics staying almost exactly the same. 

What does that mean? It likely means Pivetta was not getting unlucky from 2017-2024; it means he got extremely lucky in 2025 and will probably regress back to the mean in 2026. If Pivetta is a one-year wonder, it makes sense for San Diego to sell high on their most tradeable asset.

But what if he isn't? Will the Padres regret trading Pivetta if he has another strong 2026 season? 

Well, probably not, because Pivetta has a contract opt-out after 2026. If he turns in another All-Star level campaign next season, he will likely opt out of his deal, looking for a big payday before his career ends. 

That effectively makes it a lose-lose scenario for the Padres if they want to keep Pivetta. If they keep him and he turns out to be a one-year-wonder, they missed their chance to trade a No. 3 starter for the price of an ace. If they keep him and he continues to pitch like an ace, they will lose him next offseason and get nothing in return. 

That's why, as odd as it is to be shopping the ace of a rotation that is lacking in impact talent, it does make sense to offload Pivetta if the right deal emerges.

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